IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v35y2015icp38-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Growth and volatility in resource-rich countries: Does diversification help?

Author

Listed:
  • Joya, Omar

Abstract

This paper studies the “natural resources – volatility – growth” link by evaluating the role of economic diversification. I study whether resource-rich countries are able to offset the volatility triggering effects of natural resources by diversifying their economies. Using input–output data, I construct an indicator that captures diversification of the production structure of the economy and density of inter-industry linkages. The results show that resource abundance exerts negative impact on growth through the volatility channel. While the direct effects of natural resources on growth are positive, their adverse indirect effects through volatility could be larger. I find that productive diversification offsets the volatility impact of natural resources. When diversification is controlled for, the negative growth impact of volatility induced by resource abundance disappears. However, the results do not hold true if export concentration measure is used instead of productive diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Joya, Omar, 2015. "Growth and volatility in resource-rich countries: Does diversification help?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:35:y:2015:i:c:p:38-55
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2015.10.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X15000478
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2015.10.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederick Van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "The Volatility Curse: Revisiting the Paradox of Plenty," CESifo Working Paper Series 2616, CESifo.
    2. Paul B. Siegel & Jeffrey Alwang & Thomas G. Johnson, 1994. "Toward An Improved Portfolio Variance Measure Of Regional Economic Stability," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 24(1), pages 71-86, Summer.
    3. Murshed, Syed Mansoob & Serino, Leandro Antonio, 2011. "The pattern of specialization and economic growth: The resource curse hypothesis revisited," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 151-161, June.
    4. Venables, Anthony J. & Maloney, William & Kokko, Ari & Bravo Ortega, Claudio & Lederman, Daniel & Rigobón, Roberto & De Gregorio, José & Czelusta, Jesse & Jayasuriya, Shamila A. & Blomström, Magnus & , 2007. "Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 350.
    5. Olivier Cadot & Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2011. "Export Diversification: What's behind the Hump?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 590-605, May.
    6. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 5398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
    8. Chris Papageorgiou & Nikola Spatafora, 2012. "Economic Diversification in LICs; Stylized Facts and Macroeconomic Implications," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 12/13, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Arvind Subramanian, 2013. "Addressing the Natural Resource Curse: An Illustration from Nigeria," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 22(4), pages 570-615, August.
    10. Jean Arcand & Enrico Berkes & Ugo Panizza, 2015. "Too much finance?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 105-148, June.
    11. Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism and Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397.
    12. Jean Imbs & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Stages of Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 63-86, March.
    13. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 845-859.
    14. anonymous, 2005. "Overview of the Federal Reserve System," Monograph, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 2005ootfr.
    15. Mr. Chris Papageorgiou & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2012. "Economic Diversification in LICs: Stylized Facts and Macroeconomic Implications," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2012/013, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Norman V. Loayza & Claudio Raddatz, 2007. "The Structural Determinants of External Vulnerability," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 359-387, October.
    17. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    18. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial development and the instability of open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1077-1106, September.
    19. Andrey LAUNOV & Olaf POSCH & Klaus WÄLDE, 2012. "On the estimation of the volatility-growth link," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2012009, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    20. Frederick Van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "The Volatility Curse: Revisiting the Paradox of Plenty," CESifo Working Paper Series 2616, CESifo.
    21. Alesina, Alberto & Devleeschauwer, Arnaud & Easterly, William & Kurlat, Sergio & Wacziarg, Romain, 2003. "Fractionalization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 155-194, June.
    22. Ndiamé Diop & Daniela Marotta & Jaime de Melo, 2012. "Natural Resource Abundance, Growth, and Diversification in the Middle East and North Africa : The Effects of Natural Resources and the Role of Policies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 11956, December.
    23. Mr. Carlos A Leite & Jens Weidmann, 1999. "Does Mother Nature Corrupt? Natural Resources, Corruption, and Economic Growth," IMF Working Papers 1999/085, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Imbs, Jean, 2007. "Growth and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1848-1862, October.
    25. Mona Haddad & Jamus Jerome Lim & Cosimo Pancaro & Christian Saborowski, 2013. "Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(2), pages 765-790, May.
    26. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    27. Rick Van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "The Volatility Curse and Financial Development: Revisiting the paradox of plenty," OxCarre Working Papers 024, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    28. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 1990-24, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    29. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim & Coury, Tarek, 2003. "Trade openness, investment instability and terms-of-trade volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 285-306, December.
    30. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    31. Jeffrey Edwards & Benhua Yang, 2009. "An empirical refinement of the relationship between growth and volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1331-1343.
    32. John E. Wagner & Steven C. Deller, 1998. "Measuring the Effects of Economic Diversity on Growth and Stability," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 74(4), pages 541-556.
    33. Olivier Massol & Albert Banal-Estañol, 2011. "Export diversification and resource-based industrialization : the case of natural gas," Working Papers hal-01031565, HAL.
    34. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    35. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    36. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    37. Stephen Cecchetti & Enisse Kharroubi, 2012. "Reassessing the impact of finance on growth," BIS Working Papers 381, Bank for International Settlements.
    38. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Openness, Volatility and the Risk Content of Exports," 2006 Meeting Papers 86, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    39. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1999. "A Mixed Blessing," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 204-225, June.
    40. Davis, Graham A., 1995. "Learning to love the Dutch disease: Evidence from the mineral economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(10), pages 1765-1779, October.
    41. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    42. Michael Bleaney & Håvard Halland, 2009. "The Resource Curse and Fiscal Policy Volatility," Discussion Papers 09/09, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    43. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
    44. Michael Alexeev & Robert Conrad, 2009. "The Elusive Curse of Oil," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 586-598, August.
    45. Manfred Lenzen & Daniel Moran & Keiichiro Kanemoto & Arne Geschke, 2013. "Building Eora: A Global Multi-Region Input-Output Database At High Country And Sector Resolution," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 20-49, March.
    46. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Energy and Resource Allocation: A Dynamic Model of the "Dutch Disease"," NBER Working Papers 0852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Heiko Hesse, 2008. "Export Diversification and Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28040, December.
    48. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    49. James D. Fearon, 2005. "Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 483-507, August.
    50. Wundt, Bruce D. & Martin, Linda R., 1993. "Minimizing Employment Instability: A Model of Industrial Expansion with Input-Output Considerations," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 23(1), pages 1-20.
    51. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    52. Oecd, 2006. "Decoupling: A Conceptual Overview," OECD Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 5(11), pages 1-31.
    53. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hailu, Degol & Kipgen, Chinpihoi, 2017. "The Extractives Dependence Index (EDI)," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 251-264.
    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2014. "The oil curse, institutional quality, and growth in MENA countries: Evidence from time-varying cointegration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-9.
    3. Henri, Pr Atangana Ondoa, 2019. "Natural resources curse: A reality in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Collier, Paul & Goderis, Benedikt, 2012. "Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1241-1260.
    5. Nouf Nasser Alsharif, 2017. "Three essays on growth and economic diversification in resource-rich countries," Economics PhD Theses 0317, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Rabah Arezki & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Do Natural Resources Depress Income Per Capita?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 504-521, August.
    7. Baena, César & Sévi, Benoît & Warrack, Allan, 2012. "Funds from non-renewable energy resources: Policy lessons from Alaska and Alberta," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 569-577.
    8. Lessmann, Christian & Steinkraus, Arne, 2019. "The geography of natural resources, ethnic inequality and civil conflicts," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 33-51.
    9. Rabah Arezki & Frederick van der Ploeg, 2007. "Can the Natural Resource Curse Be Turned into a Blessing? The Role of Trade Policies and Institutions," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/35, European University Institute.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad & Ahad, Muhammad & Tahir, Iqbal, 2018. "Is natural resource abundance a stimulus for financial development in the USA?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 223-232.
    11. Adrian Boos & Karin Holm‐Müller, 2012. "A theoretical overview of the relationship between the resource curse and genuine savings as an indicator for “weak” sustainability," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 145-159, August.
    12. Seghir, Majda & Damette, Olivier, 2013. "Natural resource curse: a non linear approach in a panel of oil exporting countries," MPRA Paper 51604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    14. Mignamissi, Dieudonné & Malah Kuete, Yselle Flora, 2021. "Resource rents and happiness on a global perspective: The resource curse revisited," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Boniface Ngah Epo & Dief Reagen Nochi Faha, 2020. "Natural Resources, Institutional Quality, and Economic Growth: an African Tale," Post-Print halshs-02157588, HAL.
    16. Daniel Lederman & William F. Maloney, 2012. "Does What You Export Matter? In Search of Empirical Guidance for Industrial Policies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9371, December.
    17. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    18. Boyce, John R. & Herbert Emery, J.C., 2011. "Is a negative correlation between resource abundance and growth sufficient evidence that there is a "resource curse"?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13, March.
    19. Anne D. Boschini & Jan Pettersson & Jesper Roine, 2007. "Resource Curse or Not: A Question of Appropriability," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(3), pages 593-617, September.
    20. Olivier Cadot & Céline Carrère & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn, 2013. "Trade Diversification, Income, And Growth: What Do We Know?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 790-812, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diversification; Macroeconomic volatility; Natural resources; Resource curse;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:35:y:2015:i:c:p:38-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.