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An empirical refinement of the relationship between growth and volatility

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  • Jeffrey Edwards
  • Benhua Yang

Abstract

The link between business cycle volatility and the long-run growth rate has received increasing attention in the literature over the last ten years. Yet neither is there a theoretical consensus nor consistent empirical evidence that would lead us to believe the relationship is positive, negative or nonexistent either within broadly defined regions or over time. This study investigates a possible cause for this phenomenon. What we find is that out of 14 popularly defined sub regions, only 7 can be constrained over time within the respective sub region, while only two broadly-defined regional classifications are justified. We did find that the grouping of OECD countries is statistically valid, but only if the relationship is allowed to vary over time. We suggest a refinement of the current empirical work that takes into account both more narrowly defined regional and time parametric heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Edwards & Benhua Yang, 2009. "An empirical refinement of the relationship between growth and volatility," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1331-1343.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:41:y:2009:i:11:p:1331-1343
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840601019307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Spanos,Aris, 1999. "Probability Theory and Statistical Inference," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424080.
    2. Imbs, Jean, 2002. "Why the Link Between Volatility and Growth is Both Positive and Negative," CEPR Discussion Papers 3561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2001. "On the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility in Learning-by-Doing Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 01, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    4. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1991. "Technology Commitment and the Cost of Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    1. Joya, Omar, 2015. "Growth and volatility in resource-rich countries: Does diversification help?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 38-55.
    2. Andrey Launov & Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2012. "On the estimation of the volatility-growth link," CREATES Research Papers 2012-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Jeffrey Alan Edwards & Ronald Gilbert & Juan Sherwell, 2010. "Accounting for regional variance heterogeneity of growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(28), pages 3585-3596.
    4. Ghulam MOHEY-UD-DIN* & Muhammad Wasif SIDDIQI**, 2017. "GDP FLUCTUATIONS AND LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH: A Study of Selected South Asian Countries," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 41-66.

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