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Export Diversification:What's behind the Hump?

Author

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  • Olivier Cadot

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Céline Carrere

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Vanessa Strauss-Khan

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The paper explores the evolution of export diversification patterns along the economic development path. Using a large database with 159 countries over 17 years at the HS6 level of disaggregation (4'998 product lines) we look for action at the "intensive" and "extensive" margins (diversification of export values among active product lines and by addition of new product lines respectively) using various export concentration indices and the number of active export lines. We also look at new product introduction as an indicator of "export-entrepreneurship". We find a hump-shaped pattern of export diversification similar to what Imbs and Wacziarg (2003) found for production and employment. Low and Middle income countries diversify mostly along the extensive margin whereas high income countries diversify along the intensive margin and ultimately re-concentrate their exports towards fewer products. Such hump-shaped pattern is consistent with the conjecture that countries travel across diversification cones as discussed in Schott (2003, 2004) and Xiang (2007).

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Cadot & Céline Carrere & Vanessa Strauss-Khan, 2011. "Export Diversification:What's behind the Hump?," CERDI Working papers halshs-00556999, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:cdiwps:halshs-00556999
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Liu, Xiaohui & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "Export diversification and exchange-rate regimes: Evidences from 72 developing countries," MPRA Paper 66448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    5. Frédéric Docquier & Lucas Guichard & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2022. "Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 10068, CESifo.
    6. Bahar, Dany & Özgüzel, Cem & Hauptmann, Andreas & Rapoport, Hillel, 2019. "Migration and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia," IZA Discussion Papers 12412, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Rabah Arezki & Lili Mottaghi & Andrea Barone & Rachel Yuting Fan & Youssouf Kiendrebeogo & Daniel Lederman, "undated". "Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2018," World Bank Publications - Reports 29649, The World Bank Group.
    8. Ricardo Arguello, 2017. "Trade diversification in Colombia, 1991-2011," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID, vol. 36(71), pages 345-378, July.
    9. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2017. "Export Upgrading and the Extent of Structural Change in Tax Revenue in Developing Countries," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(1), pages 27-58, June.
    10. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2022. "Export diversification and financial openness," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 675-717, October.
    11. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    12. Janet Koech & Mark A. Wynne, 2017. "Diversification and Specialization of U.S. States," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 63-91, Winter.
    13. Coniglio, Nicola D. & Vurchio, Davide & Cantore, Nicola & Clara, Michele, 2021. "On the evolution of comparative advantage: Path-dependent versus path-defying changes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    14. Orazio Angelini & Matthieu Cristelli & Andrea Zaccaria & Luciano Pietronero, 2016. "The complex dynamics of products and its asymptotic properties," Papers 1610.00274, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    15. Dany Bahar & Andreas Hauptmann & Cem Özgüzel & Hillel Rapoport, 2018. "Let their Knowledge Flow: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia," CESifo Working Paper Series 7371, CESifo.
    16. Melise Jaud & Madina Kukenova & Martin Strieborny, 2021. "Stock Market Liberalizations and Export Dynamics," Working Papers 2021_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    17. Daniel Lederman & William F. Maloney, 2012. "Does What You Export Matter? In Search of Empirical Guidance for Industrial Policies," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9371.
    18. Romina Kazandjian & Lisa Kolovich & Kalpana Kochhar & Monique Newiak, 2019. "Gender Equality and Economic Diversification," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-24, April.
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    20. Saurabh Mishra & Robert Koopman & Giuditta De-Prato & Anand Rao & Israel Osorio-Rodarte & Julie Kim & Nikola Spatafora & Keith Strier & Andrea Zaccaria, 2021. "AI Specialization for Pathways of Economic Diversification," Papers 2103.11042, arXiv.org.

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