IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v68y2014icp146-157.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector

Author

Listed:
  • McPherson, Madeleine
  • Karney, Bryan

Abstract

Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama׳s electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail.

Suggested Citation

  • McPherson, Madeleine & Karney, Bryan, 2014. "Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama׳s electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 146-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:68:y:2014:i:c:p:146-157
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514000330
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.01.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ghanadan, Rebecca & Koomey, Jonathan G., 2005. "Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1117-1142, June.
    2. Shin, Ho-Chul & Park, Jin-Won & Kim, Ho-Seok & Shin, Eui-Soon, 2005. "Environmental and economic assessment of landfill gas electricity generation in Korea using LEAP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1261-1270, July.
    3. Song, Ho-Jun & Lee, Seungmoon & Maken, Sanjeev & Ahn, Se-Woong & Park, Jin-Won & Min, Byoungryul & Koh, Wongun, 2007. "Environmental and economic assessment of the chemical absorption process in Korea using the LEAP model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 5109-5116, October.
    4. Mulugetta, Yacob & Mantajit, Nathinee & Jackson, Tim, 2007. "Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3256-3269, June.
    5. repec:idb:brikps:81081 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Bautista, Santiago, 2012. "A sustainable scenario for Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050 and its costs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 331-340.
    7. Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Chen, Jining, 2007. "Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6445-6456, December.
    8. Jun, Sooyoung & Lee, Seungmoon & Park, Jin-Won & Jeong, Suk-Jae & Shin, Ho-Chul, 2010. "The assessment of renewable energy planning on CO2 abatement in South Korea," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 471-477.
    9. Shabbir, Rabia & Ahmad, Sheikh Saeed, 2010. "Monitoring urban transport air pollution and energy demand in Rawalpindi and Islamabad using leap model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2323-2332.
    10. Huang, Yophy & Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey & Peng, Chieh-Yu, 2011. "The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6790-6803.
    11. Michael Bartels & Christoph Gatzen & Markus Peek & Walter Schulz & Ralf Wissen & Andreas Jansen & Jens Peter Molly & Bernd Neddermann & Hans-Paul Gerch & Eckehard Grebe & Yvonne Saßnick & Wilhelm Win, 2006. "Planning of the grid integration of wind energy in Germany onshore and offshore up to the year 2020," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 25(3/4), pages 257-275.
    12. Phdungsilp, Aumnad, 2010. "Integrated energy and carbon modeling with a decision support system: Policy scenarios for low-carbon city development in Bangkok," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4808-4817, September.
    13. Milligan, Michael & Porter, Kevin, 2006. "The Capacity Value of Wind in the United States: Methods and Implementation," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 91-99, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahanchian, Mohammad & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel, 2014. "Energy demand, emissions forecasts and mitigation strategies modeled over a medium-range horizon: The case of the land transportation sector in Metro Manila," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 615-629.
    2. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    3. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    4. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Assessing greenhouse gas emissions in Estonia's energy system," MPRA Paper 66105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Panagiotis, 2015. "Scenario analysis on greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Southeast Balkans' energy system," MPRA Paper 65280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Subramanyam, Veena & Kumar, Amit & Talaei, Alireza & Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain, 2017. "Energy efficiency improvement opportunities and associated greenhouse gas abatement costs for the residential sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 795-807.
    7. Vicente Sebastian Espinoza & Veronica Guayanlema & Javier Mart nez-G mez, 2018. "Energy Efficiency Plan Benefits in Ecuador: Long-range Energy Alternative Planning Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 52-54.
    8. Chuan Tian & Guohui Feng & Shuai Li & Fuqiang Xu, 2019. "Scenario Analysis on Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions Reduction Potential in Building Heating Sector at Community Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-26, September.
    9. Young-Sun Jeong, 2017. "Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO 2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-16, March.
    10. Kale, Rajesh V. & Pohekar, Sanjay D., 2014. "Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-13.
    11. Dagher, Leila & Ruble, Isabella, 2011. "Modeling Lebanon’s electricity sector: Alternative scenarios and their implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 4315-4326.
    12. Qunli Wu & Chenyang Peng, 2016. "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, November.
    13. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2016. "Introducing MOZLEAP: An integrated long-run scenario model of the emerging energy sector of Mozambique," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 275-289.
    14. Sana Bashir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Sajid Rashid Ahmad, 2018. "Low-Emission Modeling for Energy Demand in the Household Sector: A Study of Pakistan as a Developing Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Awopone, Albert K. & Zobaa, Ahmed F. & Banuenumah, Walter, 2017. "Techno-economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion plan of Ghana," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 13-22.
    16. Hasan Volkan Oral & Hasan Saygin, 2019. "Simulating the future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of Turkish cement industry up to 2030 in a global context," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(8), pages 1461-1482, December.
    17. Liu, Lei & Wang, Ke & Wang, Shanshan & Zhang, Ruiqin & Tang, Xiaoyan, 2018. "Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 382-396.
    18. Park, Nyun-Bae & Yun, Sun-Jin & Jeon, Eui-Chan, 2013. "An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 288-296.
    19. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    20. Logan, Kathryn G. & Nelson, John D. & Brand, Christian & Hastings, Astley, 2021. "Phasing in electric vehicles: Does policy focusing on operating emission achieve net zero emissions reduction objectives?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 100-114.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:68:y:2014:i:c:p:146-157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.