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Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030

Author

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  • Qunli Wu

    () (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

  • Chenyang Peng

    () (Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

Abstract

In this paper, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model is constructed to simulate six scenarios for forecasting national electricity demand in China. The results show that in 2020 the total electricity demand will reach 6407.9~7491.0 billion KWh, and will be 6779.9~10,313.5 billion KWh in 2030. Moreover, under the assumption of power production just meeting the social demand and considering the changes in the scale and technical structure of power industry, this paper simulates two scenarios to estimate carbon emissions and carbon intensity till 2030, with 2012 as the baseline year. The results indicate that the emissions intervals are 4074.16~4692.52 million tCO 2 in 2020 and 3948.43~5812.28 million tCO 2 in 2030, respectively. Carbon intensity is 0.63~0.64 kg CO 2 /KWh in 2020 and 0.56~0.58 kg CO 2 /KWh in 2030. In order to accelerate carbon reduction, the future work should focus on making a more stringent criterion on the intensity of industrial power consumption and expanding the proportion of power generation using clean energy, large capacity, and high efficiency units.

Suggested Citation

  • Qunli Wu & Chenyang Peng, 2016. "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:9:y:2016:i:12:p:988-:d:83771
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Song, Yan & Sun, Junjie & Zhang, Ming & Su, Bin, 2020. "Using the Tapio-Z decoupling model to evaluate the decoupling status of China's CO2 emissions at provincial level and its dynamic trend," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-129.
    2. Ma, Jia-Jun & Du, Gang & Xie, Bai-Chen, 2019. "CO2 emission changes of China's power generation system: Input-output subsystem analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Peng Wang & Meng Li, 2019. "Scenario Analysis in the Electric Power Industry under the Implementation of the Electricity Market Reform and a Carbon Policy in China," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(11), pages 1-26, June.
    4. Lin Zhu & Lichun He & Peipei Shang & Yingchun Zhang & Xiaojun Ma, 2018. "Influencing Factors and Scenario Forecasts of Carbon Emissions of the Chinese Power Industry: Based on a Generalized Divisia Index Model and Monte Carlo Simulation," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(9), pages 1-26, September.
    5. Wang, Juan & Hu, Mingming & Tukker, Arnold & Rodrigues, João F.D., 2019. "The impact of regional convergence in energy-intensive industries on China's CO2 emissions and emission goals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 512-523.
    6. Feng, Zhiying & Tang, Wenhu & Niu, Zhewen & Wu, Qinghua, 2018. "Bi-level allocation of carbon emission permits based on clustering analysis and weighted voting: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 1122-1135.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    electric power industry; carbon emissions; scenario simulation; LEAP model;

    JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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