IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i12p4450-d842227.html

Optimizing Low-Carbon Pathway of China’s Power Supply Structure Using Model Predictive Control

Author

Listed:
  • Yue Ma

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Shandong University, 17923 Jingshi Road, Jinan 250061, China)

  • Xiaodong Chu

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Shandong University, 17923 Jingshi Road, Jinan 250061, China)

Abstract

With the increasing severity of climate change, the power industry, as one of the main sources of carbon emissions, is playing an extremely important role in the process of low-carbon energy transformation. The purpose of this paper is to try to find a general method to solve the optimal path for the low-carbon evolution of the power supply structure so as to meet the challenges faced by the low-carbon transformation of the power industry in the future. This paper first uses the capacity coefficient index (CCI) to represent the power generation ability of different technologies and proposes a forecasting method for the CCI of renewable energy generation. In this paper, a two-layer optimization model considering multiple constraints is established and solved using the MPC method. The results show that China’s installed capacity of renewable power could account for more than 50% in 2030, while the carbon emissions will decrease after reaching a peak in 2023. On the premise of ensuring sufficient reserve adjustment capacity of thermal power units, increasing the proportion of renewable energy generation is an important way to realize emission reduction in the power industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Yue Ma & Xiaodong Chu, 2022. "Optimizing Low-Carbon Pathway of China’s Power Supply Structure Using Model Predictive Control," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:12:p:4450-:d:842227
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/12/4450/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/12/4450/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam & Harijan, Khanji & Walasai, Gordhan Das & Mondal, Md Alam Hossain & Sahin, Hasret, 2018. "Long-term electricity demand forecast and supply side scenarios for Pakistan (2015–2050): A LEAP model application for policy analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 512-526.
    2. Bo Wang & Limao Wang & Shuai Zhong & Ning Xiang & Qiushi Qu, 2022. "Low-Carbon Transformation of Electric System against Power Shortage in China: Policy Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Najmus S. Sifat & Yousef Haseli, 2019. "A Critical Review of CO 2 Capture Technologies and Prospects for Clean Power Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-33, October.
    4. Quan Li & Xin Wang & Shuaiang Rong, 2018. "Probabilistic Load Flow Method Based on Modified Latin Hypercube-Important Sampling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-14, November.
    5. Lu, Shibao & Bai, Xiao & Li, Wei & Wang, Ning, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on water resources and grain production," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 76-84.
    6. van der Meer, D.W. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1484-1512.
    7. Yang, Mian & Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia & Yang, Fuxia, 2012. "Wind power generation in China: Understanding the mismatch between capacity and generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 145-151.
    8. Zhao, Zhen-Yu & Zuo, Jian & Fan, Lei-Lei & Zillante, George, 2011. "Impacts of renewable energy regulations on the structure of power generation in China – A critical analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 24-30.
    9. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    10. Brian J Preston, 2021. "The Influence of the Paris Agreement on Climate Litigation: Legal Obligations and Norms (Part I)," Journal of Environmental Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(1), pages 1-32.
    11. Miguel A. Altieri & Clara I. Nicholls, 2017. "The adaptation and mitigation potential of traditional agriculture in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(1), pages 33-45, January.
    12. Qunli Wu & Chenyang Peng, 2016. "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China’s Electric Power Industry Up to 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Daimeng & Xu, Jiahe & Ma, Ruifei & Zhang, Xuan & Wu, Qiuwei, 2025. "A pathway design framework for rational low-carbon policies based on model predictive control," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 396(C).
    2. Yu Hu & Yuanying Chi & Wenbing Zhou & Zhengzao Wang & Yongke Yuan & Ruoyang Li, 2022. "Research on Energy Structure Optimization and Carbon Emission Reduction Path in Beijing under the Dual Carbon Target," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jin, Xin & Zhang, Zhaolong & Shi, Xiaoqiang & Ju, Wenbin, 2014. "A review on wind power industry and corresponding insurance market in China: Current status and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1069-1082.
    2. Chandni Singh & James Ford & Debora Ley & Amir Bazaz & Aromar Revi, 2020. "Assessing the feasibility of adaptation options: methodological advancements and directions for climate adaptation research and practice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 255-277, September.
    3. Li, Mingquan & Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia & Zhang, Junfeng (Jim), 2019. "Policies to promote energy efficiency and air emissions reductions in China's electric power generation sector during the 11th and 12th five-year plan periods: Achievements, remaining challenges, and opportunities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 429-444.
    4. Yujing Liu & Ruoyun Du & Dongxiao Niu, 2022. "Forecast of Coal Demand in Shanxi Province Based on GA—LSSVM under Multiple Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-16, September.
    5. Huber, Matthias & Weissbart, Christoph, 2015. "On the optimal mix of wind and solar generation in the future Chinese power system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P1), pages 235-243.
    6. Sun, Lu & Fujii, Minoru & Li, Zhaoling & Dong, Huijuan & Geng, Yong & Liu, Zhe & Fujita, Tsuyoshi & Yu, Xiaoman & Zhang, Yuepeng, 2020. "Energy-saving and carbon emission reduction effect of urban-industrial symbiosis implementation with feasibility analysis in the city," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Zhang, Chonghui & Bai, Chen & Su, Weihua & Balezentis, Tomas, 2024. "The centralised data envelopment analysis model integrated with cost information and utility theory for power price setting under carbon peak strategy at the firm-level," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    8. Mindy Jewell Price & Alex Latta & Andrew Spring & Jennifer Temmer & Carla Johnston & Lloyd Chicot & Jessica Jumbo & Margaret Leishman, 2022. "Agroecology in the North: Centering Indigenous food sovereignty and land stewardship in agriculture “frontiers”," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(4), pages 1191-1206, December.
    9. Stua, Michele, 2013. "Evidence of the clean development mechanism impact on the Chinese electric power system's low-carbon transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1309-1319.
    10. Muhammad Amir Raza & Muhammad Mohsin Aman & Altaf Hussain Rajpar & Mohamed Bashir Ali Bashir & Touqeer Ahmed Jumani, 2022. "Towards Achieving 100% Renewable Energy Supply for Sustainable Climate Change in Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-23, December.
    11. Baccar, Mariem & Raynal, Hélène & Sekhar, Muddu & Bergez, Jacques-Eric & Willaume, Magali & Casel, Pierre & Giriraj, P. & Murthy, Sanjeeva & Ruiz, Laurent, 2023. "Dynamics of crop category choices reveal strategies and tactics used by smallholder farmers in India to cope with unreliable water availability," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    12. Bell, William Paul & Zheng, Xuemei, 2018. "Inclusive growth and climate change adaptation and mitigation in Australia and China : Removing barriers to solving wicked problems," MPRA Paper 84509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mao, Guozhu & Zou, Hongyang & Chen, Guanyi & Du, Huibin & Zuo, Jian, 2015. "Past, current and future of biomass energy research: A bibliometric analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1823-1833.
    14. Islam, Zeenatul & Sabiha, Noor E & Salim, Ruhul, 2022. "Integrated environment-smart agricultural practices: A strategy towards climate-resilient agriculture," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 59-72.
    15. David Klenert & Franziska Funke & Linus Mattauch & Brian O’Callaghan, 2020. "Five Lessons from COVID-19 for Advancing Climate Change Mitigation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 751-778, August.
    16. Reza Fachrizal & Joakim Munkhammar, 2020. "Improved Photovoltaic Self-Consumption in Residential Buildings with Distributed and Centralized Smart Charging of Electric Vehicles," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, March.
    17. Zhao, Zhen-yu & Tian, Yu-xi & Zillante, George, 2014. "Modeling and evaluation of the wind power industry chain: A China study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 397-406.
    18. Zeng, Ming & Li, Chen & Zhou, Lisha, 2013. "Progress and prospective on the police system of renewable energy in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 36-44.
    19. Max Ajl, 2021. "A People’s Green New Deal: Obstacles and Prospects," Agrarian South: Journal of Political Economy, Centre for Agrarian Research and Education for South, vol. 10(2), pages 371-390, August.
    20. Ming, Zeng & Song, Xue & Mingjuan, Ma & Xiaoli, Zhu, 2013. "New energy bases and sustainable development in China: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 169-185.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:12:p:4450-:d:842227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.