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Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity

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  • Lescaroux, François

Abstract

This paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand. For the main end-use sectors of consumption (industrial, commercial and public services, residential and road transportation), per-capita demand is expressed as an S-shaped function of per-capita income. Other variables intervene as well, like energy prices, temperatures and technological trends. This model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates (covering the whole world) and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral, final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s. Further, the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand, by sector and in total. The main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity. The simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell-shape, as reported in the literature. Depending on initial conditions, the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources, various forms might emerge.

Suggested Citation

  • Lescaroux, François, 2011. "Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 66-82, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:66-82
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    13. Mahumane, Gilberto & Mulder, Peter, 2015. "Mozambique Energy Outlook, 2015-2030. Data, scenarios and policy implications," MPRA Paper 65968, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Indranarain Ramlall, 2012. "Modelling Non-Renewable Energy in Mauritius: In Quest for Sustainable Policies towards a Greener Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 123-133.
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    16. Fan, Ying & Xia, Yan, 2012. "Exploring energy consumption and demand in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 23-30.
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    19. Bismark Ameyaw & Li Yao, 2018. "Sectoral Energy Demand Forecasting under an Assumption-Free Data-Driven Technique," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    20. Peer Lasse Hinrichsen & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard S. J. Tol, 2025. "Temperature Sensitivity of Residential Energy Demand on the Global Scale: A Bayesian Partial Pooling Model," Papers 2506.22768, arXiv.org.
    21. Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption," CAMA Working Papers 2024-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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