Dynamics of final sectoral energy demand and aggregate energy intensity
This paper proposes a regional and sectoral model of global final energy demand. For the main end-use sectors of consumption (industrial, commercial and public services, residential and road transportation), per-capita demand is expressed as an S-shaped function of per-capita income. Other variables intervene as well, like energy prices, temperatures and technological trends. This model is applied on a panel of 101 countries and 3 aggregates (covering the whole world) and it explains fairly well past variations in sectoral, final consumption since the beginning of the 2000s. Further, the model is used to analyze the dynamics of final energy demand, by sector and in total. The main conclusion concerns the pattern of change for aggregate energy intensity. The simulations performed show that there is no a priori reason for it to exhibit a bell-shape, as reported in the literature. Depending on initial conditions, the weight of basic needs in total consumption and the availability of modern commercial energy resources, various forms might emerge.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francois Lescaroux & Olivier Rech, 2008. "The Impact of Automobile Diffusion on the Income Elasticity of Motor Fuel Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 41-60.
- Xavier Labandeira & José M. Labeaga & Miguel Rodríguez, 2005.
"A Residential Energy Demand System for Spain,"
0501, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1999. "Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 101-138, February.
- Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1991.
"Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement,"
NBER Working Papers
3914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grossman, Gene & Krueger, Alan B, 1992. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," CEPR Discussion Papers 644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
- François Lescaroux, 2010. "Car Ownership in Relation to Income Distribution and Consumers' Spending Decisions," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 44(2), pages 207-230, May.
- Larsen, Bodil Merethe & Nesbakken, Runa, 2004. "Household electricity end-use consumption: results from econometric and engineering models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 179-200, March.
- Ruth A. Judson & Richard Schmalensee & Thomas M. Stoker, 1999. "Economic Development and the Structure of the Demand for Commercial Energy," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 29-57.
- Barro, Robert J, 2000. " Inequality and Growth in a Panel of Countries," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 5-32, March.
- Pierre Villa, 2000. "Evolution sur longue periode de l’intensite energetique," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 82, pages 167-200.
- Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1997. "Vehicle ownership to 2015: Implications for energy use and emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1121-1127, December.
- Adeyemi, Olutomi I. & Hunt, Lester C., 2007.
"Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: Asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change,"
Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 693-709, July.
- Olutomi I Adeyemi & Lester C Hunt, 2006. "Modelling OECD Industrial Energy Demand: Asymmetric Price Responses and Energy – Saving Technical Change," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 115, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
- Storchmann, Karl, 2005. "Long-Run Gasoline demand for passenger cars: the role of income distribution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 25-58, January.
- Rossana Galli, 1998. "The Relationship Between Energy Intensity and Income Levels: Forecasting Long Term Energy Demand in Asian Emerging Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 85-105.
- Agnolucci, Paolo, 2009. "The energy demand in the British and German industrial sectors: Heterogeneity and common factors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 175-187, January.
- Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
- Roger Fouquet & Peter J.G. Pearson, 2006. "Seven Centuries of Energy Services: The Price and Use of Light in the United Kingdom (1300-2000)," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 139-178.
- Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:1:p:66-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.