IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model – A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China


  • Hu, Guangxiao
  • Ma, Xiaoming
  • Ji, Junping


Cities consume more than 67% of global primary energy, the production of which results in approximately three-quarters of global CO2 emissions, exacerbating the global warming trend and related extreme weather events and natural disasters. Therefore, it is critical for cities to use existing and new sources of energy efficiently and effectively. This paper introduces a methodology that can combine sustainable energy planning with economic analysis, proposing a form of sustainable urban energy planning that could reduce energy consumption with the minimum economic cost. Taking a postindustrial city (Shenzhen, China) as an example, this paper defines four scenarios by which to analyze future projections of energy generation and consumption from 2015 to 2030 based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System model. Also developed are Sankey maps for the energy flow from the energy supply to demand sectors for different scenarios. The results show that energy efficiency improvement and energy structure upgrade policies implemented in Shenzhen would have a significant impact on its energy system. Energy consumption is projected to increase steadily up to 2030 under each scenario except for the Peak Scenario, but with different growth rates. Electricity generation in all scenarios is supposed to expand by 2030 and sustainable electricity (such as distributed photovoltaic power, waste-to-energy power, and Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power) will play an important role in the Energy structure upgrade and Peak scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Guangxiao & Ma, Xiaoming & Ji, Junping, 2019. "Scenarios and policies for sustainable urban energy development based on LEAP model – A case study of a postindustrial city: Shenzhen China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 876-886.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:238:y:2019:i:c:p:876-886
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.162

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kadian, Rashmi & Dahiya, R.P. & Garg, H.P., 2007. "Energy-related emissions and mitigation opportunities from the household sector in Delhi," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6195-6211, December.
    2. Brownsword, R.A. & Fleming, P.D. & Powell, J.C. & Pearsall, N., 2005. "Sustainable cities - modelling urban energy supply and demand," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 167-180, October.
    3. Lu, Shibao & Wang, Jianhua & Shang, Yizi & Bao, Haijun & Chen, Huixiong, 2017. "Potential assessment of optimizing energy structure in the city of carbon intensity target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 765-773.
    4. Sampaio, Henrique César & Dias, Rubens Alves & Balestieri, José Antônio Perrella, 2013. "Sustainable urban energy planning: The case study of a tropical city," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 924-935.
    5. Zhou, X. & Fan, L.W. & Zhou, P., 2015. "Marginal CO2 abatement costs: Findings from alternative shadow price estimates for Shanghai industrial sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 109-117.
    6. Tan, Sieting & Yang, Jin & Yan, Jinyue & Lee, Chewtin & Hashim, Haslenda & Chen, Bin, 2017. "A holistic low carbon city indicator framework for sustainable development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1919-1930.
    7. Lin, Jianyi & Cao, Bin & Cui, Shenghui & Wang, Wei & Bai, Xuemei, 2010. "Evaluating the effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: The case of Xiamen city, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 5123-5132, September.
    8. S. C. P. Yam & S. P. Yung & W. Zhou, 2014. "Game Call Options Revisited," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 173-206, January.
    9. Pardo Martínez, Clara Inés, 2015. "Energy and sustainable development in cities: A case study of Bogotá," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(P3), pages 612-621.
    10. Emodi, Nnaemeka Vincent & Emodi, Chinenye Comfort & Murthy, Girish Panchakshara & Emodi, Adaeze Saratu Augusta, 2017. "Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 247-261.
    11. Sveinbjörnsson, Dadi & Ben Amer-Allam, Sara & Hansen, Anders Bavnhøj & Algren, Loui & Pedersen, Allan Schrøder, 2017. "Energy supply modelling of a low-CO2 emitting energy system: Case study of a Danish municipality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 922-941.
    12. Purohit, Ishan & Purohit, Pallav & Shekhar, Shashaank, 2013. "Evaluating the potential of concentrating solar power generation in Northwestern India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 157-175.
    13. Du, Limin & Hanley, Aoife & Wei, Chu, 2015. "Estimating the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve of CO2 Emissions in China: Provincial Panel Data Analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 217-229.
    14. Anu Ramaswami & Abel Chavez & Marian Chertow, 2012. "Carbon Footprinting of Cities and Implications for Analysis of Urban Material and Energy Flows," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 16(6), pages 783-785, December.
    15. Kesicki, Fabian, 2013. "What are the key drivers of MAC curves? A partial-equilibrium modelling approach for the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 142-151.
    16. Cui, Lian-Biao & Fan, Ying & Zhu, Lei & Bi, Qing-Hua, 2014. "How will the emissions trading scheme save cost for achieving China’s 2020 carbon intensity reduction target?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 1043-1052.
    17. Phdungsilp, Aumnad, 2010. "Integrated energy and carbon modeling with a decision support system: Policy scenarios for low-carbon city development in Bangkok," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 4808-4817, September.
    18. Chen, Shaoqing & Chen, Bin, 2017. "Coupling of carbon and energy flows in cities: A meta-analysis and nexus modelling," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 774-783.
    19. Ahanchian, Mohammad & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel, 2014. "Energy demand, emissions forecasts and mitigation strategies modeled over a medium-range horizon: The case of the land transportation sector in Metro Manila," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 615-629.
    20. Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2003. "Implications of transportation policies on energy and environment in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 1493-1507, November.
    21. Dong, C. & Huang, G.H. & Cai, Y.P. & Liu, Y., 2012. "An inexact optimization modeling approach for supporting energy systems planning and air pollution mitigation in Beijing city," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 673-688.
    22. Comodi, G. & Cioccolanti, L. & Gargiulo, M., 2012. "Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with MarkAL-TIMES," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 303-315.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Ying & Liao, Cuiping & Zhang, Jingjing & Guo, Hongxu & Zhou, Nan & Zhao, Daiqing, 2019. "Exploring potential pathways towards urban greenhouse gas peaks: A case study of Guangzhou, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:238:y:2019:i:c:p:876-886. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.