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A multi-criteria, long-term energy planning optimisation model with integrated on-grid and off-grid electrification – The case of Uganda

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  • Trotter, Philipp A.
  • Cooper, Nathanial J.
  • Wilson, Peter R.

Abstract

While electricity access is lowest in developing countries, the academic literature on generation expansion planning (GEP) has been informed almost exclusively by challenges in industrialised countries. This paper presents the first multi-objective, long-term energy planning optimisation model tailored towards national power systems with little existing power infrastructure. It determines the location, type, capacity and timing of power system infrastructure additions. Specifically, three novel generalisations of standard generation planning are introduced: (1) an expansion of the demand constraints to allow for industrial and household electrification rates below 100%, (2) a minimisation of sub-national energy access inequality in conjunction with minimising system costs considering environmental constraints, and (3) an integration of distribution infrastructure, explicitly including both on-grid and off-grid electrification. Using a specifically designed solution algorithm based on the ε-constraint method, the model was successfully applied to the previously unexplored Ugandan national power system case. The results suggest that while it is cost-optimal to maintain highly unequal sub-national access patterns to meet Uganda’s official 80% electrification target in 2040, equal access rates across all districts can be achieved by increasing discounted system cost by only 3%. High optimal shares of locationally flexible on-grid and off-grid solar energy enable cheap sub-national shifts of generation capapcity. This paper strongly challenges the Ugandan government’s nuclear energy and largely grid-based electrification expansion plans. Instead, it calls for solar concentrated power as a baseload option in the future and a focus on off-grid electrification which the model selects for the majority of household connections in 2040, even in a high-demand scenario.

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  • Trotter, Philipp A. & Cooper, Nathanial J. & Wilson, Peter R., 2019. "A multi-criteria, long-term energy planning optimisation model with integrated on-grid and off-grid electrification – The case of Uganda," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 288-312.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:243:y:2019:i:c:p:288-312
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.178
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    2. Akbas, Beste & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Nock, Destenie & Trotter, Philipp A., 2022. "Rural electrification: An overview of optimization methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Taimur Al Shidhani & Anastasia Ioannou & Gioia Falcone, 2020. "Multi-Objective Optimisation for Power System Planning Integrating Sustainability Indicators," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-32, May.
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    6. Charles Van-Hein Sackey & Destenie Nock & Christine Cao & Daniel Armanios & Alex Davis, 2023. "Incorporating Elicited Preferences for Equality into Electricity System Planning Modeling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-21, November.
    7. Bandar Jubran Alqahtani & Dalia Patino-Echeverri, 2023. "Identifying Economic and Clean Strategies to Provide Electricity in Remote Rural Areas: Main-Grid Extension vs. Distributed Electricity Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Duthie, Mike & Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Mphasa, Carly & Bhat, Rashmi, 2023. "The elusive quest for sustainable off-grid electrification: New evidence from Indonesia," Ruhr Economic Papers 1049, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    9. Trotter, Philipp A. & Brophy, Aoife, 2022. "Policy mixes for business model innovation: The case of off-grid energy for sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(6).
    10. Costa, Alberto & Ng, Tsan Sheng & Su, Bin, 2023. "Long-term solar PV planning: An economic-driven robust optimization approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).
    11. Franziska Steinberger & Tobias Minder & Evelina Trutnevyte, 2020. "Efficiency versus Equity in Spatial Siting of Electricity Generation: Citizen Preferences in a Serious Board Game in Switzerland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-17, September.
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    15. Nock, Destenie & Levin, Todd & Baker, Erin, 2020. "Changing the policy paradigm: A benefit maximization approach to electricity planning in developing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
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    18. Zhu, Mengshu & Fang, Jiakun & Ai, Xiaomeng & Cui, Shichang & Feng, Yuang & Li, Peng & Zhang, Yihan & Zheng, Yongle & Chen, Zhe & Wen, Jinyu, 2023. "A comprehensive methodology for optimal planning of remote integrated energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    19. Brumana, Giovanni & Franchini, Giuseppe & Ghirardi, Elisa & Perdichizzi, Antonio, 2022. "Techno-economic optimization of hybrid power generation systems: A renewables community case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    20. Stritzke, Susann & Trotter, Philipp A. & Twesigye, Peter, 2021. "Towards responsive energy governance: Lessons from a holistic analysis of energy access in Uganda and Zambia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    21. Constantino Dário Justo & José Eduardo Tafula & Pedro Moura, 2022. "Planning Sustainable Energy Systems in the Southern African Development Community: A Review of Power Systems Planning Approaches," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-28, October.
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    23. Karbassi, Veis & Trotter, Philipp A. & Walther, Grit, 2023. "Diversifying the African energy system: Economic versus equitable allocation of renewable electricity and e-fuel production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).

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