IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v67y2014icp27-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China's power sector planning

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan, Jiahai
  • Xu, Yan
  • Kang, Junjie
  • Zhang, Xingping
  • Hu, Zheng

Abstract

In this paper we expand the IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) model by including the external cost of TPPs (traditional power plants) and popularization cost of EPPs (efficiency power plants) with nonlinear functions. Case studies for power planning in China during 2011–2021 are conducted to show the efficacy of the model. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning under different policies. Results show that: 1) wind power will become competitive with technical learning, but its installation is undesirable when the external cost of coal power is not internalized; 2) the existence of popularization cost will hinder EPPs' (efficiency power plants) deployment and pure market mechanism is not enough to deliver EPPs at socially desirable scale; 3) imposition of progressive emission tax on coal power at an average of 0.15–0.20 RMB/KWh can remedy the market distortion and promote the development of wind power by a significant margin; 4) nuclear power will grow stably when its external cost is set no more than 0.187 RMB per KWh, or 87% of its internal cost. The proposed model can serve as a useful tool for decision support in the process of power planning and policy formulation for national government.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Kang, Junjie & Zhang, Xingping & Hu, Zheng, 2014. "Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China's power sector planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 27-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:27-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544213011249
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2013.12.054?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhen & Yu, Zhongfu & Liu, Jiangyan & Hu, Zhaoguang & Xu, Ming, 2012. "Managing electric power system transition in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5660-5677.
    2. Lujano-Rojas, Juan M. & Dufo-López, Rodolfo & Bernal-Agustín, José L., 2013. "Probabilistic modelling and analysis of stand-alone hybrid power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 19-27.
    3. Ibenholt, Karin, 2002. "Explaining learning curves for wind power," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(13), pages 1181-1189, October.
    4. Zhang, Y.M. & Huang, G.H. & Lin, Q.G. & Lu, H.W., 2012. "Integer fuzzy credibility constrained programming for power system management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 398-405.
    5. Julien Chevallier, 2012. "Econometric Analysis of Carbon Markets," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-94-007-2412-9, November.
    6. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Zhang, Xingping & Hu, Zheng & Xu, Ming, 2014. "China's 2020 clean energy target: Consistency, pathways and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 692-700.
    7. Malik, Arif S., 2007. "Impact on power planning due to demand-side management (DSM) in commercial and government sectors with rebound effect—A case study of central grid of Oman," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2157-2166.
    8. Mahapatra, Diptiranjan & Shukla, Priyadarshi & Dhar, Subash, 2012. "External cost of coal based electricity generation: A tale of Ahmedabad city," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 253-265.
    9. Ma, Linwei & Liu, Pei & Fu, Feng & Li, Zheng & Ni, Weidou, 2011. "Integrated energy strategy for the sustainable development of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 1143-1154.
    10. McNerney, James & Doyne Farmer, J. & Trancik, Jessika E., 2011. "Historical costs of coal-fired electricity and implications for the future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3042-3054, June.
    11. Hu, Zhaoguang & Tan, Xiandong & Yang, Fan & Yang, Ming & Wen, Quan & Shan, Baoguo & Han, Xinyang, 2010. "Integrated resource strategic planning: Case study of energy efficiency in the Chinese power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6391-6397, November.
    12. Sundqvist, Thomas, 2004. "What causes the disparity of electricity externality estimates?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(15), pages 1753-1766, October.
    13. Klemperer, Paul D, 1987. "Entry Deterrence in Markets with Consumer Switching Costs," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 99-117, Supplemen.
    14. Pohekar, S. D. & Ramachandran, M., 2004. "Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning--A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 365-381, August.
    15. Hu, Zhaoguang & Wen, Quan & Wang, Jianhui & Tan, Xiandong & Nezhad, Hameed & Shan, Baoguo & Han, Xinyang, 2010. "Integrated resource strategic planning in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4635-4642, August.
    16. Li, Y.F. & Huang, G.H. & Li, Y.P. & Xu, Y. & Chen, W.T., 2010. "Regional-scale electric power system planning under uncertainty--A multistage interval-stochastic integer linear programming approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 475-490, January.
    17. Zhang, Na & Lior, Noam & Jin, Hongguang, 2011. "The energy situation and its sustainable development strategy in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 3639-3649.
    18. Giaouris, Damian & Papadopoulos, Athanasios I. & Ziogou, Chrysovalantou & Ipsakis, Dimitris & Voutetakis, Spyros & Papadopoulou, Simira & Seferlis, Panos & Stergiopoulos, Fotis & Elmasides, Costas, 2013. "Performance investigation of a hybrid renewable power generation and storage system using systemic power management models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 621-635.
    19. Didden, Marcel H. & D'haeseleer, William D., 2003. "Demand Side Management in a competitive European market: Who should be responsible for its implementation?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(13), pages 1307-1314, October.
    20. Antunes, C.Henggeler & Martins, A.Gomes & Brito, Isabel Sofia, 2004. "A multiple objective mixed integer linear programming model for power generation expansion planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 613-627.
    21. Zhang, Dongjie & Ma, Linwei & Liu, Pei & Zhang, Lili & Li, Zheng, 2012. "A multi-period superstructure optimisation model for the optimal planning of China's power sector considering carbon dioxide mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 173-183.
    22. Gitizadeh, Mohsen & Kaji, Mahdi & Aghaei, Jamshid, 2013. "Risk based multiobjective generation expansion planning considering renewable energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 74-82.
    23. Zangeneh, Ali & Jadid, Shahram & Rahimi-Kian, Ashkan, 2011. "A fuzzy environmental-technical-economic model for distributed generation planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 3437-3445.
    24. Luo, Xianglong & Zhang, Bingjian & Chen, Ying & Mo, Songping, 2012. "Operational planning optimization of multiple interconnected steam power plants considering environmental costs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 549-561.
    25. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2012. "Delivering power system transition in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 751-772.
    26. Wang, Jianhui & Bloyd, Cary N. & Hu, Zhaoguang & Tan, Zhongfu, 2010. "Demand response in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1592-1597.
    27. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2010. "Optimization of China's generating portfolio and policy implications based on portfolio theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1391-1402.
    28. Yari, Mortaza & Mehr, A.S. & Mahmoudi, S.M.S., 2013. "Thermodynamic analysis and optimization of a novel dual-evaporator system powered by electrical and solar energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 646-656.
    29. Bogdan, Željko & Cehil, Mislav & Kopjar, Damir, 2007. "Power system optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 955-960.
    30. Zhu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H., 2012. "Planning municipal-scale energy systems under functional interval uncertainties," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 71-84.
    31. Yu, Yongzhen, 2012. "How to fit demand side management (DSM) into current Chinese electricity system reform?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 549-557.
    32. Paul Klemperer, 1987. "Markets with Consumer Switching Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(2), pages 375-394.
    33. van der Zwaan, Bob & Rabl, Ari, 2004. "The learning potential of photovoltaics: implications for energy policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(13), pages 1545-1554, September.
    34. van Ruijven, Bas & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Oil and natural gas prices and greenhouse gas emission mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4797-4808, November.
    35. Junginger, M. & Faaij, A. & Turkenburg, W. C., 2005. "Global experience curves for wind farms," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 133-150, January.
    36. Kim, Seunghyok & Koo, Jamin & Lee, Chang Jun & Yoon, En Sup, 2012. "Optimization of Korean energy planning for sustainability considering uncertainties in learning rates and external factors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 126-134.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kosugi, Takanobu, 2016. "Endogenizing the probability of nuclear exit in an optimal power-generation mix model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 102-114.
    2. Li, Ying & Lukszo, Zofia & Weijnen, Margot, 2016. "The impact of inter-regional transmission grid expansion on China’s power sector decarbonization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 853-873.
    3. Wang, Hongxia & Zhang, Junfeng & Fang, Hong, 2017. "Electricity footprint of China’s industrial sectors and its socioeconomic drivers," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 98-106.
    4. Zhang, Ning & Hu, Zhaoguang & Shen, Bo & He, Gang & Zheng, Yanan, 2017. "An integrated source-grid-load planning model at the macro level: Case study for China's power sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 231-246.
    5. Guerra, Omar J. & Tejada, Diego A. & Reklaitis, Gintaras V., 2016. "An optimization framework for the integrated planning of generation and transmission expansion in interconnected power systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 1-21.
    6. Trotter, Philipp A. & Cooper, Nathanial J. & Wilson, Peter R., 2019. "A multi-criteria, long-term energy planning optimisation model with integrated on-grid and off-grid electrification – The case of Uganda," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 288-312.
    7. Carlos Roberto de Sousa Costa & Paula Ferreira, 2023. "A Review on the Internalization of Externalities in Electricity Generation Expansion Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Carvallo, Juan Pablo & Sanstad, Alan H. & Larsen, Peter H., 2019. "Exploring the relationship between planning and procurement in western U.S. electric utilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 4-15.
    9. Li, Ying & Lukszo, Zofia & Weijnen, Margot, 2015. "The implications of CO2 price for China’s power sector decarbonization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 53-64.
    10. He Huang & DaPeng Liang & Liang Liang & Zhen Tong, 2019. "Research on China’s Power Sustainable Transition Under Progressively Levelized Power Generation Cost Based on a Dynamic Integrated Generation–Transmission Planning Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Xu, Jin-Hua & Yi, Bo-Wen & Fan, Ying, 2020. "Economic viability and regulation effects of infrastructure investments for inter-regional electricity transmission and trade in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Yuan, Jiahai & Lei, Qi & Xiong, Minpeng & Guo, Jingsheng & Hu, Zheng, 2016. "The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 495-504.
    13. Luis Hernández-Callejo, 2019. "A Comprehensive Review of Operation and Control, Maintenance and Lifespan Management, Grid Planning and Design, and Metering in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-50, April.
    14. Zheng, Yanan & Hu, Zhaoguang & Wang, Jianhui & Wen, Quan, 2014. "IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) with interconnected smart grids in integrating renewable energy and implementing DSM (demand side management) in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 863-874.
    15. Ning Zhang & Hongcai Dai & Yaohua Wang & Yunzhou Zhang & Yuqing Yang, 2021. "Power system transition in China under the coordinated development of power sources, network, demand response, and energy storage," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), March.
    16. Baldini, Mattia & Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik, 2016. "Optimal trade-offs between energy efficiency improvements and additional renewable energy supply: A review of international experiences," MPRA Paper 102031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Chen, Huadong & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Jianhui, 2018. "Simulating the impact of investment preference on low-carbon transition in power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 440-455.
    18. Yi, Bo-Wen & Xu, Jin-Hua & Fan, Ying, 2016. "Inter-regional power grid planning up to 2030 in China considering renewable energy development and regional pollutant control: A multi-region bottom-up optimization model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 641-658.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhaoguang, 2012. "Delivering power system transition in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 751-772.
    2. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Hu, Zhen & Yu, Zhongfu & Liu, Jiangyan & Hu, Zhaoguang & Xu, Ming, 2012. "Managing electric power system transition in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 5660-5677.
    3. Li, Ying & Lukszo, Zofia & Weijnen, Margot, 2015. "The implications of CO2 price for China’s power sector decarbonization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 53-64.
    4. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    5. Zheng, Yanan & Hu, Zhaoguang & Wang, Jianhui & Wen, Quan, 2014. "IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) with interconnected smart grids in integrating renewable energy and implementing DSM (demand side management) in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 863-874.
    6. Rubin, Edward S. & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Yeh, Sonia, 2015. "A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 198-218.
    7. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Liu, Pei & Georgiadis, Michael C., 2015. "An integrated stochastic multi-regional long-term energy planning model incorporating autonomous power systems and demand response," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 865-888.
    8. Xiaoyang Sun & Baosheng Zhang & Xu Tang & Benjamin C. McLellan & Mikael Höök, 2016. "Sustainable Energy Transitions in China: Renewable Options and Impacts on the Electricity System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, November.
    9. Yan Xu & Jiahai Yuan & Huiming Xu, 2017. "Dynamic Integrated Resource Strategic Planning Model: A Case Study of China’s Power Sector Planning into 2050," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-21, July.
    10. Samadi, Sascha, 2018. "The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2346-2364.
    11. Bhowmik, Chiranjib & Bhowmik, Sumit & Ray, Amitava & Pandey, Krishna Murari, 2017. "Optimal green energy planning for sustainable development: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 796-813.
    12. Hong, Sungjun & Chung, Yanghon & Woo, Chungwon, 2015. "Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 80-89.
    13. Ming, Zeng & Song, Xue & Mingjuan, Ma & Lingyun, Li & Min, Cheng & Yuejin, Wang, 2013. "Historical review of demand side management in China: Management content, operation mode, results assessment and relative incentives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 470-482.
    14. Dongmin Son & Joonrak Kim & Bongju Jeong, 2019. "Optimal Operational Strategy for Power Producers in Korea Considering Renewable Portfolio Standards and Emissions Trading Schemes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-24, May.
    15. Zhou, Kaile & Yang, Shanlin, 2015. "Demand side management in China: The context of China’s power industry reform," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 954-965.
    16. Matteson, Schuyler & Williams, Eric, 2015. "Residual learning rates in lead-acid batteries: Effects on emerging technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 71-79.
    17. Sascha Samadi, 2016. "A Review of Factors Influencing the Cost Development of Electricity Generation Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-25, November.
    18. Oree, Vishwamitra & Sayed Hassen, Sayed Z. & Fleming, Peter J., 2017. "Generation expansion planning optimisation with renewable energy integration: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 790-803.
    19. Sadeghi, Hadi & Rashidinejad, Masoud & Abdollahi, Amir, 2017. "A comprehensive sequential review study through the generation expansion planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1369-1394.
    20. Wu, X.D. & Yang, Q. & Chen, G.Q. & Hayat, T. & Alsaedi, A., 2016. "Progress and prospect of CCS in China: Using learning curve to assess the cost-viability of a 2×600MW retrofitted oxyfuel power plant as a case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1274-1285.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:67:y:2014:i:c:p:27-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.