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The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?

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  • Yuan, Jiahai
  • Lei, Qi
  • Xiong, Minpeng
  • Guo, Jingsheng
  • Hu, Zheng

Abstract

Coal power holds the king position in China's generation mix and has resulted in ever-increasing ecological and environmental issues; hence, the development of the electric power sector is confronted with a series of new challenges. China has recently adopted a new economic principle of the “new economic normal,” which has a large effect on the projection electricity demand and power generation planning through 2020. This paper measures electricity demand based upon China's social and economic structure. The 2020 roadmap presents China's developing targets for allocating energy resources to meet new demands, and the 2030 roadmap is compiled based upon an ambitious expansion of clean energy sources. Results show that electricity demand is expected to reach 7500TWh in 2020 and 9730TWh in 2030. Coal power is expected to reach its peak in 2020 at around 970GW, and will then enter a plateau, even with a pathway of active electricity substitution in place.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Jiahai & Lei, Qi & Xiong, Minpeng & Guo, Jingsheng & Hu, Zheng, 2016. "The prospective of coal power in China: Will it reach a plateau in the coming decade?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 495-504.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:98:y:2016:i:c:p:495-504
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.09.025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Haonan Zhang & Xingping Zhang & Jiahai Yuan, 2020. "Coal power in China: A multi‐level perspective review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(6), November.
    8. Qingbin Yu & Yuliang Dong & Yanjun Du & Jiahai Yuan & Fang Fang, 2022. "Optimizing Operation Strategy in a Simulated High-Proportion Wind Power Wind–Coal Combined Base Load Power Generation System under Multiple Scenes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-21, October.
    9. Jiahai Yuan & Yurong Zeng & Xiaoxuan Guo & Yu Ai & Minpeng Xiong, 2018. "Electric Power Investment Risk Assessment for Belt and Road Initiative Nations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, August.
    10. Yuan, Jiahai & Li, Xinying & Xu, Chuanbo & Zhao, Changhong & Liu, Yuanxin, 2019. "Investment risk assessment of coal-fired power plants in countries along the Belt and Road initiative based on ANP-Entropy-TODIM method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 623-640.
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    12. Minpeng Xiong & Xiaowen Yang & Sisi Chen & Fulian Shi & Jiahai Yuan, 2019. "Environmental Stress Testing for China’s Overseas Coal Power Investment Project," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-27, October.
    13. Delu Wang & Xun Xue & Yadong Wang, 2021. "Overcapacity Risk of China’s Coal Power Industry: A Comprehensive Assessment and Driving Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-21, January.
    14. Li, Haoran & Cui, Xueqin & Hui, Jingxuan & He, Gang & Weng, Yuwei & Nie, Yaoyu & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2021. "Catchment-level water stress risk of coal power transition in China under 2℃/1.5℃ targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    15. Zhang, Boling & Wang, Qian & Wang, Sixia & Tong, Ruipeng, 2023. "Coal power demand and paths to peak carbon emissions in China: A provincial scenario analysis oriented by CO2-related health co-benefits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
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    18. Wang, Yongpei & Yan, Weilong & Komonpipat, Supak, 2019. "How does the capacity utilization of thermal power generation affect pollutant emissions? Evidence from the panel data of China's provinces," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 440-451.

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