IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Endogenizing the probability of nuclear exit in an optimal power-generation mix model


  • Kosugi, Takanobu


A major accident at a nuclear power reactor can lower public acceptance of this energy source and may result in a nuclear exit. This paper proposes an optimal power-generation planning model that deals explicitly with the costs involved in changing the power-generation mix due to a nuclear exit. The model introduces the probability of a major accident leading to a nuclear exit at a future time period as an endogenous variable, which is determined depending on the amount of nuclear power being generated during the preceding period. The proposed model is formulated as a stochastic programming problem that aims to minimize the expected value of overall power-generation costs computed with a weighted probability of every future state, branched according to a possible nuclear exit at each time period. An application of the model quantitatively implies that less nuclear dependency is optimal for a higher assumed frequency of a major accident per generated unit of electrical energy from nuclear—not only for the cost of direct damage from the accident, but largely because of the increased cost of overall power generation due to the subsequent nuclear exit. To put it differently, lowering the frequency of a major nuclear accident per reactor·year brings benefits exceeding the conventionally perceived effect of reducing an accident's direct damage. Lowering the major accident frequency to one per 106 reactor·years would free the optimal planning of future electricity supply from influence of an accident causing nuclear exit, if the geographical scale of the exit were limited to one-twentieth of the entire world.

Suggested Citation

  • Kosugi, Takanobu, 2016. "Endogenizing the probability of nuclear exit in an optimal power-generation mix model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 102-114.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:100:y:2016:i:c:p:102-114
    DOI: 10.1016/

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. de-Llano Paz, Fernando & Antelo, Susana Iglesias & Calvo Silvosa, Anxo & Soares, Isabel, 2014. "The technological and environmental efficiency of the EU-27 power mix: An evaluation based on MPT," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 67-81.
    2. Yuan, Jiahai & Xu, Yan & Kang, Junjie & Zhang, Xingping & Hu, Zheng, 2014. "Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China's power sector planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 27-40.
    3. Seddighi, Amir Hossein & Ahmadi-Javid, Amir, 2015. "Integrated multiperiod power generation and transmission expansion planning with sustainability aspects in a stochastic environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 9-18.
    4. Rabl, Ari & Rabl, Veronika A., 2013. "External costs of nuclear: Greater or less than the alternatives?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 575-584.
    5. Siegrist, Michael & Sütterlin, Bernadette & Keller, Carmen, 2014. "Why have some people changed their attitudes toward nuclear power after the accident in Fukushima?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 356-363.
    6. Vicki Duscha & Katja Schumacher & Joachim Schleich & Pierre Buisson, 2014. "Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 327-352, May.
    7. Enrica Cian & Samuel Carrara & Massimo Tavoni, 2014. "Innovation benefits from nuclear phase-out: can they compensate the costs?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(3), pages 637-650, April.
    8. Kannan, Ramachandran & Turton, Hal, 2012. "Cost of ad-hoc nuclear policy uncertainties in the evolution of the Swiss electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 391-406.
    9. Kosugi, Takanobu & Tokimatsu, Koji & Kurosawa, Atsushi & Itsubo, Norihiro & Yagita, Hiroshi & Sakagami, Masaji, 2009. "Internalization of the external costs of global environmental damage in an integrated assessment model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2664-2678, July.
    10. Paul L. Joskow & John E. Parsons, 2012. "The Future of Nuclear Power After Fukushima," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    11. Ma, Tao & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Lund, Henrik & Yang, Hongxing & Lu, Lin, 2014. "An energy system model for Hong Kong in 2020," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 301-310.
    12. Takanobu Kosugi, 2013. "Fail-safe solar radiation management geoengineering," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(8), pages 1141-1166, December.
    13. Zhang, Qi & Mclellan, Benjamin C. & Tezuka, Tetsuo & Ishihara, Keiichi N., 2012. "Economic and environmental analysis of power generation expansion in Japan considering Fukushima nuclear accident using a multi-objective optimization model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 986-995.
    14. Zheng, Yanan & Hu, Zhaoguang & Wang, Jianhui & Wen, Quan, 2014. "IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) with interconnected smart grids in integrating renewable energy and implementing DSM (demand side management) in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 863-874.
    15. Tokimatsu, Koji & Kosugi, Takanobu & Asami, Takayoshi & Williams, Eric & Kaya, Yoichi, 2006. "Evaluation of lifecycle CO2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century under various nuclear scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 833-852, May.
    16. Sheldon, Seth & Hadian, Saeed & Zik, Ory, 2015. "Beyond carbon: Quantifying environmental externalities as energy for hydroelectric and nuclear power," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 36-44.
    17. Bruninx, Kenneth & Madzharov, Darin & Delarue, Erik & D'haeseleer, William, 2013. "Impact of the German nuclear phase-out on Europe's electricity generation—A comprehensive study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 251-261.
    18. repec:eee:reensy:v:123:y:2014:i:c:p:110-122 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Rafaj, Peter & Kypreos, Socrates, 2007. "Internalisation of external cost in the power generation sector: Analysis with Global Multi-regional MARKAL model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 828-843, February.
    20. Hayashi, Masatsugu & Hughes, Larry, 2013. "The Fukushima nuclear accident and its effect on global energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 102-111.
    21. Hughes, Larry, 2015. "The effects of event occurrence and duration on resilience and adaptation in energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 443-454.
    22. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Kryman, Matthew & Laine, Emily, 2015. "Profiling technological failure and disaster in the energy sector: A comparative analysis of historical energy accidents," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 2016-2027.
    23. Nakata, T, 2002. "Analysis of the impacts of nuclear phase-out on energy systems in Japan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 363-377.
    24. Hong, Sanghyun & Bradshaw, Corey J.A. & Brook, Barry W., 2013. "Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 237-244.
    25. Csereklyei, Z., 2014. "Measuring the Impact of Nuclear Accidents on Energy Policy," 2014 Conference (58th), February 4-7, 2014, Port Maquarie, Australia 165825, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:energy:v:126:y:2017:i:c:p:231-246 is not listed on IDEAS


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:100:y:2016:i:c:p:102-114. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.