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Germanys Nuclear Phase Out - A Survey of the Impact since 2011 and Outlook to 2023

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  • Friedrich Kunz and Hannes Weigt

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the effects of the German nuclear phase out, focusing on the seven nuclear power plants affected by the March 2011 moratorium, and continuing through the final phase out of the last plant in 2022. We provide an ex-post assessment of model analyses on the impact of the nuclear moratorium presented by the modelling community, in 2011 or shortly after. These are then compared with the real-world developments over 2011-2013. Amongst others, modelers were right to forecast a modest effect on electricity prices, a reduction of the net export surplus, and a slight increase of fossil and renewable electricity generation. Overall, the impacts were modest, and the phase out has proceeded gently, without any major disturbance. We also provide recent modelling results on the final phase out of all German nuclear power plants by 2023. Given the expected conventional expansions and a continuous rise in renewable electricity generation, we expect the nuclear phase out to proceed smoothly, and no capacity shortages to occur.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Kunz and Hannes Weigt, 2014. "Germanys Nuclear Phase Out - A Survey of the Impact since 2011 and Outlook to 2023," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:eeepjl:eeep3_2_02kunz
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thure Traber & Claudia Kemfert, 2012. "German Nuclear Phase-out Policy: Effects on European Electricity Wholesale Prices, Emission Prices, Conventional Power Plant Investments and Eletricity Trade," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1219, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Michaela Fursch & Dietmar Lindenberger & Raimund Malischek & Stephan Nagl & Timo Panke & Johannes Truby, 2012. "German Nuclear Policy Reconsidered: Implications for the Electricity Market," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    3. Bruninx, Kenneth & Madzharov, Darin & Delarue, Erik & D'haeseleer, William, 2013. "Impact of the German nuclear phase-out on Europe's electricity generation—A comprehensive study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 251-261.
    4. Paul L. Joskow & John E. Parsons, 2012. "The Future of Nuclear Power After Fukushima," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    5. Nestle, Uwe, 2012. "Does the use of nuclear power lead to lower electricity prices? An analysis of the debate in Germany with an international perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 152-160.
    6. Friedrich Kunz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Dominik Möst & Hannes Weigt, 2011. "Security of Supply and Electricity Network Flows after a Phase-Out of Germany’s Nuclear Plants: Any Trouble Ahead?," RSCAS Working Papers 2011/32, European University Institute.
    7. Florian Leuthold & Hannes Weigt & Christian Hirschhausen, 2012. "A Large-Scale Spatial Optimization Model of the European Electricity Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 75-107, March.
    8. Jonas Egerer and Wolf-Peter Schill, 2014. "Power System Transformation toward Renewables: Investment Scenarios for Germany," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    9. Friedrich Kunz, 2013. "Improving Congestion Management: How to Facilitate the Integration of Renewable Generation in Germany," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
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    Cited by:

    1. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2017. "Buffering volatility: A study on the limits of Germany's energy revolution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 130-150.
    2. Philip Beran & Christian Pape & Christoph Weber, 2018. "Modelling German electricity wholesale spot prices with a parsimonious fundamental model – Validation and application," EWL Working Papers 1801, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    3. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:450-465 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mulder, Machiel & Scholtens, Bert, 2016. "A plant-level analysis of the spill-over effects of the German Energiewende," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1259-1271.
    5. repec:rsr:supplm:v:65:y:2017:i:8:p:19-34 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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