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Mittelfristige Strombedarfsdeckung durch Kraftwerke und Netze nicht gefährdet

Author

Listed:
  • Friedrich Kunz
  • Clemens Gerbaulet
  • Christian von Hirschhausen

Abstract

In spite of the March 2011 nuclear moratorium, the German electricity system's ability to provide a secure supply has not been jeopardized to date, and there is no prospect of this occurring in the coming decade, either. The system currently has major overcapacities due to construction of conventional power plants as well as renewables, resulting in low wholesale power prices and high export surpluses. The excess reserves are currently estimated at five to ten gigawatts. Introduced following the nuclear moratorium of March 2011, the "grid reserve" has helped prevent bottlenecks in grid capacity. The June 2013 Ordinance on Reserve Power Plants (Reservekraftwerksverordnung, ResKV) has made appropriate provisions for the coming years. Various analyses of the medium-term capacity situation in Germany suggest that the expected capacity surplus or shortfall will be small. Regional grid bottlenecks are manageable, especially in southern Germany: model calculations show that even according to pessimistic assumptions regarding grid and power plant expansion, the system can secure supply. Thus, the entire capacity situation across Germany seems manageable; for this reason, a systemic change toward capacity markets does not appear necessary at present. Trotz des Atommoratoriums aus dem März 2011 ist die Versorgungssicherheit des deutschen Stromsystems bisher nicht gefährdet gewesen und auch für das kommende Jahrzehnt ist keine Gefährdung abzusehen. Derzeit hat das System aufgrund des Zubaus konventioneller Kraftwerke sowie der erneuerbaren Energieträger hohe Überkapazitäten, welche zu niedrigen Großhandelsstrompreisen und hohen Exportüberschüssen führen. Derzeit werden die Überkapazitäten auf fünf bis zehn Gigawatt geschätzt. Die nach dem Atommoratorium im März 2011 eingeführte Netzreserve hat dazu beigetragen, dass auch netzseitig aufgetretene Engpässe beherrschbar waren. Mit der Reservekraftwerksverordnung (ResKV) vom Juni 2013 ist auch für die nächsten Jahre vorgesorgt. Unterschiedliche Analysen der mittelfristigen Kapazitätssituation in Deutschland legen nah, dass das zu erwartende Leistungsdefizit beziehungsweise -überschuss gering sein wird. Auch regionale Netzengpässe sind beherrschbar, insbesondere in Süddeutschland: Modellrechnungen zeigen, dass selbst bei pessimistischen Annahmen bezüglich Netz- und Kraftwerksausbau das System sicher zu betreiben ist. Deutschlandweit stellt sich die gesamte Kapazitätssituation somit als beherrschbar dar; daher erscheint ein Systemwechsel in Richtung Kapazitätsmärkte als derzeit nicht notwendig.

Suggested Citation

  • Friedrich Kunz & Clemens Gerbaulet & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2013. "Mittelfristige Strombedarfsdeckung durch Kraftwerke und Netze nicht gefährdet," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(48), pages 25-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:80-48-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pao-Yu Oei & Felix Reitz & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2014. "Risks of Vattenfall's German Lignite Mining and Power Operations: Technical, Economic, and Legal Considerations; Policy Report on Behalf of Greenpeace Germany," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 87, number pbk87.
    2. Egerer, Jonas & Weibezahn, Jens & Hermann, Hauke, 2016. "Two price zones for the German electricity market — Market implications and distributional effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 365-381.
    3. Claudia Kemfert & Clemens Gerbaulet & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2016. "Stromnetze und Speichertechnologien für die Energiewende - eine Analyse mit Bezug zur Diskussion des EEG 2016: Gutachten im Auftrag der Hermann-Scheer-Stiftung," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, edition 0, volume 112, number pbk112.
    4. Jonas Egerer & Jens Weibezahn & Hauke Hermann, 2015. "Two Price Zones for the German Electricity Market: Market Implications and Distributional Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1451, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capacity mechanism; strategic reserve; Germany; renewable energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation

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