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Has the Fukushima accident influenced short-term consumption in the evolution of nuclear energy? An analysis of the world and seven leading countries

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  • Furlan, Claudia
  • Guidolin, Mariangela
  • Guseo, Renato

Abstract

In 2013 registered nuclear power consumption in several countries, including France, Germany, and other OECD members, declined. In this paper, we focus on nuclear consumption leaders and explore, through diffusion models, whether and to what extent Fukushima accident had a short-term effect on these countries' consumption dynamics. Safety checks, performed after the accident caused temporary shutdowns in production but not all of them were significant enough to modify nuclear energy evolution. Then, we compared the evolutionary behavior estimated through the entire time series and that obtained by excluding the last three observations (2011–2013): what would the forecasts have been before Fukushima? Significant short-term effects were identified in 2011–2013 at the global level, for France, and South Korea, while they have not been identified for the US, Germany, and Russia. About the medium-term evolution predicted by the models, we identified countries with declining consumption (the US, France, Germany and South Korea) and with increasing consumption (China, Russia, and Canada). At the global level a declining trend is predicted.

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  • Furlan, Claudia & Guidolin, Mariangela & Guseo, Renato, 2016. "Has the Fukushima accident influenced short-term consumption in the evolution of nuclear energy? An analysis of the world and seven leading countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 37-49.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:107:y:2016:i:c:p:37-49
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.04.004
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    5. Ding, Song & Tao, Zui & Zhang, Huahan & Li, Yao, 2022. "Forecasting nuclear energy consumption in China and America: An optimized structure-adaptative grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PA).
    6. Francesca Bitonti & Angelo Mazza & Salvatore Strozza, 2021. "Could the bass model be applied to Italian emigration?," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 75(3), pages 5-16, July-Sept.
    7. Nam, Hoseok & Konishi, Satoshi & Nam, Ki-Woo, 2021. "Comparative analysis of decision making regarding nuclear policy after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident: Case study in Germany and Japan," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    8. Ding, Song & Li, Ruojin & Wu, Shu & Zhou, Weijie, 2021. "Application of a novel structure-adaptative grey model with adjustable time power item for nuclear energy consumption forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).

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