IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/rensus/v47y2015icp654-664.html

Some searches may not work properly. We apologize for the inconvenience.

   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonlinear production path and an alternative reserves estimate for South Asian natural gas

Author

Listed:
  • Darda, Md Abud
  • Guseo, Renato
  • Mortarino, Cinzia

Abstract

Natural gas is a finite resource that may be estimated directly, through geophysical methodologies, or indirectly, through historical production data. The rapid growth in consumption of this limited natural resource, strictly connected to the oil economy, may lead to its imminent depletion and a related economic crisis. The transition to a new economy, based on renewable and sustainable energy resources, is a crucial challenge for the next decades at world and regional levels, with different dynamics. Therefore, an accurate forecast of the availability of natural gas is important to ensure a sustainable energy policy, providing essential information about the timing of this transition. Postulating a finite life cycle of recoverable resources, in this paper we investigate the natural gas production of four neighboring South Asian states: Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, and Pakistan. We use a number of homogeneous diffusion models, with convenient extensions, and check the model validation in terms of prediction capability. The results indicate that India and Myanmar have already extracted more than 50% of their ultimately recoverable natural gas resources (URR), whereas good prospects for natural gas extraction remain in the near future for Bangladesh and Pakistan. The four neighboring Asian states can build a sustainable power reserve system for natural gas to meet their increasing demand within a medium-term horizon. Some further policy implications are also suggested in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Darda, Md Abud & Guseo, Renato & Mortarino, Cinzia, 2015. "Nonlinear production path and an alternative reserves estimate for South Asian natural gas," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 654-664.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:654-664
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2015.03.069
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032115002221
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.rser.2015.03.069?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Halder, P.K. & Paul, N. & Beg, M.R.A., 2014. "Assessment of biomass energy resources and related technologies practice in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 444-460.
    2. Guseo, Renato, 2011. "Worldwide cheap and heavy oil productions: A long-term energy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5572-5577, September.
    3. Wadud, Zia & Dey, Himadri S. & Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor & Khan, Shahidul I., 2011. "Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7372-7380.
    4. Abada, Ibrahim & Briat, Vincent & Massol, Olivier, 2013. "Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 240-251.
    5. Kankal, Murat & AkpInar, Adem & Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan & Özsahin, Talat Sükrü, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting of Turkey's energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1927-1939, May.
    6. Zaman, Khalid & Mushtaq Khan, Muhammad & Ahmad, Mehboob, 2013. "Factors affecting commercial energy consumption in Pakistan: Progress in energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 107-135.
    7. V. Srinivasan & Charlotte H. Mason, 1986. "Technical Note—Nonlinear Least Squares Estimation of New Product Diffusion Models," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(2), pages 169-178.
    8. Robertson, Alastair & Soopramanien, Didier & Fildes, Robert, 2007. "Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 265-275, June.
    9. Siemek, Jakub & Nagy, Stanislaw & Rychlicki, Stanislaw, 2003. "Estimation of natural-gas consumption in Poland based on the logistic-curve interpretation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(1-2), pages 1-7, May.
    10. Frank M. Bass & Trichy V. Krishnan & Dipak C. Jain, 1994. "Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 203-223.
    11. Amjid, Syed S. & Bilal, Muhammad Q. & Nazir, Muhammad S. & Hussain, Altaf, 2011. "Biogas, renewable energy resource for Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 2833-2837, August.
    12. Frank M. Bass, 1969. "A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(5), pages 215-227, January.
    13. Malik, Sidra Nisar & Sukhera, Osama Rafiq, 2012. "Management of natural gas resources and search for alternative renewable energy resources: A case study of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1282-1290.
    14. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Ting, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas supply in China: Production peak and import trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 225-233.
    15. Jiang, BinBin & Wenying, Chen & Yuefeng, Yu & Lemin, Zeng & Victor, David, 2008. "The future of natural gas consumption in Beijing, Guangdong and Shanghai: An assessment utilizing MARKAL," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3286-3299, September.
    16. Dalla Valle, Alessandra & Furlan, Claudia, 2014. "Diffusion of nuclear energy in some developing countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 143-153.
    17. Anne-Sophie Corbeau, 2010. "Natural Gas in India," IEA Energy Papers 2010/8, OECD Publishing.
    18. Mohr, S.H. & Evans, G.M., 2011. "Long term forecasting of natural gas production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5550-5560, September.
    19. Tin Zaw Myint & Nay Aung, 2012. "Myanmar Country Report," Chapters, in: Shigeru Kimura (ed.), Analysis on Energy Saving Potential in East Asia, chapter 12, pages 225-242, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    20. Kyaw MYINT, . "Myanmar Country Report," Chapters, in: Fauziah ZEN & Michael REGAN (ed.), Financing ASEAN Connectivity, chapter 6, pages 221-267, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    21. Tin Zaw Myint, 2016. "Myanmar Country Report," Chapters, in: Shigeru Kimura & Han Phoumin (ed.), Energy Outlook and Energy Saving Potential in East Asia 2016, chapter 12, pages 237-259, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    22. Rao, K. Usha & Kishore, V.V.N., 2010. "A review of technology diffusion models with special reference to renewable energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 1070-1078, April.
    23. Guseo, Renato & Mortarino, Cinzia & Darda, Md Abud, 2015. "Homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models: Algerian natural gas production," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 366-378.
    24. Soldo, Božidar, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-37.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean Gaston Tamba & Salom Ndjakomo Essiane & Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Francis Djanna Koffi & Jean Luc Nsouand l & Bozidar Soldo & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Forecasting Natural Gas: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 216-249.
    2. Furlan, Claudia & Mortarino, Cinzia, 2018. "Forecasting the impact of renewable energies in competition with non-renewable sources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1879-1886.
    3. Guidolin, Mariangela & Guseo, Renato, 2016. "The German energy transition: Modeling competition and substitution between nuclear power and Renewable Energy Technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1498-1504.
    4. Almas Heshmati & Shahrouz Abolhosseini, 2016. "European energy security: Challenges and green opportunities," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-21, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Almas Heshmati & Shahrouz Abolhosseini, 2016. "European energy security: Challenges and green opportunities," WIDER Working Paper Series 021, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Furlan, Claudia & Guidolin, Mariangela & Guseo, Renato, 2016. "Has the Fukushima accident influenced short-term consumption in the evolution of nuclear energy? An analysis of the world and seven leading countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 37-49.
    2. Jean Gaston Tamba & Salom Ndjakomo Essiane & Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Francis Djanna Koffi & Jean Luc Nsouand l & Bozidar Soldo & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Forecasting Natural Gas: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 216-249.
    3. Guseo, Renato & Mortarino, Cinzia & Darda, Md Abud, 2015. "Homogeneous and heterogeneous diffusion models: Algerian natural gas production," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 366-378.
    4. Guidolin, Mariangela & Guseo, Renato, 2016. "The German energy transition: Modeling competition and substitution between nuclear power and Renewable Energy Technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1498-1504.
    5. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, Haiyan & Zhou, Qingping & Wu, Jie & Qin, Shanshan, 2016. "China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1149-1167.
    6. Toka, Agorasti & Iakovou, Eleftherios & Vlachos, Dimitrios & Tsolakis, Naoum & Grigoriadou, Anastasia-Loukia, 2014. "Managing the diffusion of biomass in the residential energy sector: An illustrative real-world case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 56-69.
    7. Furlan, Claudia & Mortarino, Cinzia, 2018. "Forecasting the impact of renewable energies in competition with non-renewable sources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1879-1886.
    8. Barnes, Belinda & Southwell, Darren & Bruce, Sarah & Woodhams, Felicity, 2014. "Additionality, common practice and incentive schemes for the uptake of innovations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 43-61.
    9. Ye Li & Clemens Kool & Peter-Jan Engelen, 2020. "Analyzing the Business Case for Hydrogen-Fuel Infrastructure Investments with Endogenous Demand in The Netherlands: A Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Ramírez-Hassan, Andrés & Montoya-Blandón, Santiago, 2020. "Forecasting from others’ experience: Bayesian estimation of the generalized Bass model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 442-465.
    11. Yuri Peers & Dennis Fok & Philip Hans Franses, 2012. "Modeling Seasonality in New Product Diffusion," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 351-364, March.
    12. Vakratsas, Demetrios & Kolsarici, Ceren, 2008. "A dual-market diffusion model for a new prescription pharmaceutical," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 282-293.
    13. Tunstall, Thomas, 2015. "Iterative Bass Model forecasts for unconventional oil production in the Eagle Ford Shale," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P1), pages 580-588.
    14. Sang-Gun Lee & Eui-bang Lee & Chang-Gyu Yang, 2014. "Strategies for ICT product diffusion: the case of the Korean mobile communications market," Service Business, Springer;Pan-Pacific Business Association, vol. 8(1), pages 65-81, March.
    15. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2015. "Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-220.
    16. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
    17. Potočnik, Primož & Soldo, Božidar & Šimunović, Goran & Šarić, Tomislav & Jeromen, Andrej & Govekar, Edvard, 2014. "Comparison of static and adaptive models for short-term residential natural gas forecasting in Croatia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 94-103.
    18. Han, Myat Su & Cudjoe, Dan, 2020. "Determinants of energy-saving behavior of urban residents: Evidence from Myanmar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    19. Park, Sang Yong & Kim, Jong Wook & Lee, Duk Hee, 2011. "Development of a market penetration forecasting model for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3307-3315, June.
    20. Qiao, Weibiao & Liu, Wei & Liu, Enbin, 2021. "A combination model based on wavelet transform for predicting the difference between monthly natural gas production and consumption of U.S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:rensus:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:654-664. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/600126/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.