Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh
Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity – around 1.5 – for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mozumder, Pallab & Marathe, Achla, 2007. "Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 395-402, January.
- Arthur van Benthem & Mattia Romani, 2009. "Fuelling Growth: What Drives Energy Demand in Developing Countries?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 91-114.
- Ibrahim, Ibrahim B. & Hurst, Christopher, 1990. "Estimating energy and oil demand functions : A study of thirteen developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 93-102, April.
- Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
- Bloch, Farrell E., 1980. "Residential demand for natural gas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 371-383, May.
- Akinlo, A.E., 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from 11 Sub-Sahara African countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2391-2400, September.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010.
"Natural gas demand in Turkey,"
Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 211-219, January.
- Urban, F. & Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C., 2007. "Modelling energy systems for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3473-3482, June.
- Dermot Gately & Hiliard G. Huntington, 2002.
"The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-55.
- Gately, D. & Huntington, H.G., 2001. "The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand," Working Papers 01-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Islam, A.K.M. Sadrul & Islam, Mazharul & Rahman, Tazmilur, 2006. "Effective renewable energy activities in Bangladesh," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 677-688.
- Zia Wadud & Daniel J. Graham & Robert B. Noland, 2010. "Gasoline Demand with Heterogeneity in Household Responses," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 47-74.
- Miah, Md. Danesh & Kabir, Rashel Rana Mohammad Sirajul & Koike, Masao & Akther, Shalina & Yong Shin, Man, 2010. "Rural household energy consumption pattern in the disregarded villages of Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 997-1003, February.
- K Hossain, A & Badr, O, 2007. "Prospects of renewable energy utilisation for electricity generation in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(8), pages 1617-1649, October.
- World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4373, April.
- Ayres, Robert U. & Warr, Benjamin, 2005. "Accounting for growth: the role of physical work," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 181-209, June.
- Geem, Zong Woo & Roper, William E., 2009. "Energy demand estimation of South Korea using artificial neural network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4049-4054, October.
- Rofiqul Islam, M. & Rabiul Islam, M. & Rafiqul Alam Beg, M., 2008. "Renewable energy resources and technologies practice in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 299-343, February.
- Liang, Qiao-Mei & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Multi-regional input-output model for regional energy requirements and CO2 emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1685-1700, March.
- Robert A. Yaffee, 2010. "Forecast evaluation with Stata," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2010 10, Stata Users Group.
- Ayres, Robert U. & Turton, Hal & Casten, Tom, 2007. "Energy efficiency, sustainability and economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 634-648.
- Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Parikh, Jyoti & Purohit, Pallav & Maitra, Pallavi, 2007. "Demand projections of petroleum products and natural gas in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1825-1837.
- Cleveland, Cutler J. & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Stern, David I., 2000. "Aggregation and the role of energy in the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 301-317, February.
- Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2009. "Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4866, The World Bank.
- Professor A K M A Quader & Professor Edmond Gomes, 2002. "An Exploratory Review of Bangladesh Gas Sector: Latest Evidence and Areas of Further Research," CPD Working Paper 17, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:7372-7380. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.