Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh
Natural gas is the major indigenous source of energy in Bangladesh and accounts for almost one-half of all primary energy used in the country. Per capita and total energy use in Bangladesh is still very small, and it is important to understand how energy, and natural gas demand will evolve in the future. We develop a dynamic econometric model to understand the natural gas demand in Bangladesh, both in the national level, and also for a few sub-sectors. Our demand model shows large long run income elasticity – around 1.5 – for aggregate demand for natural gas. Forecasts into the future also show a larger demand in the future than predicted by various national and multilateral organizations. Even then, it is possible that our forecasts could still be at the lower end of the future energy demand. Price response was statistically not different from zero, indicating that prices are possibly too low and that there is a large suppressed demand for natural gas in the country.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ayres, Robert U. & Turton, Hal & Casten, Tom, 2007. "Energy efficiency, sustainability and economic growth," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 634-648.
- Ibrahim, Ibrahim B. & Hurst, Christopher, 1990. "Estimating energy and oil demand functions : A study of thirteen developing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 93-102, April.
- K Hossain, A & Badr, O, 2007. "Prospects of renewable energy utilisation for electricity generation in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(8), pages 1617-1649, October.
- Mozumder, Pallab & Marathe, Achla, 2007. "Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 395-402, January.
- Arthur van Benthem & Mattia Romani, 2009. "Fuelling Growth: What Drives Energy Demand in Developing Countries?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 91-114.
- Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Dermot Gately & Hiliard G. Huntington, 2002. "The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-55.
- Liang, Qiao-Mei & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "Multi-regional input-output model for regional energy requirements and CO2 emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1685-1700, March.
- Ayres, Robert U. & Warr, Benjamin, 2005. "Accounting for growth: the role of physical work," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 181-209, June.
- Jebaraj, S. & Iniyan, S., 2006. "A review of energy models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 281-311, August.
- World Bank, 2010. "World Development Indicators 2010," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 4373, October.
- Islam, A.K.M. Sadrul & Islam, Mazharul & Rahman, Tazmilur, 2006. "Effective renewable energy activities in Bangladesh," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 677-688.
- Akinlo, A.E., 2008. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from 11 Sub-Sahara African countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2391-2400, September.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010.
"Natural gas demand in Turkey,"
Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 211-219, January.
- Zia Wadud & Daniel J. Graham & Robert B. Noland, 2010. "Gasoline Demand with Heterogeneity in Household Responses," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 47-74.
- Robert A. Yaffee, 2010. "Forecast evaluation with Stata," United Kingdom Stata Users' Group Meetings 2010 10, Stata Users Group.
- Professor A K M A Quader & Professor Edmond Gomes, 2002. "An Exploratory Review of Bangladesh Gas Sector: Latest Evidence and Areas of Further Research," CPD Working Paper 17, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
- Bloch, Farrell E., 1980. "Residential demand for natural gas," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 371-383, May.
- Parikh, Jyoti & Purohit, Pallav & Maitra, Pallavi, 2007. "Demand projections of petroleum products and natural gas in India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1825-1837.
- Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2009. "Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4866, The World Bank.
- Miah, Md. Danesh & Kabir, Rashel Rana Mohammad Sirajul & Koike, Masao & Akther, Shalina & Yong Shin, Man, 2010. "Rural household energy consumption pattern in the disregarded villages of Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 997-1003, February.
- Cleveland, Cutler J. & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Stern, David I., 2000. "Aggregation and the role of energy in the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 301-317, February.
- Rofiqul Islam, M. & Rabiul Islam, M. & Rafiqul Alam Beg, M., 2008. "Renewable energy resources and technologies practice in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 299-343, February.
- Geem, Zong Woo & Roper, William E., 2009. "Energy demand estimation of South Korea using artificial neural network," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4049-4054, October.
- Urban, F. & Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C., 2007. "Modelling energy systems for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3473-3482, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:11:p:7372-7380. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.