Natural gas demand in Turkey
On average, energy demand of Turkey is mounting by 8% annually, one of the highest rates in the world. Among primary energy sources, natural gas is the fastest growing one in Turkey. Gas consumption started at 0.5Â bcm (billion cubic meters) in 1987 and reached approximately 35 bcm in 2007. Turkish natural gas usage is projected to further increase remarkably in coming years. The present paper focuses the characteristics of this demand and estimates short and long-run price and income elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand in Turkey. The future growth in this demand is also forecasted using an ARIMA modelling and the results are compared with official projections. The paper reveals that natural gas demand elasticities are quite low, meaning that consumers do not respond possible abusive price increases by decreasing their demand or substituting natural gas with other energy sources. Since consumers are prone to monopoly abuse by incumbent, there is a need for market regulation in Turkish natural gas market. Based on forecasts obtained, it is clear that the current official projections do not over/under-estimate natural gas demand although past official projections highly overestimated it.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 87 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ünler, Alper, 2008. "Improvement of energy demand forecasts using swarm intelligence: The case of Turkey with projections to 2025," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1937-1944, June.
- Haldenbilen, Soner & Ceylan, Halim, 2005. "Genetic algorithm approach to estimate transport energy demand in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 89-98, January.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007.
"Nuclear power in open energy markets: A case study of Turkey,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3061-3073, May.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007. "Nuclear Power in Open Energy Markets: A case study of Turkey," MPRA Paper 19098, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dermot Gately, 1992. "Imperfect Price-Reversibility of U.S. Gasoline Demand: Asymmetric Responses to Price Increases and Declines," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 179-208.
- Akay, Diyar & Atak, Mehmet, 2007. "Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1670-1675.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Drollas, Leonidas P., 1984. "The demand for gasoline : Further evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 71-82, January.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2002. "Turkey and Europe: Undivided but not united," MPRA Paper 26928, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Utgikar, V.P. & Scott, J.P., 2006. "Energy forecasting: Predictions, reality and analysis of causes of error," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3087-3092, November.
- Kouris, George, 1981. "Elasticities - science or fiction?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 66-70, April.
- Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac, 2007. "ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1701-1708, March.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007.
"Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and ARIMA modelling: A case study of Turkey,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1129-1146, February.
- Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007. "Electricity Demand Analysis Using Cointegration and ARIMA Modelling: A case study of Turkey," MPRA Paper 19099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ozturk, Harun Kemal & Ceylan, Halim & Canyurt, Olcay Ersel & Hepbasli, Arif, 2005. "Electricity estimation using genetic algorithm approach: a case study of Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1003-1012.
- Duran Toksari, M., 2007. "Ant colony optimization approach to estimate energy demand of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3984-3990, August.
- Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1995. "The imperfect price reversibility of non-transport oil demand in the OECD," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 59-71, January.
- Ryan, David L. & Plourde, Andre, 2002. "Smaller and smaller? The price responsiveness of nontransport oil demand," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 285-317.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1979. "The Structure of World Energy Demand," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661772, June.
- Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
- Dahl, Carol & Sterner, Thomas, 1991. "Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 203-210, July.
- Ediger, Volkan S. & Camdali, Unal, 2007. "Energy and exergy efficiencies in Turkish transportation sector, 1988-2004," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1238-1244, February.
- Bentzen, Jan & Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand : A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 9-16, January.
- Kilic, A.M., 2006. "Turkey's natural gas necessity, consumption and future perspectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1928-1934, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:87:y:2010:i:1:p:211-219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.