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The impact of the shale gas revolution on the U.S. and Japanese natural gas markets

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  • Wakamatsu, Hiroki
  • Aruga, Kentaka

Abstract

We investigated whether the increase in the US shale gas production changed the structures of the US and Japanese natural gas markets using market data for the period 2002:5–2012:5. Our analysis consists of a structural break test and market integration analysis. The Bai and Perron structural break test detected a break point of natural gas prices and consumption in 2005 as well as other external shocks – Hurricane Katrina and the Lehman Shock – that are irrelevant to shale gas development. We eliminated the impact of these shocks by separating the data set using the breaks identified in our analysis. We found the breaks skewed the estimation; a market linkage existed between the US and Japanese markets in the original data set, while it did not in the separated data. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model also indicated a significant change before and after the break point; the US market had a one-side influence on the Japanese market before 2005, but the influence disappeared after 2005. Our results implied that the shale gas revolution, triggered by the increase in shale gas production in 2005, caused the change in the relationship between the US and Japanese natural gas markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Wakamatsu, Hiroki & Aruga, Kentaka, 2013. "The impact of the shale gas revolution on the U.S. and Japanese natural gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1002-1009.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:62:y:2013:i:c:p:1002-1009
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.07.122
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arora, Vipin & Cai, Yiyong, 2014. "U.S. natural gas exports and their global impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 95-103.
    2. Shi, Xunpeng & Padinjare Variam, Hari Malamakkavu, 2016. "Gas and LNG trading hubs, hub indexation and destination flexibility in East Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 587-596.
    3. Wiggins, Seth & Etienne, Xiaoli, 2015. "US Natural Gas Price Determination: Fundamentals and the Development of Shale," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205788, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    4. Caporin, Massimiliano & Fontini, Fulvio, 2017. "The long-run oil–natural gas price relationship and the shale gas revolution," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 511-519.
    5. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The impact of the North American shale gas revolution on regional natural gas markets: Evidence from the regime-switching model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 167-178.
    6. Lee, Woo Jin & Sohn, So Young, 2014. "Patent analysis to identify shale gas development in China and the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 111-115.
    7. repec:eee:eneeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:98-110 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Zhong, Dong-Liang & Li, Zheng & Lu, Yi-Yu & Wang, Jia-Le & Yan, Jin, 2015. "Evaluation of CO2 removal from a CO2+CH4 gas mixture using gas hydrate formation in liquid water and THF solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 133-141.
    9. repec:eee:eneeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:196-205 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Cotton, Matthew & Rattle, Imogen & Van Alstine, James, 2014. "Shale gas policy in the United Kingdom: An argumentative discourse analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 427-438.
    11. Potts, Todd B. & Yerger, David B., 2016. "Marcellus Shale and structural breaks in oil and gas markets: The case of Pennsylvania," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 50-58.
    12. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Bulut, Ümit & Sualp, M. Nedim, 2016. "How did the US economy react to shale gas production revolution? An advanced time series approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 963-977.
    13. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W. & Bessler, David A., 2015. "Price Dynamics under Structural Changes with Unknown Break Points among North America Natural Gas Spot Markets," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205661, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    14. repec:eee:enepol:v:113:y:2018:i:c:p:68-75 is not listed on IDEAS

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