Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products
This paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by such events. Then we propose to apply a hierarchical CMS (Constant Market Share) model to all sub-periods determined by the detected change points to study the short- and long-term impact of those events on growth causes. Application to China–Germany trade in agri-food products shows that China's accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on corresponding series. But its long-term impact on China's export competitiveness was clearly positive. The short-term impact of the EU's CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform on Germany's exports to China was also negative. Its long-term impact on export competitiveness was sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The financial crisis of 2008 caused a significant reduction of China's agri-food exports to Germany. But Germany's exports to China in 2009 were not affected by the financial crisis as much.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William O. Brown, Jr. & Richard C.K. Burdekin, "undated".
"Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective,"
Claremont Colleges Working Papers
1999-29, Claremont Colleges.
- Brown, William O. & Burdekin, Richard C. K., 2000. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(01), pages 216-231, March.
- Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Krämer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2002.
"Testing and dating of structural changes in practice,"
2002,39, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
- Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
- Robert W. Ackrill, 2000. "CAP Reform 1999: A Crisis in the Making," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 343-353, 06.
- Kevin Chen & Lian Xu & Yufeng Duan, 2000. "Ex-Post competitiveness of China's export in agri-food products: 1980-96," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 281-294.
- Marc D. Weidenmier, 2002. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 875-890, April.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Richardson, J David, 1971. "Some Sensitivity Tests for a 'Constant-Market-Shares' Analysis of Export Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 300-304, August.
- David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2005. "Evidence for common features in G7 macroeconomic time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 165-175.
- Virgiliu Midrigan & Joseph Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2010.
"The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?,"
2010 Meeting Papers
107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 16059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richardson, J. David, 1971. "Constant-market-shares analysis of export growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 227-239, May.
- Hong Zhang, 2004. "The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 119-137.
- Merkies, A H Q M & van der Meer, T, 1988. "A Theoretical Foundation for Constant Market Share Analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 65-80.
- Elena IANCHOVICHINA & Will MARTIN, 2006. "Trade Impacts of China's World Trade Organization Accession," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 45-65.
- Marc D. Weidenmier, "undated". "Turning Points during the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-24, Claremont Colleges.
- Krämer, Walter & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2000.
"Testing for structural change in the presence of long memory,"
2000,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
- Walter Kramer & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2002. "Testing for Structural Changes in the Presence of Long Memory," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(3), pages 235-242, December.
- George Alessandria & Joseph P. Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2010. "The great trade collapse of 2008-2009: an inventory adjustment?," Working Papers 10-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Jan Fagerberg & Gunnar Sollie, 1987. "The method of constant market shares analysis reconsidered," Working Papers Archives 1987001, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
- Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-1369, November.
- Milana, Carlo, 1988. "Constant-market-shares analysis and index number theory," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 453-478.
- Malouche, Mariem, 2009. "Trade and trade finance developments in 14 developing countries post September 2008 - a World Bank survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5138, The World Bank.
- Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Mark A. Wynne & Erasmus K. Kersting, 2009. "Trade, globalization and the financial crisis," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 4(nov).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:6:p:2359-2368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.