Modeling of the impact of the financial crisis and China's accession to WTO on China's exports to Germany
We focus on discussing the impact of China's accession to WTO and the financial crisis on China's exports to Germany, particularly in agricultural products, based on some most recent proposals. Firstly, structural breaks caused by those events are detected. Then the Box–Cox model and a new tree-form Constant Market Share (CMS) model are fitted to discover the long-term impact of those events on the trade relationship between China and Germany and the growth causes of China's exports to Germany. We found that China's accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on China's exports and its market share in agricultural products, but a positive short-term impact on its market share in industrial products and a positive long-term impact on its exports and market share in both classes. The tree-form CMS model shows the growth of China's exports to Germany due to competitiveness after this event was much higher than before. The financial crisis exhibited a negative short-term impact on China's exports to Germany, but a positive short-term impact on China's market share and the trade relationship between both countries in industrial products. China's market share in agricultural products was not affected by the financial crisis.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
- Marc D. Weidenmier, 2002. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 875-890, April.
- William O. Brown, Jr. & Richard C.K. Burdekin, .
"Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective,"
Claremont Colleges Working Papers
1999-29, Claremont Colleges.
- Brown, William O. & Burdekin, Richard C. K., 2000. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(01), pages 216-231, March.
- Guo, Zhichao & Feng, Yuanhua & Tan, Xiangyong, 2011.
"Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products,"
Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2359-2368.
- Zhichao Guo & Yuanhua Feng & Xiangyong Tan, 2010. "Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products," Working Papers CIE 32, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
- Milana, Carlo, 1988. "Constant-market-shares analysis and index number theory," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 453-478.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- Tom Doan, . "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Kevin Chen & Lian Xu & Yufeng Duan, 2000. "Ex-Post competitiveness of China's export in agri-food products: 1980-96," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 281-294.
- Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005.
"Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
- Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2004. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0362, European Central Bank.
- Kramer, Walter & Ploberger, Werner & Alt, Raimund, 1988. "Testing for Structural Change in Dynamic Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1355-69, November.
- Jorge Chami Batista, 2008. "Competition between Brazil and other exporting countries in the US import market: a new extension of constant-market-shares analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(19), pages 2477-2487.
- Malouche, Mariem, 2009. "Trade and trade finance developments in 14 developing countries post September 2008 - a World Bank survey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5138, The World Bank.
- Richardson, J David, 1971. "Some Sensitivity Tests for a 'Constant-Market-Shares' Analysis of Export Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 300-04, August.
- David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2005. "Evidence for common features in G7 macroeconomic time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 165-175.
- Richardson, J. David, 1971. "Constant-market-shares analysis of export growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 227-239, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:474-483. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.