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A tree-form constant market share analysis for modelling growth causes in international trade

Author

Listed:
  • Yuanhua Feng

    (University of Paderborn)

  • Zhichao Guo

    (University of Paderborn)

  • Christian Peitz

    (University of Paderborn)

  • Xiangyong Tan

    (China Agricultural Universtity, Beijing Technology and Business University)

Abstract

This paper introduces a tree-form constant market share (CMS) analysis for modelling growth causes in international trade between a focus country and a single destination based on a complex data set classified at three levels. Basic properties of this model are investigated briefly. The application of this model is discussed in detail. The tree-form CMS is a collection of the CMS models at different levels, including the entire, branch- and leaf-models, which consists of a large amount of information and has a wide application spectrum. It is found that if the market shares for all commodities are both homogenous in the initial and final years, respectively, or if the market growth in all of the categories is the same, the three level-effects will all vanish. Then the tree-form CMS model is applied to analyze the growth causes of China’s exports to Germany, particularly in agricultural products. Our results indicate that the growth causes before China’s accession to WTO (or the 2008 financial crisis) and thereafter are clearly different. Our theoretical findings are also confirmed by those data examples. Finally, some of the outputs of the tree-form CMS model are further analyzed using suitable statistical approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuanhua Feng & Zhichao Guo & Christian Peitz & Xiangyong Tan, 2011. "A tree-form constant market share analysis for modelling growth causes in international trade," Working Papers CIE 37, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pdn:ciepap:37
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    File URL: http://groups.uni-paderborn.de/wp-wiwi/RePEc/pdf/ciepap/WP37.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kevin Chen & Lian Xu & Yufeng Duan, 2000. "Ex-Post competitiveness of China's export in agri-food products: 1980-96," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 281-294.
    2. Jorge Chami Batista, 2008. "Competition between Brazil and other exporting countries in the US import market: a new extension of constant-market-shares analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(19), pages 2477-2487.
    3. Richardson, J. David, 1971. "Constant-market-shares analysis of export growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 227-239, May.
    4. Guo, Zhichao & Feng, Yuanhua & Tan, Xiangyong, 2011. "Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China–Germany trade in agri-food products," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2359-2368.
    5. Milana, Carlo, 1988. "Constant-market-shares analysis and index number theory," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 453-478.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhichao Guo & Yuanhua Feng & Xiangyong Tan, 2011. "Impact of China's accession to WTO and the financial crisis on China's exports to Germany," Working Papers CIE 36, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    2. Petra Čekmeová, 2016. "Konkurecieschopnosť ako cieľ hospodárskej politiky [Competitiveness as a Goal of Economic Policy]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 338-350.

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