Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products
This paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by such events. Then we propose to apply a hierarchical CMS (Constant Market Share) model to all sub-periods defined by the detected change points to study the short- and long-term impact of those events on growth causes. Application to China-Germany trade in agri-food products shows that China’s accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on corresponding series. But its long-term impact on China’s export competitiveness was definitely positive. The short-term impact of the EU’s CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform on Germany’s exports to China was also negative. Its long-term impact on export competitiveness was sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The financial crisis of 2008 caused a significant reduction of China’s agri-food exports to Germany. But Germany’s exports to China in 2009 were not affected by the financial crisis as much.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://wiwi.uni-paderborn.de/center/cie/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert W. Ackrill, 2000. "CAP Reform 1999: A Crisis in the Making," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 343-353, 06.
- Brown, William O. & Burdekin, Richard C. K., 2000.
"Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(01), pages 216-231, March.
- William O. Brown, Jr. & Richard C.K. Burdekin, . "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: A British Perspective," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-29, Claremont Colleges.
- Kevin Chen & Lian Xu & Yufeng Duan, 2000. "Ex-Post competitiveness of China's export in agri-food products: 1980-96," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 281-294.
- Hong Zhang, 2004. "The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 119-137.
- Richardson, J. David, 1971. "Constant-market-shares analysis of export growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 227-239, May.
- Elena IANCHOVICHINA & Will MARTIN, 2006. "Trade Impacts of China's World Trade Organization Accession," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 45-65.
- Marc D. Weidenmier, . "Turning Points during the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 1999-24, Claremont Colleges.
- David Harvey & Terence Mills, 2005. "Evidence for common features in G7 macroeconomic time series," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 165-175.
- Jan Fagerberg & Gunnar Sollie, 1987. "The method of constant market shares analysis reconsidered," Working Papers Archives 1987001, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
- Mark A. Wynne & Erasmus K. Kersting, 2009. "Trade, globalization and the financial crisis," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 4(nov).
- Richardson, J David, 1971. "Some Sensitivity Tests for a 'Constant-Market-Shares' Analysis of Export Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(3), pages 300-04, August.
- Milana, Carlo, 1988. "Constant-market-shares analysis and index number theory," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 453-478.
- Marc D. Weidenmier, 2002. "Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 875-890, April.
- Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pdn:ciepap:32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (WP-WiWi-Info)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.