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Short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on the growth causes of China-Germany trade in agri-food products

  • Zhichao Guo

    ()

    (China Agricultural University, University of Paderborn)

  • Yuanhua Feng

    ()

    (University of Paderborn)

  • Xiangyong Tan

    ()

    (China Agricultural Universtity, Beijing Technology and Business University)

This paper focuses on a systematic quantitative discussion of the short- and long-term impact of remarkable economic events on international trade in a two-stage framework. Firstly, procedures based on dummy variables are proposed to detect structural breaks, types and sizes of jumps caused by such events. Then we propose to apply a hierarchical CMS (Constant Market Share) model to all sub-periods defined by the detected change points to study the short- and long-term impact of those events on growth causes. Application to China-Germany trade in agri-food products shows that China’s accession to WTO had a negative short-term impact on corresponding series. But its long-term impact on China’s export competitiveness was definitely positive. The short-term impact of the EU’s CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) reform on Germany’s exports to China was also negative. Its long-term impact on export competitiveness was sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The financial crisis of 2008 caused a significant reduction of China’s agri-food exports to Germany. But Germany’s exports to China in 2009 were not affected by the financial crisis as much.

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File URL: http://groups.uni-paderborn.de/wp-wiwi/RePEc/pdf/ciepap/WP32.pdf
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Paper provided by Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics in its series Working Papers CIE with number 32.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pdn:ciepap:32
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