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Natural gas demand in Turkey

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  • Erdogdu, Erkan

Abstract

On average, energy demand of Turkey is mounting by 8% annually, one of the highest rates in the world. Among primary energy sources, natural gas is the fastest growing one in Turkey. Gas consumption started at 0.5 bcm (billion cubic meters) in 1987 and reached approximately 35 bcm in 2007. Turkish natural gas usage is projected to further increase remarkably in coming years. The present paper focuses the characteristics of this demand and estimates short and long-run price and income elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand in Turkey. The future growth in this demand is also forecasted using an ARIMA modelling and the results are compared with official projections. The paper reveals that natural gas demand elasticities are quite low, meaning that consumers do not respond possible abusive price increases by decreasing their demand or substituting natural gas with other energy sources. Since consumers are prone to monopoly abuse by incumbent, there is a need for market regulation in Turkish natural gas market. Based on forecasts obtained, it is clear that the current official projections do not over/under-estimate natural gas demand although past official projections highly overestimated it.

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  • Erdogdu, Erkan, 2009. "Natural gas demand in Turkey," MPRA Paper 19091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19091
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    Cited by:

    1. Üster, Halit & Dilaveroğlu, Şebnem, 2014. "Optimization for design and operation of natural gas transmission networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 56-69.
    2. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    3. Wakamatsu, Hiroki & Aruga, Kentaka, 2013. "The impact of the shale gas revolution on the U.S. and Japanese natural gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1002-1009.
    4. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2016. "Asymmetric volatility in European day-ahead power markets: A comparative microeconomic analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 398-409.
    5. Payne, James E. & Loomis, David G. & Wilson, Renardo, 2011. "Residential Natural Gas Demand in Illinois: Evidence from the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 41(2).
    6. Çetin, Tamer & Yüksel, Fatih, 2014. "Empirical investigation on energy dependence-consumption nexus: Evidence from Turkish natural gas market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 243-251.
    7. Serli Kiremitciyan & Ahmet Goncu & Tolga Umut Kuzubas, 2014. "A Comparison of Stochastic Models of Natural Gas Consumption," Working Papers 2014/10, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    8. Wang, Ting & Lin, Boqiang, 2014. "China's natural gas consumption and subsidies—From a sector perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 541-551.
    9. Ahmet Goncu & Mehmet Oguz Karahan & Tolga Umut Kuzubas, 2013. "Forecasting Daily Residential Natural Gas Consumption: A Dynamic Temperature Modelling Approach," Working Papers 2013/11, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    10. Ackah, Ishmael, 2015. "Accounting for the effect of exogenous non-Economic variables on natural gas demand in oil producing African countries," MPRA Paper 81553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Galip Altinay & A. Talha Yalta, 2016. "Estimating the evolution of elasticities of natural gas demand: the case of Istanbul, Turkey," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 201-220, August.
    12. Wadud, Zia & Dey, Himadri S. & Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor & Khan, Shahidul I., 2011. "Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7372-7380.
    13. Leng Wong, Siang & Chia, Wai-Mun & Chang, Youngho, 2013. "Energy consumption and energy R&D in OECD: Perspectives from oil prices and economic growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1581-1590.
    14. Murat Yalçıntaş & Melih Bulu & Murat Küçükvar & Hamidreza Samadi, 2015. "A Framework for Sustainable Urban Water Management through Demand and Supply Forecasting: The Case of Istanbul," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(8), pages 1-18, August.

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    Keywords

    Turkish natural gas demand; Elasticity; ARIMA modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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