IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v10y2017i11p1868-d118909.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Aziz Ur Rehman

    (State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)

  • Yanpeng Cai

    (State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    Institute for Energy, Environment and Sustainable Communities, University of Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada)

  • Rizwan Fazal

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), Quaid-e-Azam University Campus, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan)

  • Gordhan Das Walasai

    (Department of Mechanical Engineering, Quaid-e-Awam University of Engineering, Science and Technology, Nawabshah 67480, Pakistan)

  • Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    (Department of Electrical Engineering, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro 76062, Pakistan)

Abstract

Energy planning and policy development require an in-depth assessment of energy resources and long-term demand forecast estimates. Pakistan, unfortunately, lacks reliable data on its energy resources as well do not have dependable long-term energy demand forecasts. As a result, the policy makers could not come up with an effective energy policy in the history of the country. Energy demand forecast has attained greatest ever attention in the perspective of growing population and diminishing fossil fuel resources. In this study, Pakistan’s energy demand forecast for electricity, natural gas, oil, coal and LPG across all the sectors of the economy have been undertaken. Three different energy demand forecasting methodologies, i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Holt-Winter and Long-range Energy Alternate Planning (LEAP) model were used. The demand forecast estimates of each of these methods were compared using annual energy demand data. The results of this study suggest that ARIMA is more appropriate for energy demand forecasting for Pakistan compared to Holt-Winter model and LEAP model. It is estimated that industrial sector’s demand shall be highest in the year 2035 followed by transport and domestic sectors. The results further suggest that energy fuel mix will change considerably, such that oil will be the most highly consumed energy form (38.16%) followed by natural gas (36.57%), electricity (16.22%), coal (7.52%) and LPG (1.52%) in 2035. In view of higher demand forecast of fossil fuels consumption, this study recommends that government should take the initiative for harnessing renewable energy resources for meeting future energy demand to not only avert huge import bill but also achieving energy security and sustainability in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Yanpeng Cai & Rizwan Fazal & Gordhan Das Walasai & Nayyar Hussain Mirjat, 2017. "An Integrated Modeling Approach for Forecasting Long-Term Energy Demand in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:11:p:1868-:d:118909
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1868/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/10/11/1868/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mirza, Umar K. & Ahmad, Nasir & Majeed, Tariq & Harijan, Khanji, 2007. "Wind energy development in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(9), pages 2179-2190, December.
    2. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Usman Ahmad, 2008. "Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 437-455.
    3. Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac & Ugurlu, Berkin, 2006. "Forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in Turkey using a comparative regression and ARIMA model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3836-3846, December.
    4. Rauf, Omer & Wang, Shujie & Yuan, Peng & Tan, Junzhe, 2015. "An overview of energy status and development in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 892-931.
    5. Raza, Syed Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Energy conservation policies, growth and trade performance: Evidence of feedback hypothesis in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-10.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi, 2012. "The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 146-153.
    7. Rob J Hyndman & Shu Fan, 2008. "Density forecasting for long-term peak electricity demand," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/08, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Zeshan, Mohammad & Zaman, Khalid, 2015. "Does renewable energy consumption add in economic growth? An application of auto-regressive distributed lag model in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 576-585.
    9. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Farooq, Abdul, 2013. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 87-94.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zeshan, Muhammad & Afza, Talat, 2012. "Is energy consumption effective to spur economic growth in Pakistan? New evidence from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2310-2319.
    11. Alam, Shaista & Fatima, Ambreen & Butt, Muhammad S., 2007. "Sustainable development in Pakistan in the context of energy consumption demand and environmental degradation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 825-837, October.
    12. Francisco Martínez-Álvarez & Alicia Troncoso & Gualberto Asencio-Cortés & José C. Riquelme, 2015. "A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Electricity-Related Time Series Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(11), pages 1-32, November.
    13. Komal, Rabia & Abbas, Faisal, 2015. "Linking financial development, economic growth and energy consumption in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 211-220.
    14. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010. "Natural gas demand in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 211-219, January.
    15. Sahir, Mukhtar H. & Qureshi, Arshad H., 2007. "Specific concerns of Pakistan in the context of energy security issues and geopolitics of the region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 2031-2037, April.
    16. Mustafa Akpinar & Nejat Yumusak, 2016. "Year Ahead Demand Forecast of City Natural Gas Using Seasonal Time Series Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.
    17. Shaikh, Faheemullah & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "The diagnosis of an electricity crisis and alternative energy development in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1172-1185.
    18. Perwez, Usama & Sohail, Ahmed & Hassan, Syed Fahad & Zia, Usman, 2015. "The long-term forecast of Pakistan's electricity supply and demand: An application of long range energy alternatives planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 2423-2435.
    19. Kankal, Murat & AkpInar, Adem & Kömürcü, Murat Ihsan & Özsahin, Talat Sükrü, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting of Turkey's energy consumption using socio-economic and demographic variables," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(5), pages 1927-1939, May.
    20. Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Uqaili, Mohammad Aslam & Harijan, Khanji & Valasai, Gordhan Das & Shaikh, Faheemullah & Waris, M., 2017. "A review of energy and power planning and policies of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 110-127.
    21. Anwar, Javed, 2016. "Analysis of energy security, environmental emission and fuel import costs under energy import reduction targets: A case of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1065-1078.
    22. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Riaz, Khalid & Maqbool Khan, Atif & Bibi, Salma, 2015. "Energy consumption–economic growth nexus for Pakistan: Taming the untamed," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 890-896.
    23. Saab, Samer & Badr, Elie & Nasr, George, 2001. "Univariate modeling and forecasting of energy consumption: the case of electricity in Lebanon," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-14.
    24. Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac, 2007. "ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1701-1708, March.
    25. Kessides, Ioannis N., 2013. "Chaos in power: Pakistan's electricity crisis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 271-285.
    26. Zuberi, M. Jibran S. & Ali, Shazia F., 2015. "Greenhouse effect reduction by recovering energy from waste landfills in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 117-131.
    27. Hussain, Anwar & Rahman, Muhammad & Memon, Junaid Alam, 2016. "Forecasting electricity consumption in Pakistan: the way forward," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 73-80.
    28. Javed Anwar, 2010. "An Analysis of Energy Security Using the Partial Equilibrium Model: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 925-940.
    29. Huang, Yophy & Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey & Peng, Chieh-Yu, 2011. "The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 6790-6803.
    30. Nasir, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Faiz, 2011. "Environmental Kuznets Curve for carbon emissions in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1857-1864, March.
    31. Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Sana Riaz, 2008. "Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 45-58, Jul-Dec.
    32. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting the CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2450-2458.
    33. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    34. Muneer, T. & Asif, M., 2007. "Prospects for secure and sustainable electricity supply for Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 654-671, May.
    35. Valasai, Gordhan Das & Uqaili, Muhammad Aslam & Memon, HafeezUr Rahman & Samoo, Saleem Raza & Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Harijan, Khanji, 2017. "Overcoming electricity crisis in Pakistan: A review of sustainable electricity options," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 734-745.
    36. Sen, Parag & Roy, Mousumi & Pal, Parimal, 2016. "Application of ARIMA for forecasting energy consumption and GHG emission: A case study of an Indian pig iron manufacturing organization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 1031-1038.
    37. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2007. "Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and ARIMA modelling: A case study of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1129-1146, February.
    38. Rossana Galli, 1998. "The Relationship Between Energy Intensity and Income Levels: Forecasting Long Term Energy Demand in Asian Emerging Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 85-105.
    39. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2009. "Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4866, The World Bank.
    40. Ziad Alahdad, 2012. "Pakistan’s Energy Sector: From Crisis to Crisis-Breaking the Chain," PIDE Monograph Series 2012:6, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    41. Rehana Siddiqui, 2004. "Energy and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 175-200.
    42. Zaman, Khalid & Khan, Muhammad M. & Ahmad, Mehboob & Rustam, Rabiah, 2012. "Determinants of electricity consumption function in Pakistan: Old wine in a new bottle," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 623-634.
    43. Arshad, Ameena & Zakaria, Muhammad & Junyang, Xi, 2016. "Energy prices and economic growth in Pakistan: A macro-econometric analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 25-33.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ur Rehman, Syed Aziz & Cai, Yanpeng & Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Walasai, Gordhan Das & Nafees, Mohammad, 2019. "Energy-environment-economy nexus in Pakistan: Lessons from a PAK-TIMES model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 200-211.
    2. Fazal, Rizwan & Rehman, Syed Aziz Ur & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2022. "Graph theoretic approach to expose the energy-induced crisis in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Rizwan Fazal & Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Muhammad Ishaq Bhatti & Atiq Ur Rehman & Fariha Arooj & Umar Hayat, 2021. "A Cross-Sectoral Investigation of the Energy–Environment–Economy Causal Nexus in Pakistan: Policy Suggestions for Improved Energy Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-22, September.
    4. Sana Bashir & Iftikhar Ahmad & Sajid Rashid Ahmad, 2018. "Low-Emission Modeling for Energy Demand in the Household Sector: A Study of Pakistan as a Developing Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, October.
    5. Fazal, Rizwan & Rehman, Syed Aziz Ur & Rehman, Atiq Ur & Bhatti, Muhammad Ishaq & Hussain, Anwar, 2021. "Energy-environment-economy causal nexus in Pakistan: A graph theoretic approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    6. Khan, Muhammad Arshad & Abbas, Faisal, 2016. "The dynamics of electricity demand in Pakistan: A panel cointegration analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1159-1178.
    7. Abdullah, Fahad Bin & Iqbal, Rizwan & Hyder, Syed Irfan & Jawaid, Mohammad, 2020. "Energy security indicators for Pakistan: An integrated approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Nawaz, Kishwar & Lahiani, Amine & Roubaud, David, 2023. "Do natural resources determine energy consumption in Pakistan? The importance of quantile asymmetries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 200-211.
    9. Jamil, Rehan, 2020. "Hydroelectricity consumption forecast for Pakistan using ARIMA modeling and supply-demand analysis for the year 2030," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1-10.
    10. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    11. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    12. Mirjat, Nayyar Hussain & Uqaili, Mohammad Aslam & Harijan, Khanji & Valasai, Gordhan Das & Shaikh, Faheemullah & Waris, M., 2017. "A review of energy and power planning and policies of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 110-127.
    13. Aized, Tauseef & Shahid, Muhammad & Bhatti, Amanat Ali & Saleem, Muhammad & Anandarajah, Gabrial, 2018. "Energy security and renewable energy policy analysis of Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 155-169.
    14. Syed Aziz Ur Rehman & Yanpeng Cai & Nayyar Hussain Mirjat & Gordhan Das Walasai & Izaz Ali Shah & Sharafat Ali, 2017. "The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-24, November.
    15. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Riaz, Khalid & Maqbool Khan, Atif & Bibi, Salma, 2015. "Energy consumption–economic growth nexus for Pakistan: Taming the untamed," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 890-896.
    16. Hayat, Farah & Pirzada, Muhammad Daniel Saeed & Khan, Abid Ali, 2018. "The validation of Granger causality through formulation and use of finance-growth-energy indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 1859-1867.
    17. Duan, Wenqi & Khurshid, Adnan & Nazir, Naila & Khan, Khalid & Calin, Adrian Cantemir, 2022. "From gray to green: Energy crises and the role of CPEC," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 188-207.
    18. Zhang, Jinjun & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Hussain, Khadim & Akram, Sabahat & Alvarado, Rafael & Almulhim, Abdulaziz I., 2022. "Another perspective towards energy consumption factors in Pakistan: Fresh policy insights from novel methodological framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    19. Kashif Munir & Sana Nadeem, 2022. "Disaggregate Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Sectoral Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 296-306.
    20. Sadiqa, Ayesha & Gulagi, Ashish & Breyer, Christian, 2018. "Energy transition roadmap towards 100% renewable energy and role of storage technologies for Pakistan by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 518-533.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:11:p:1868-:d:118909. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.