IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v141y2017icp1269-1284.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Breeder hybrid algorithm approach for natural gas demand forecasting model

Author

Listed:
  • Karadede, Yusuf
  • Ozdemir, Gultekin
  • Aydemir, Erdal

Abstract

A breeder hybrid algorithm consisting of the constitution of nonlinear regression-based breeder genetic algorithm and simulated annealing is proposed for the objective of forecasting the natural gas demand with a smaller error rate. The main aim of this study is to show general natural gas demand forecasting model of the breeder hybrid algorithm based nonlinear regression. The most important difference that distinguishes this natural gas demand forecasting model from other models in the literature is that the proposed model evolves continuously with the best solutions in both the breeder genetic algorithm and simulated annealing parts. It is applied to Turkey natural gas demand forecasting to show its superiority and applicability. The consumption amount of natural gas has between 1985 and 2000 is determined as dependent variable whereas the independent variables are determined as the gross national product, population and the growth rate. Then, the consumption amounts of natural gas between 2001 and 2014 are forecasted with significantly small MAPE values that are obtained 0.0188 and 0.0143 for year 2014 using the proposed algorithms and compared to different solutions in the literature. The proposed algorithms are superior to the comparable algorithms in the literature. Then, two scenarios are applied for the years between 2015 and 2030 for future projection.

Suggested Citation

  • Karadede, Yusuf & Ozdemir, Gultekin & Aydemir, Erdal, 2017. "Breeder hybrid algorithm approach for natural gas demand forecasting model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1269-1284.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:1269-1284
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.09.130
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217316511
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2017.09.130?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Yu, Hsiao-Cheng & Yang, Yeou-Herng, 2011. "Modeling the CO2 emissions, energy use, and economic growth in Russia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5094-5100.
    2. Khan, Muhammad Arshad, 2015. "Modelling and forecasting the demand for natural gas in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1145-1159.
    3. Ming Meng & Dongxiao Niu & Wei Sun, 2011. "Forecasting Monthly Electric Energy Consumption Using Feature Extraction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(10), pages 1-13, September.
    4. Yu, Feng & Xu, Xiaozhong, 2014. "A short-term load forecasting model of natural gas based on optimized genetic algorithm and improved BP neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 102-113.
    5. Pino-Mejías, Rafael & Pérez-Fargallo, Alexis & Rubio-Bellido, Carlos & Pulido-Arcas, Jesús A., 2017. "Comparison of linear regression and artificial neural networks models to predict heating and cooling energy demand, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 24-36.
    6. Ünler, Alper, 2008. "Improvement of energy demand forecasts using swarm intelligence: The case of Turkey with projections to 2025," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1937-1944, June.
    7. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010. "Natural gas demand in Turkey," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 211-219, January.
    8. Wang, Haichao & Yin, Wusong & Abdollahi, Elnaz & Lahdelma, Risto & Jiao, Wenling, 2015. "Modelling and optimization of CHP based district heating system with renewable energy production and energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 401-421.
    9. Kamyab, Farhad & Bahrami, Shahab, 2016. "Efficient operation of energy hubs in time-of-use and dynamic pricing electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 343-355.
    10. Li, Junchen & Dong, Xiucheng & Shangguan, Jianxin & Hook, Mikael, 2011. "Forecasting the growth of China’s natural gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1380-1385.
    11. Sarak, H & Satman, A, 2003. "The degree-day method to estimate the residential heating natural gas consumption in Turkey: a case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 929-939.
    12. Wang, Bing & Liang, Xiao-Jie & Zhang, Hao & Wang, Lu & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2014. "Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 701-707.
    13. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2015. "Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-220.
    14. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting the CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2450-2458.
    15. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    16. Clément, Alain & McCullen, Pat & Falcão, António & Fiorentino, Antonio & Gardner, Fred & Hammarlund, Karin & Lemonis, George & Lewis, Tony & Nielsen, Kim & Petroncini, Simona & Pontes, M. -Teresa & Sc, 2002. "Wave energy in Europe: current status and perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 405-431, October.
    17. Ou, Ting-Chia & Hong, Chih-Ming, 2014. "Dynamic operation and control of microgrid hybrid power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 314-323.
    18. Ting-Chia Ou & Kai-Hung Lu & Chiou-Jye Huang, 2017. "Improvement of Transient Stability in a Hybrid Power Multi-System Using a Designed NIDC (Novel Intelligent Damping Controller)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    19. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2013. "Vision 2023: Forecasting Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 393-400.
    20. Kaboli, S. Hr. Aghay & Selvaraj, J. & Rahim, N.A., 2016. "Long-term electric energy consumption forecasting via artificial cooperative search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 857-871.
    21. Bianco, Vincenzo & Manca, Oronzio & Nardini, Sergio & Minea, Alina A., 2010. "Analysis and forecasting of nonresidential electricity consumption in Romania," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3584-3590, November.
    22. Forouzanfar, Mehdi & Doustmohammadi, Ali & Menhaj, M. Bagher & Hasanzadeh, Samira, 2010. "Modeling and estimation of the natural gas consumption for residential and commercial sectors in Iran," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 268-274, January.
    23. Duran Toksari, M., 2007. "Ant colony optimization approach to estimate energy demand of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3984-3990, August.
    24. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2017. "Day-ahead natural gas demand forecasting based on the combination of wavelet transform and ANFIS/genetic algorithm/neural network model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 231-245.
    25. Hong, Chih-Ming & Ou, Ting-Chia & Lu, Kai-Hung, 2013. "Development of intelligent MPPT (maximum power point tracking) control for a grid-connected hybrid power generation system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 270-279.
    26. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, Haiyan & Zhou, Qingping & Wu, Jie & Qin, Shanshan, 2016. "China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1149-1167.
    27. Cheng, Rui & Xu, Zhaofeng & Liu, Pei & Wang, Zhe & Li, Zheng & Jones, Ian, 2015. "A multi-region optimization planning model for China’s power sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 413-426.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Yongli & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Yujing & Yang, Jiale & Ma, Yuze & Yu, Haiyang & Zeng, Ming & Zhang, Fuwei & Zhang, Yanfu, 2019. "Operation optimization of regional integrated energy system based on the modeling of electricity-thermal-natural gas network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Sen, Doruk & Günay, M. Erdem & Tunç, K.M. Murat, 2019. "Forecasting annual natural gas consumption using socio-economic indicators for making future policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1106-1118.
    3. Chai, Jian & Zhang, Xiaokong & Lu, Quanying & Zhang, Xuejun & Wang, Yabo, 2021. "Research on imbalance between supply and demand in China's natural gas market under the double-track price system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    4. Beyca, Omer Faruk & Ervural, Beyzanur Cayir & Tatoglu, Ekrem & Ozuyar, Pinar Gokcin & Zaim, Selim, 2019. "Using machine learning tools for forecasting natural gas consumption in the province of Istanbul," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 937-949.
    5. Wang, Zheng-Xin & Li, Qin & Pei, Ling-Ling, 2018. "A seasonal GM(1,1) model for forecasting the electricity consumption of the primary economic sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 522-534.
    6. Akdeniz, Fikret & Biçil, Metin & Karadede, Yusuf & Özbek, Füreya Elif & Özdemir, Gültekin, 2018. "Application of real valued genetic algorithm on prediction of higher heating values of various lignocellulosic materials using lignin and extractive contents," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 1047-1054.
    7. Al-Falahi, Monaaf D.A. & Jayasinghe, Shantha D.G. & Enshaei, Hossein, 2019. "Hybrid algorithm for optimal operation of hybrid energy systems in electric ferries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    8. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
    9. Palanisamy Manigandan & MD Shabbir Alam & Majed Alharthi & Uzma Khan & Kuppusamy Alagirisamy & Duraisamy Pachiyappan & Abdul Rehman, 2021. "Forecasting Natural Gas Production and Consumption in United States-Evidence from SARIMA and SARIMAX Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-17, September.
    10. Chen, Ying & Koch, Thorsten & Zakiyeva, Nazgul & Zhu, Bangzhu, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the dynamics of the natural gas transmission network in Germany with the demand and supply balance constraint," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    11. Melillo, Andreas & Durrer, Roman & Worlitschek, Jörg & Schütz, Philipp, 2020. "First results of remote building characterisation based on smart meter measurement data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    12. Jun Hao & Xiaolei Sun & Qianqian Feng, 2020. "A Novel Ensemble Approach for the Forecasting of Energy Demand Based on the Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-25, January.
    13. Liu, Benxi & Cheng, Chuntian & Wang, Sen & Liao, Shengli & Chau, Kwok-Wing & Wu, Xinyu & Li, Weidong, 2018. "Parallel chance-constrained dynamic programming for cascade hydropower system operation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 752-767.
    14. Gejirifu De & Wangfeng Gao, 2018. "Forecasting China’s Natural Gas Consumption Based on AdaBoost-Particle Swarm Optimization-Extreme Learning Machine Integrated Learning Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, October.
    15. Hafezi, Reza & Akhavan, AmirNaser & Pakseresht, Saeed & A. Wood, David, 2021. "Global natural gas demand to 2025: A learning scenario development model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    16. Qiao, Weibiao & Liu, Wei & Liu, Enbin, 2021. "A combination model based on wavelet transform for predicting the difference between monthly natural gas production and consumption of U.S," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    17. Wang, Du & Ji, Changwei & Wang, Shuofeng & Yang, Jinxin & Tang, Chuanqi, 2019. "Experimental investigation on near wall ignited lean methane/hydrogen/air flame," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1094-1103.
    18. Guo-Feng Fan & An Wang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2018. "Combining Grey Model and Self-Adapting Intelligent Grey Model with Genetic Algorithm and Annual Share Changes in Natural Gas Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, June.
    19. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "US natural gas consumption prediction using an improved kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    20. Fan, Jingjing & Wang, Jianliang & Liu, Mingming & Sun, Wangmin & Lan, Zhixuan, 2022. "Scenario simulations of China's natural gas consumption under the dual-carbon target," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    21. Li, Yanying & Che, Jinxing & Yang, Youlong, 2018. "Subsampled support vector regression ensemble for short term electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 160-170.
    22. Xiao, Jin & Li, Yuxi & Xie, Ling & Liu, Dunhu & Huang, Jing, 2018. "A hybrid model based on selective ensemble for energy consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 534-546.
    23. Özmen, Ayşe & Yılmaz, Yavuz & Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm, 2018. "Natural gas consumption forecast with MARS and CMARS models for residential users," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 357-381.
    24. Ayşe Özmen, 2023. "Sparse regression modeling for short- and long‐term natural gas demand prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 322(2), pages 921-946, March.
    25. Li, Chuan & Tao, Ying & Ao, Wengang & Yang, Shuai & Bai, Yun, 2018. "Improving forecasting accuracy of daily enterprise electricity consumption using a random forest based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1220-1227.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    2. Yukseltan, Ergun & Yucekaya, Ahmet & Bilge, Ayse Humeyra & Agca Aktunc, Esra, 2021. "Forecasting models for daily natural gas consumption considering periodic variations and demand segregation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    3. Lu, Hongfang & Ma, Xin & Azimi, Mohammadamin, 2020. "US natural gas consumption prediction using an improved kernel-based nonlinear extension of the Arps decline model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    4. Song, Jiancai & Zhang, Liyi & Jiang, Qingling & Ma, Yunpeng & Zhang, Xinxin & Xue, Guixiang & Shen, Xingliang & Wu, Xiangdong, 2022. "Estimate the daily consumption of natural gas in district heating system based on a hybrid seasonal decomposition and temporal convolutional network model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    5. Jean Gaston Tamba & Salom Ndjakomo Essiane & Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Francis Djanna Koffi & Jean Luc Nsouand l & Bozidar Soldo & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Forecasting Natural Gas: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 216-249.
    6. Liu, Guixian & Dong, Xiucheng & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Cong & Li, Jiaman, 2018. "Natural gas consumption of urban households in China and corresponding influencing factors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 17-26.
    7. Sen, Doruk & Günay, M. Erdem & Tunç, K.M. Murat, 2019. "Forecasting annual natural gas consumption using socio-economic indicators for making future policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1106-1118.
    8. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    9. Ergun Yukseltan & Ahmet Yucekaya & Ayse Humeyra Bilge & Esra Agca Aktunc, 2020. "Forecasting Models for Daily Natural Gas Consumption Considering Periodic Variations and Demand Segregation," Papers 2003.13385, arXiv.org.
    10. Beyca, Omer Faruk & Ervural, Beyzanur Cayir & Tatoglu, Ekrem & Ozuyar, Pinar Gokcin & Zaim, Selim, 2019. "Using machine learning tools for forecasting natural gas consumption in the province of Istanbul," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 937-949.
    11. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
    12. Ding, Song, 2018. "A novel self-adapting intelligent grey model for forecasting China's natural-gas demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 393-407.
    13. Reza Hafezi & Amir Naser Akhavan & Mazdak Zamani & Saeed Pakseresht & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2019. "Developing a Data Mining Based Model to Extract Predictor Factors in Energy Systems: Application of Global Natural Gas Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, October.
    14. Guo-Feng Fan & An Wang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2018. "Combining Grey Model and Self-Adapting Intelligent Grey Model with Genetic Algorithm and Annual Share Changes in Natural Gas Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, June.
    15. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2015. "Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-220.
    17. Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Xu, Mingjing & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2019. "A hybrid hourly natural gas demand forecasting method based on the integration of wavelet transform and enhanced Deep-RNN model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 585-597.
    18. Bartłomiej Gaweł & Andrzej Paliński, 2021. "Long-Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting Based on Analog Method and Fuzzy Decision Tree," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-26, August.
    19. Tomasz Cieślik & Piotr Narloch & Adam Szurlej & Krzysztof Kogut, 2022. "Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Natural Gas Consumption by Commercial Consumers in a Selected City in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    20. Li, Jiaman & Dong, Xiucheng & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Kangyin & Liu, Guixian, 2021. "Natural gas trade network of countries and regions along the belt and road: Where to go in the future?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:1269-1284. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.