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Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach

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  • Ibrahim Abada
  • Vincent Briat
  • Olivier Massol

Abstract

Most of the recent numerical market equilibrium models of natural gas markets use imperfect competition assumptions. These models are typically embedded with an oversimplified representation of the demand side, usually a single-variable affine function, that does not capture any dynamic adjustment to past prices. To remedy this, we report an effort to construct an enhanced functional specification using the system dynamics-based model of Moxnes (1987, 1990). Thanks to a vintage representation of capital stock, this putty-clay model captures the effect of both past and current energy prices on fuel consumption. Using a re-calibrated version of this model, we first confirm the pertinence of this modeling framework to represent interfuel substitutions at different fuel prices in the industrial sector. Building on these findings, a dynamic functional specification of the demand function for natural gas is then proposed and calibrated.

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  • Ibrahim Abada & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2011. "Construction of a fuel demand function portraying interfuel substitution, a system dynamics approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-13, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2011-13
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    12. Xie, Chunping & Hawkes, Adam D., 2015. "Estimation of inter-fuel substitution possibilities in China's transport industry using ridge regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 260-267.
    13. Karmellos, M. & Kopidou, D. & Diakoulaki, D., 2016. "A decomposition analysis of the driving factors of CO2 (Carbon dioxide) emissions from the power sector in the European Union countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 680-692.
    14. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1202, Chaire Economie du climat.
    15. Albert Banal-Estañol & Jeremy Eckhause & Olivier Massol, 2015. "Incentives for early adoption of carbon capture technology: further considerations from a European perspective," Working Papers hal-02475485, HAL.
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    19. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2017. "How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 58-66.
    20. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2022. "A review and analysis of renewable energy policies and CO2 emissions of Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    21. Ibrahim Abada & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2013. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1308, Chaire Economie du climat.
    22. Siddiqui, Sauleh & Christensen, Adam, 2016. "Determining energy and climate market policy using multiobjective programs with equilibrium constraints," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 316-325.
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    24. Darda, Md Abud & Guseo, Renato & Mortarino, Cinzia, 2015. "Nonlinear production path and an alternative reserves estimate for South Asian natural gas," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 654-664.
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