How to do structural validity of a system dynamics type simulation model: The case of an energy policy model
System dynamics based simulation models are becoming increasingly popular in the analysis of important energy policy issues including global warming, deregulation, conservation and efficiency. The usefulness of these models is predicated on their ability to link observable patterns of behavior of a system to micro-level structures. This paper argues that the structural validity of the simulation model--right behavior for the right reasons--is a stringent measure to build confidence in a simulation model regardless of how well the model passes behavior validity tests. That leads to an outline of formal structural validity procedures available but less explored in system dynamics modeling 'repertoire'. An illustration of a set of six tests for structural validity of a system dynamics model for energy policy analysis follows. Then using Theil inequality statistics, the behavior validity of the model is also tested. Finally, some conclusions on the increased appeal for simulation models for energy policy analysis and design are presented.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- George B. Kleindorfer & Liam O'Neill & Ram Ganeshan, 1998. "Validation in Simulation: Various Positions in the Philosophy of Science," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1087-1099, August.
- Oliva, Rogelio, 2003. "Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 151(3), pages 552-568, December.
- Richard L. Van Horn, 1971. "Validation of Simulation Results," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(5), pages 247-258, January.
- Hassan Qudrat-Ullah, 2005. "MDESRAP: a model for understanding the dynamics of electricity supply, resources and pollution," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 23(1), pages 1-14.
- Bunn, Derek W. & Larsen, Erik R., 1992. "Sensitivity of reserve margin to factors influencing investment behaviour in the electricity market of England and Wales," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 420-429, May.
- Barlas, Yaman, 1989. "Multiple tests for validation of system dynamics type of simulation models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 59-87, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:5:p:2216-2224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.