A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)
This paper presents a model of the European natural gas supply, GASMOD, which is structured as a two-stage-game of successive natural gas exports to Europe (upstream market) and wholesale trade within Europe (downstream market) and which explicitly includes infrastructure capacities. We compare three possible market scenarios: Cournot competition in both markets, perfect competition in both markets, and perfect competition in the downstream with Cournot competition in the upstream market (EU liberalization). We find that Cournot competition in both markets is the most accurate representation of today's European natural gas market, where suppliers at both stages generate a mark-up at the expense of the final customer (double marginalization). Our results yield a diversified supply portfolio with newly emerging (LNG) exporters gaining market shares. Enforcing competition in the European downstream market would lead to lower prices and higher quantities by avoiding the welfare-reducing effects of double marginalization. Binding infrastructure capacity restrictions strongly influence the results, and we identify bottlenecks mainly for intra-European trade relations whereas transport capacity in the upstream market is globally sufficient in the Cournot scenario.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gabriel, Steven A. & Zhuang, Jifang & Kiet, Supat, 2005. "A large-scale linear complementarity model of the North American natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 639-665, July.
- Mohammed A. Al-Sahlawi, 1989. "The Demand for Natural Gas: A Survey of Price and Income Elasticities," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 77-90.
- Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1979. "The Structure of World Energy Demand," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661772.
- Javier Estrada & Ole Fugleberg, 1989. "Price Elasticities of Natural Gas Demand in France and West Germany," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 77-90.
- Gang Liu, 2004. "Estimating Energy Demand Elasticities for OECD Countries. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Discussion Papers 373, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Marmer, Vadim & Shapiro, Dmitry & MacAvoy, Paul, 2007. "Bottlenecks in regional markets for natural gas transmission services," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 37-45, January.
- Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1998.
"Increased Competition on the Supply Side of the Western European Natural Gas Market,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-18.
- Golombec, R. & Gjelsvik, E. & Knut, E. & Rosendahl, E., 1996. "Increased Competition on the Supply Side on the Western European Natural Gas Merket," Memorandum 11/1996, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Egging, Rudolf G. & Gabriel, Steven A., 2006. "Examining market power in the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2762-2778, November.
- Ferris, Michael C. & Munson, Todd S., 2000. "Complementarity problems in GAMS and the PATH solver," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 165-188, February.
- Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
- Perner, J. & Seeliger, A., 2004. "Prospects of gas supplies to the European market until 2030--results from the simulation model EUGAS," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 291-302, December.
- Anne Neumann & Boriss Siliverstovs & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2006. "Convergence of European spot market prices for natural gas? A real-time analysis of market integration using the Kalman Filter," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 727-732.
- Neumann, Anne & Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2005. "Convergence of European Spot Market Prices for Natural Gas? A Real-Time Analysis of Market Integration using the Kalman Filter," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 05/05, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
- Maroeska G. Boots, Fieke A.M. Rijkers and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2004. "Trading in the Downstream European Gas Market: A Successive Oligopoly Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-102.
- Micola, Augusto Ruperez & Bunn, Derek W., 2007. "Two markets and a weak link," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 79-93, January.
- Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1995. "Effects of Liberalizing the Natural Gas Markets in Western Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 85-112.
- Lise, Wietze & Linderhof, Vincent & Kuik, Onno & Kemfert, Claudia & Ostling, Robert & Heinzow, Thomas, 2006. "A game theoretic model of the Northwestern European electricity market--market power and the environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2123-2136, October. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:766-788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.