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Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model

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  • Lise, Wietze
  • Hobbs, Benjamin F.
  • van Oostvoorn, Frits

Abstract

Growth in gas demand poses a challenge for European energy consumers and other gas-importing countries in terms of an increasing dependency on gas imports and consequently also supply security. This paper focuses on interactions among demand, supply, and investments in natural gas corridors, namely pipeline transport, LNG, and storage facilities, affecting the European natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. A number of policy scenarios, including a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, are formulated to study the impact of demand uncertainty and delays in investment on the gas transport infrastructure required in the long run in Europe. The analyses indicate that substantial investments in gas transport corridors are needed to accommodate imports and seasonal demand variations. Analysis of scenarios of supply interruption, in the form of suddenly reduced import capacity for particular pipeline routes, indicates that portions of Europe could experience price increases of up to 100% in the case of a year-long interruption. To accommodate import needs and to mitigate possible disruptions, pipeline connections running from East to West need to be given special priority.

Suggested Citation

  • Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:6:p:1890-1906
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    Cited by:

    1. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.
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    10. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2013. "Vision 2023: Forecasting Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 393-400.
    11. Egging, Ruud, 2013. "Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems – Applied to a global natural gas market model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 341-353.
    12. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    13. Villada, Juan & Olaya, Yris, 2013. "A simulation approach for analysis of short-term security of natural gas supply in Colombia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 11-26.
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    22. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:466-479 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Baltensperger, Tobias & Füchslin, Rudolf M. & Krütli, Pius & Lygeros, John, 2016. "Multiplicity of equilibria in conjectural variations models of natural gas markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 646-656.
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