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NATGAS: a model of the European natural gas market

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Listed author(s):
  • Gijsbert Zwart

    ()

  • Machiel Mulder

    ()

Abstract

The NATural GAS model is an integrated model of the European wholesale gas market providing long-run projections of supply, transport, storage and consumption patterns in the model region, aggregated in 5-year periods, distinguishing two seasons (winter and summer). Model results include levels of investment in the various branches, output and consumption, depletion of reserves and price levels. The NATGAS model computes long-term effects of policy measures on future gas production and gas prices in Europe. NATGAS is an equilibrium model describing behaviour of gas producers, investors in infrastructure (pipeline, LNG capacity, as well as storage), traders and consumers. NATGAS covers the main European demand regions, including the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. Moreover, it covers the main origins of supply on the European market, such as Russia, Norway, Algeria, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and LNG. In this memorandum, we first discuss the theoretical background as well as the model specifications. Afterwards, we describe the data we used, present some results and assess validity by computing sensitivities and comparing with current developments.

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Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Memorandum with number 144.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
Handle: RePEc:cpb:memodm:144
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Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
  • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
  • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
  • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

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  1. Stern, Jonathan, 2004. "UK gas security: time to get serious," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(17), pages 1967-1979, November.
  2. Machiel Mulder & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Government involvement in liberalised gas markets; a welfare-economic analysis of Dutch gas-depletion policy," CPB Document 110, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Bergman, Lars & Andersson, Bo, 1995. "Market Structure and the Price of Electricity: An ex ante Analysis of the deregulated Swedish Electricity Market," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 47, Stockholm School of Economics.
  4. Borenstein, Severin & Bushnell, James, 1999. "An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3), pages 285-323, September.
  5. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1998. "Increased Competition on the Supply Side of the Western European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-18.
  6. Groot, Fons & Withagen, Cees & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2003. "Strong time-consistency in the cartel-versus-fringe model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 287-306, November.
  7. Bo Andersson & Lars Bergman, 1995. "Market Structure and the Price of Electricity: An Ex Ante Analysis of the Deregulated Swedish Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 97-110.
  8. Maroeska G. Boots, Fieke A.M. Rijkers and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2004. "Trading in the Downstream European Gas Market: A Successive Oligopoly Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-102.
  9. Machiel Mulder & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Market failures and government policies in gas markets," CPB Memorandum 143, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  10. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1995. "Effects of Liberalizing the Natural Gas Markets in Western Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 85-112.
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Cited by:

  1. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
  2. Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
  3. Mark Lijesen & Hein Mannaerts & Machiel Mulder, 2002. "Will California come to Europe? A Numerical Simulation," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 173-188, June.
  4. Rodríguez-Gómez, Nuria & Zaccarelli, Nicola & Bolado-Lavín, Ricardo, 2016. "European ability to cope with a gas crisis. Comparison between 2009 and 2014," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 461-474.
  5. Chi-Kong Chyong, 2015. "Markets and long-term contracts: The case of Russian gas supplies to Europe," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
  7. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
  8. Psarras, John, 2016. "Multicriteria decision support to evaluate potential long-term natural gas supply alternatives: The case of GreeceAuthor-Name: Androulaki, Stella," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 791-810.

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