IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/11986.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Storage and Security of Supply in the Medium Run

Author

Listed:
  • Chaton, Corinne
  • Creti, Anna
  • Villeneuve, Bertrand

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of private storage in a market for a commodity (e.g. natural gas) whose supply is subject to the threat of an irreversible disruption. We focus on the medium term in which seasonality of demand and exhaustibility can be neglected. We characterize the price and inventory dynamics (accumulation, drainage and limit stocks) in a competitive equilibrium with rational expectations. We show the robustness of our results to alternative scenarios in which either a disruption has finite duration or the crisis is foreseen. During the crisis consumers may put pressure on the Government to intervene, but too severe antispeculative measures would inefficiently discourage storage. Practical solutions to this dilemma cause welfare losses that we characterize and quantify.

Suggested Citation

  • Chaton, Corinne & Creti, Anna & Villeneuve, Bertrand, 2008. "Storage and Security of Supply in the Medium Run," MPRA Paper 11986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11986
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11986/1/MPRA_paper_11986.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Weisser, Hellmuth, 2007. "The security of gas supply--a critical issue for Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-5, January.
    2. Arye L. Hillman & Ngo Van Long, 1983. "Pricing and Depletion of an Exhaustible Resource When There is Anticipation of Trade Disruption," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 98(2), pages 215-233.
    3. Albert L. Nichols & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1977. "Stockpiling Strategies and Cartel Prices," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(1), pages 66-96, Spring.
    4. Stern, Jonathan, 2004. "UK gas security: time to get serious," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(17), pages 1967-1979, November.
    5. Bergstrom, Clas & Loury, Glenn C & Persson, Mats, 1985. "Embargo Threats and the Management of Emergency Reserves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 26-42, February.
    6. Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005. "Storage and Commodity Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, December.
    7. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1994. "Protection for Sale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 833-850, September.
    8. Creti, Anna & Villeneuve, Bertrand, 2008. "Equilibrium Storage in a Markov Economy," MPRA Paper 11944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Tolley, George S & Wilman, John D, 1977. "The Foreign Dependence Question," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(2), pages 323-347, April.
    10. James L. Sweeney, 1977. "Economics of Depletable Resources: Market Forces and Intertemporal Bias," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 125-141.
    11. Machiel Mulder & Gijsbert Zwart, 2006. "Market failures and government policies in gas markets," CPB Memorandum 143, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Hallett, A. J. Hughes, 1984. "Optimal stockpiling in a high-risk commodity market the case of copper," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 211-238, November.
    13. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Weiner, Robert J., 1989. "Dynamic policy coordination: Stockpiling for energy security," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 9-22, January.
    14. Brian D. Wright & Jeffrey C. Williams, 1982. "The Roles of Public and Private Storage in Managing Oil Import Disruptions," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(2), pages 341-353, Autumn.
    15. Vincent P. Crawford & Joel Sobel & Ichiro Takahashi, 1984. "Bargaining, Strategic Reserves, and International Trade in Exhaustible Resources," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 66(4), pages 472-480.
    16. William W. Hogan, 1983. "Oil Stockpiling: Help Thy Neighbor," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 49-72.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giulietti, Monica & Grossi, Luigi & Waterson, Michael, 2011. "A Rough Examination of the value of gas storage," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 967, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Creti, Anna & Villeneuve, Bertrand, 2008. "Equilibrium Storage in a Markov Economy," MPRA Paper 11944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Salant, Stephen W., 2015. "What Ails the European Union's Emissions Trading System? Two Diagnoses Calling for Different Treatments," Discussion Papers dp-15-30, Resources For the Future.
    4. Anna Creti & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2013. "Commodity storage with durable shocks : A simple Markovian model," Post-Print hal-01517436, HAL.
    5. Ejarque, João Miguel, 2008. "Evaluating the Economic Cost of Strategic Storage of Natural Gas," Economics Discussion Papers 8922, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    6. Ejarque, João Miguel, 2011. "Evaluating the economic cost of natural gas strategic storage restrictions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 44-55, January.
    7. Mordwa, Maria, 2011. "The obligation of strategic gas storage introduced in Poland as an example of a public service obligation relating to supply security: a question of compliance with European law," MPRA Paper 34891, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Sergey Paltsev & Valerie Karplus & Henry Chen & Ioanna Karkatsouli & John Reilly & Henry Jacoby, 2015. "Regulatory control of vehicle and power plant emissions: how effective and at what cost?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 438-457, July.
    9. Abrell, Jan & Chavaz, Léo & Weigt, Hannes, 2019. "Dealing with Supply Disruptions on the European Natural Gas Market: Infrastructure Investments or Coordinated Policies?," Working papers 2019/11, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    10. Cavaliere, Alberto & Giust, Valentina & Maggi, Mario, 2013. "Efficient mechanisms for access to storage when competition in gas markets is imperfect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 481-490.
    11. Salant, Stephen W., 2016. "What ails the European Union׳s emissions trading system?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 6-19.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5384 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5204 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4808 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Creti, Anna & Villeneuve, Bertrand, 2008. "Equilibrium Storage in a Markov Economy," MPRA Paper 11944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5384 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2280 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Martin C. McGuire, 2010. "Economic Analysis and International Security," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 6(2), pages 313-346, March.
    7. Gérard Gaudet & Pierre Lasserre, 2011. "The Efficient Use Of Multiple Sources Of A Nonrenewable Resource Under Supply Cost Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 245-258, February.
    8. Bahel, Eric, 2011. "Optimal management of strategic reserves of nonrenewable natural resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 267-280, May.
    9. Behrens, Axel, 1990. "Optimal stockpiling policies for resource-dependent economies," Kiel Working Papers 437, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Christophe Gouel, 2013. "Rules versus Discretion in Food Storage Policies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1029-1044.
    11. Christophe Gouel & Sébastien Jean, 2015. "Optimal Food Price Stabilization in a Small Open Developing Country," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 29(1), pages 72-101.
    12. van Bergeijk, Peter A. G. & van Marrewijk, Charles, 1995. "Why do sanctions need time to work? Adjustment, learning and anticipation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 75-86, April.
    13. Chen, Xin & Mu, Hailin & Li, Huanan & Gui, Shusen, 2014. "Using stockpile delegation to improve China׳s strategic oil policy: A multi-dimension stochastic dynamic programming approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 28-42.
    14. Kheiravar, Khaled H, 2019. "Economic and Econometric Analyses of the World Petroleum Industry, Energy Subsidies, and Air Pollution," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3gj151w9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    15. repec:elg:eechap:15325_12 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1983. "Uncertain Lifetimes, Social Security, and Individual Saving," Discussion Papers 581, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    17. Huanan Li & Xin Chen, 2016. "Dynamic game analysis on China’s public and private oil stockpiles," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 715-723, October.
    18. Corinne Chaton & Anna Creti & Bertrand Villeneuve, 2005. "The Economics of Seasonal Gas Storage," Working Papers 2005-52, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    19. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    20. Chaton, Corinne & Creti, Anna & Villeneuve, Bertrand, 2008. "Some economics of seasonal gas storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4235-4246, November.
    21. Gijsbert Zwart & Machiel Mulder, 2006. "NATGAS: a model of the European natural gas market," CPB Memorandum 144, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    22. Murphy, Frederic & Oliveira, Fernando S., 2010. "Developing a market-based approach to managing the US strategic petroleum reserve," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 488-495, October.
    23. Gouel, Christophe, 2013. "Optimal food price stabilisation policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 118-134.
    24. Nkuiya, Bruno, 2015. "Transboundary pollution game with potential shift in damages," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-14.
    25. Scheitrum, Daniel Paul & Carter, Colin A. & Jaffe, Amy Myers, 2017. "Testing substitution between private and public storage in the U.S. oil market: A study on the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 483-493.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Storage; Dynamic models; Gas industry;

    JEL classification:

    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11986. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.