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The effect of economic sanctions on world trade of mineral commodities. A gravity model approach from 2009 to 2020

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  • Caruso, Raul
  • Cipollina, Maria

Abstract

This article employs a gravity model to examine the impact of sanctions on the trade of mineral commodities, classified at a detailed level (using the six-digit code of the Harmonized System — HS, a global classification system for traded goods), from 2009 to 2020. The dataset covers flows from 239 exporter countries to 38 OECD members. The primary findings highlight that: (i) a significant trade disruption is evident, characterized by an immediate 90 percent reduction, with a growing impact observed over time; (ii) sanctions-busting appears effective only in the very short term, albeit with weak supporting evidence; (iii) sender countries experience a decline in trade not only with target countries but also with third countries (negative network effect).

Suggested Citation

  • Caruso, Raul & Cipollina, Maria, 2025. "The effect of economic sanctions on world trade of mineral commodities. A gravity model approach from 2009 to 2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:105:y:2025:i:c:s0301420725001163
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105574
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade sanctions; International trade boycotts; Mineral commodities; Industrial raw materials; Gravity model; Trade disruption; Trade diversion; Sanctions - busting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative

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