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Economic Sanctions and Trade Flows in the Neighborhood

Author

Listed:
  • Vincenzo Bove
  • Jessica Di Salvatore
  • Roberto Nisticò

Abstract

We investigate the effect of economic sanctions on trade flows in countries sharing a border with sanctioned states. According to trade models, sanctions are expected to reduce trade flows, as they disrupt established trading routes and economic relationships with suppliers and customers. However, there may also be instances in which countries circumvent trade restrictions by clandestinely exchanging goods with sanctioned countries across the border and trading on their behalf, which leads to an increase in imports and/or exports. To shed light on this issue, we employ a combination of large-N panel data analysis and comparative case studies using the synthetic control method. We find that, in the aggregate, neighboring countries experience economic costs as sanctions disrupt trade. Yet case studies uncover heterogeneity in countries’ responses, with some exhibiting an increase in trade flows. Possible explanations for these different outcomes include opportunistic behavior and increased costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Bove & Jessica Di Salvatore & Roberto Nisticò, 2023. "Economic Sanctions and Trade Flows in the Neighborhood," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 671-697.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlawec:doi:10.1086/725678
    DOI: 10.1086/725678
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    Cited by:

    1. Adelaide Baronchelli & Raul Caruso, 2023. "Italian small arms exports: between incentives and international sanctions," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(3), pages 1075-1106, October.
    2. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Do China and Russia undermine Western sanctions? Evidence from DiD and event study estimation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 132-160, February.
    3. Nicolas Gavoille, 2025. "A short drop or a sudden stop? Sanctions, trade shocks, and firms' adjustment margins," Working Papers 2025/03, Latvijas Banka.
    4. Daria Suprunenko, 2024. "Not-so-innocent bystanders: Trade with neighbors of sanctioned countries," IEER Working Papers 123, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    5. Kelishomi, Ali Moghaddasi & Nisticò, Roberto, 2024. "Economic sanctions and informal employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Caruso, Raul & Cipollina, Maria, 2025. "The effect of economic sanctions on world trade of mineral commodities. A gravity model approach from 2009 to 2020," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    7. Fatemeh Rahimzadeh & Hamed Pirpour & Bahman P. Ebrahimi, 2022. "The impact of economic sanctions on the efficiency of bilateral energy exports: the case of Iran," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-18, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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