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The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study

Author

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  • Gutmann, Jerg
  • Neuenkirch, Matthias
  • Neumeier, Florian

Abstract

Although international sanctions are a widely used instrument of coercion, their economic effects are still not well-understood. This study uses a novel dataset and an event study approach to evaluate the economic consequences of international sanctions, thereby visualizing pre-treatment and treatment dynamics in countries subject to sanctions. Our analysis focuses on the effects of sanctions on GDP growth as well as on various transmission channels through which sanctions suppress economic activity. We document a significant negative effect of sanctions on the growth rate of GDP and its components (consumption and investment) as well as on trade and foreign direct investment. Given that sanctions exert their adverse effect over the first years of a sanction episode and that sanctioned countries fail to recover during or immediately after the episode, we demonstrate the usefulness of sanctions as a political instrument of coercion. Long-lasting sanctions regimes, however, may not provide the political incentives needed to force additional concessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:51:y:2023:i:4:p:1214-1231
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jce.2023.05.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Francisco Rodr'iguez, 2022. "Sanctions and Imports of Essential Goods: A Closer Look at the Equipo Anova (2021) Results," Papers 2212.09904, arXiv.org.
    2. Thieß Petersen & Thomas Schwab, 2022. "Handelssanktionen — Wirkungen und Nebenwirkungen [Trade Sanctions — Effects and Side Effects]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 354-360, May.
    3. Rodriguez, Francisco, 2022. "Sanctions and Imports of Essential Goods; A Closer Look at the Equipo Anova (2021) Results," MPRA Paper 115714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Buklemishev, O., 2022. "Financial sanctions and future of globalization," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 207-212.
    5. Rodriguez, Francisco, 2023. "Estimating causal effects of sanctions impacts: what role for country-level studies?," MPRA Paper 117423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Francisco Rodr'iguez, 2023. "Estimating causal effects of sanctions impacts: what role for country-level studies?," Papers 2305.14605, arXiv.org.
    7. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2023. "The Price of War: Macroeconomic and Cross-Sectional Effects of Sanctions on Russia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp756, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Event study; Foreign influence; International sanctions; Transmission channels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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