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Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian economy and economies of the euro area

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  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

    (DIW Berlin, Berlin, Germany and Higher School of Economics, National Research University, St. Petersburg, Russia)

  • Aleksei Netsunajev

    (Elisa Eesti AS and Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia)

Abstract

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led Western countries and Russia to impose economic sanctions on each other, including the euro zone members. The paper investigates the impact of the sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The effects of sanctions are analyzed with a structural vector autoregression. To pin down the effect we are interested in, we include an index that measures the intensity of the sanctions in the model. The sanction shock is identified and separated from the oil price shock by narrative sign restrictions. We find weak evidence that Russian and euro area GDPs declined as a result of the sanctions. The effects of the sanctions are also small for the real effective exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2019. "Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian economy and economies of the euro area," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 39-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:39-51
    DOI: 10.1080/1406099X.2018.1547566
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    Cited by:

    1. Bali, Morad & Rapelanoro, Nady, 2021. "How to simulate international economic sanctions: A multipurpose index modelling illustrated with EU sanctions against Russia," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 25-39.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Korhonen, I., 2019. "Sanctions and Counter-Sanctions - What Are their Economic Effects in Russia and Elsewhere?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 184-190.
    4. Pavel Dovbnya, 2020. "Announcements of Sanctions and the Russian Equity Market: An Event Study Approach," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 79(1), pages 74-92, March.
    5. Prilepskiy, I., 2019. "Financial Sanctions: Impact on Capital flows and GDP Growth in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 163-172.
    6. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2021. ""Sorry, You're Blocked." Economic Effects of Financial Sanctions on the Russian Economy," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp704, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    7. Iikka Korhonen, 2020. "Economic Sanctions on Russia and Their Effects," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(04), pages 19-22, January.
    8. Jakub Horak, 2021. "Sanctions as a Catalyst for Russia’s and China’s Balance of Trade: Business Opportunity," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, January.
    9. Simola, Heli, 2023. "What the literature says about the effects of sanctions on Russia," BOFIT Policy Briefs 8/2023, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. Morad Bali, 2020. "Methodological Limitations of the Literature in the Study of Economic Sanctions, the Ukrainian Crisis Case," Post-Print hal-02472943, HAL.
    11. Sziklai, Balázs R. & Kóczy, László Á. & Csercsik, Dávid, 2020. "The impact of Nord Stream 2 on the European gas market bargaining positions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    12. Anna Miromanova, 2023. "The effectiveness of embargoes: Evidence from Russia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 906-940, April.
    13. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    14. Bijoy Chandra Das & Fakhrul Hasan & Soma Rani Sutradhar & Sujana Shafique, 2023. "Ukraine–Russia Conflict and Stock Markets Reactions in Europe," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 24(3), pages 395-407, September.
    15. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Do, Manh Hung, 2021. "Impact of economic sanctions and counter-sanctions on the Russian Federation’s trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 267-278.
    17. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2020. "The Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Financial Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    18. Mohammed Shakib, 2023. "Innovation-Export Diversification Nexus in Russian Regions: Does Trade Globalization, Business Potential and Geopolitics Matter?," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 22(4), pages 932-974.
    19. Anna Miromanova, 2023. "Quantifying the trade‐reducing effect of embargoes: Firm‐level evidence from Russia," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(3), pages 1121-1160, August.
    20. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2023. "The Price of War: Macroeconomic and Cross-Sectional Effects of Sanctions on Russia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp756, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    21. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2022. "Regional Economic and Financial Interconnectedness and the Impact of Sanctions: The Case of the Commonwealth of Independent States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, November.
    22. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana & Rybiński, Krzysztof, 2022. "Economic uncertainty and natural language processing; The case of Russia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 546-562.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political conflict; sanctions; economic growth; Russia; euro area; structural vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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