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The Pro-Russian Conflict and its Impact on Stock Returns in Russia and the Ukraine

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  • Manuel Hoffmann
  • Matthias Neuenkirch

Abstract

We analyze the impact of the pro-Russian conflict on stock returns in Russia and the Ukraine during the period November 21, 2013 to September 29, 2014. We utilize a newly created indicator for the degree of (de-)escalation based on an Internet search for conflict-related news. We find that intensification of the conflict reduces Russian and Ukrainian stock returns. The (de-)escalation of the pro-Russian conflict in the Ukraine accounts for a total variation of 6.5 (8.7) percentage points in the Russian (Ukrainian) stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel Hoffmann & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2015. "The Pro-Russian Conflict and its Impact on Stock Returns in Russia and the Ukraine," Research Papers in Economics 2015-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:trr:wpaper:201501
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    Cited by:

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    2. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Costola, Michele & Lorusso, Marco, 2022. "Spillovers among energy commodities and the Russian stock market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    4. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2016. "Between the Hammer and the Anvil: The Impact of Economic Sanctions and Oil Prices on Russia’s Ruble," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 295-308.
    5. Galkin, Andrei S. & Gurov, Ilya N. & Studnikov, Sergey S., 2020. "Accounting mechanism for information signals about the imposition of sanctions in valuation of a company," Economic Consultant, Roman I. Ostapenko, vol. 29(1), pages 57-64.
    6. Klomp, Jeroen, 2020. "The impact of Russian sanctions on the return of agricultural commodity futures in the EU," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    7. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Sanctions and the Russian stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 150-162.
    8. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    9. Zornitsa Kutlina-Dimitrova, 2017. "The economic impact of the Russian import ban: a CGE analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 537-552, October.
    10. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Aleksei Netsunajev, 2016. "Crimea and Punishment: The Impact of Sanctions on Russian and European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1569, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    12. Mohamad, Azhar, 2022. "Safe flight to which haven when Russia invades Ukraine? A 48-hour story," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict-Related News; Pro-Russian Conflict; Russia; Sanctions; Stock Returns; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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