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The Weekend Effect: An Exploitable Anomaly in the Ukrainian Stock Market?

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis Gil-Alana
  • Alex Plastun

Abstract

This paper provides some new empirical evidence on the weekend effect (one of the best known anomalies in financial markets) in Ukrainian futures prices. The analysis uses various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student's t-test, dummy variables, and fractional integration) to test for the presence of this anomaly, and then a trading simulation approach to establish whether it can be exploited to make extra profits. The statistical evidence points to abnormal positive returns on Fridays, and a trading strategy based on this anomaly is shown to generate annual profits of up to 25%. The implication is that the Ukrainian stock market is inefficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2015. "The Weekend Effect: An Exploitable Anomaly in the Ukrainian Stock Market?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1458, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Keim, Donald B & Stambaugh, Robert F, 1984. "A Further Investigation of the Weekend Effect in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 819-835, July.
    2. Honghui Chen & Vijay Singal, 2003. "Role of Speculative Short Sales in Price Formation: The Case of the Weekend Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 685-705, April.
    3. Francois-Éric Racicot, 2011. "Low-frequency components and the Weekend effect revisited: Evidence from Spectral Analysis," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp052011, Département des sciences administratives, UQO.
    4. Schwert, G. William, 2003. "Anomalies and market efficiency," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 939-974, Elsevier.
    5. Honghui Chen & Vijay Singal, 2003. "Role of Speculative Short Sales in Price Formation: The Case of the Weekend Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 685-706, April.
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun & Inna Makarenko, 2014. "The Weekend Effect: A Trading Robot and Fractional Integration Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1386, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Kazemi, Hossein S. & Zhai, Weili & He, Jibao & Cai, Jinghan, 2013. "Stock Market Volatility, Speculative Short Sellers and Weekend Effect: International Evidence," MPRA Paper 54185, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jul 2013.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    9. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-596, October.
    10. Peter Fortune, 1999. "Are stock returns different over weekends? a jump diffusion analysis of the \"weekend effect\"," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-19.
    11. Rogalski, Richard J, 1984. "New Findings Regarding Day-of-the-Week Returns over Trading and Non-trading Periods: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1603-1614, December.
    12. Agrawal, Anup & Tandon, Kishore, 1994. "Anomalies or illusions? Evidence from stock markets in eighteen countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-106, February.
    13. Peter Fortune, 1998. "Weekends can be rough: revisiting the weekend effect in stock prices," Working Papers 98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2016. "Calendar Anomalies in the Ukrainian Stock Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1573, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Manuel Hoffmann & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The pro-Russian conflict and its impact on stock returns in Russia and the Ukraine," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 61-73, January.
    3. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Plastun, Alex, 2019. "The day of the week effect in the cryptocurrency market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    4. Kostyantyn MALYSHENKO & Vadim MALYSHENKO & Elena Yu. PONOMAREVA & Marina ANASHKINA, 2019. "Analysis of the stock market anomalies in the context of changing the information paradigm," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 239-270, June.
    5. Plastun, Alex & Bouri, Elie & Havrylina, Ahniia & Ji, Qiang, 2022. "Calendar anomalies in passion investments: Price patterns and profit opportunities," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Efficient market hypothesis; weekend effect; trading strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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