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Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian and European economies

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  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
  • Netsunajev, Aleksei

Abstract

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine that started in March 2014 led to bilateral economic sanctions being imposed on each other by Russia and Western countries, including the members of the euro area. The paper investigates the impact of the sanctions on the real side of the economies of Russia and the euro area. The effects of sanctions are analysed with a structural vector autoregression. To pin down the effect we are interested in, we include in the model an index that measures the intensity of the sanctions. The sanction shock is identified and separated from the oil price shock by narrative sign restrictions. We find a very high probability that Russian GDP declined as a result of the sanctions. In contrast to that, the effects of the sanctions on the euro area are limited to real effective exchange rate adjustments

Suggested Citation

  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Netsunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Crimea and punishment: the impact of sanctions on Russian and European economies," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2017-5, Bank of Estonia, revised 11 Sep 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2017-5
    DOI: 10.23656/25045520/52017/0143
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    2. Ankudinov, Andrei & Ibragimov, Rustam & Lebedev, Oleg, 2017. "Sanctions and the Russian stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 150-162.
    3. Massimiliano Di Pace, 2017. "Eu and Usa sanctions and their impact on Russia: a logical-qualitative assessment," Argomenti, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics, vol. 7(7), pages 1-16, May-Augus.
    4. Shida, Yoshisada, 2019. "Russian Business under Economic Sanctions: Is There Regional Heterogeneity?," MPRA Paper 93817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jan Wedemeier & Lukas Wolf, 2022. "Navigating Rough Waters: Global Shipping and Challenges for the North Range Ports," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 192-198, May.
    6. Prilepskiy, I., 2019. "Financial Sanctions: Impact on Capital flows and GDP Growth in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 43(3), pages 163-172.
    7. Nady Rapelanoro & Bali Morad, 2020. "International Economic Sanctions: Multipurpose Index Modelling in the Ukrainian Crisis Case," Working Papers hal-04159719, HAL.
    8. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? : The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Morad Bali, 2018. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Russia and its Six Greatest European Trade Partners," Post-Print halshs-01918521, HAL.
    10. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2022. "Regional Economic and Financial Interconnectedness and the Impact of Sanctions: The Case of the Commonwealth of Independent States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, November.
    11. Pestova, Anna & Mamonov, Mikhail, 2019. "Should we care? The economic effects of financial sanctions on the Russian economy," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. Bayramov, Vugar & Rustamli, Nabi & Abbas, Gulnara, 2020. "Collateral damage: The Western sanctions on Russia and the evaluation of implications for Russia’s post-communist neighbourhood," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 92-109.
    13. Shida, Yoshisada, 2019. "Russian Business under Economic Sanctions: Is There Regional Heterogeneity?," MPRA Paper 93817, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Morad Bali, 2020. "Methodological Limitations of the Literature in the Study of Economic Sanctions, the Ukrainian Crisis Case," Post-Print hal-02472943, HAL.

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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