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Safe flight to which haven when Russia invades Ukraine? A 48-hour story

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  • Mohamad, Azhar

Abstract

We examine the flight-to-safety phenomenon from ruble (risky asset) to other safe-haven assets at the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. We find evidence of flight-to-safe-haven occurrences from the ruble to the USD, yen, silver, Brent, WTI and natural gas as indicated by negative dynamic conditional correlations between these assets. Price discovery surrounding the invasion is found to be dominated by Brent and bitcoin. Further, we observe the presence of herding behaviours between energy commodities (Brent, WTI, gasoline and natural gas) and cryptocurrencies (bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin).

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  • Mohamad, Azhar, 2022. "Safe flight to which haven when Russia invades Ukraine? A 48-hour story," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:216:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522001598
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110558
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kashif Zaheer & Faheem Aslam & Yasir Tariq Mohmand & Paulo Ferreira, 2024. "On the Dynamic Changes in the Global Stock Markets’ Network during the Russia–Ukraine War," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-27, February.
    3. Piotr Fiszeder & Marta Ma³ecka, 2022. "Forecasting volatility during the outbreak of Russian invasion of Ukraine: application to commodities, stock indices, currencies, and cryptocurrencies," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(4), pages 939-967, December.
    4. Lien, Donald, 2022. "Comparisons of Alternative Information Share Measures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    5. Yadav, Miklesh Prasad & Rao, Amar & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul & Tabassum, Sabia & Lucey, Brian, 2023. "The domino effect: Analyzing the impact of Silicon Valley Bank's fall on top equity indices around the world," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    6. Umar, Muhammad & Riaz, Yasir & Yousaf, Imran, 2022. "Impact of Russian-Ukraine war on clean energy, conventional energy, and metal markets: Evidence from event study approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Oosterlinck, Kim & Reyns, Ariane & Szafarz, Ariane, 2023. "Gold, bitcoin, and portfolio diversification: Lessons from the Ukrainian war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Kamal, Md Rajib & Wahlstrøm, Ranik Raaen, 2023. "Cryptocurrencies and the threat versus the act event of geopolitical risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Nerlinger, Martin & Utz, Sebastian, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy firms: A capital market perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Azmi, Wajahat & Anwer, Zaheer & Azmi, Shujaat Naeem & Nobanee, Haitham, 2023. "How did major global asset classes respond to Silicon Valley Bank failure?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    11. Huang, Jie & Cao, Yu & Zhong, Pengshu, 2022. "Searching for a safe haven to crude oil: Green bond or precious metals?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    12. Md. Kausar Alam & Mosab I. Tabash & Mabruk Billah & Sanjeev Kumar & Suhaib Anagreh, 2022. "The Impacts of the Russia–Ukraine Invasion on Global Markets and Commodities: A Dynamic Connectedness among G7 and BRIC Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flight-to-safety; Safe haven; Ruble; Bitcoin; Price discovery; Herding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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