IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Russian equity market linkages before and after the 1998 crisis: Evidence from stochastic and regime-switching cointegration tests

  • Lucey, Brian M.
  • Voronkova, Svitlana

This paper examines the relationships between Russian and other equity markets over the period of 1995-2004. To account for potential instability in the market relationships we apply a number of cointegration approaches: Gregory-Hansen [1996. Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics 70, 99-126] test, which allows for a structural break in the relationships, a stochastic cointegration framework by McCabe [2003. Testing for Stochastic Cointegration and Evidence for Present Value Models. Working Paper], the non-parametric test by Breitung [2002. Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration. Journal of Econometrics 108(2), 343-363] and a regime-switching cointegration model in the spirit of Ho [1999. Financial liberalization and international capital mobility of Taiwan: a regime-switching approach. Asian Economic Journal 13(4), 407-417]. The tests point to a significant agreement that the Russian equity market remained isolated from the influence by international markets in the long run and that while a structural break might have occurred in August 1998 this did not alter the nature of long-run relationships.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 1303-1324

in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:8:p:1303-1324
Contact details of provider: Web page:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bernd Hayo & Ali M. Kutan, 2004. "The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and Global Market Developments on Russian Financial Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-656, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Fedorov, Pavel & Sarkissian, Sergei, 2000. "Cross-sectional variations in the degree of global integration: the case of Russian equities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 131-150, June.
  3. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  4. Rodrigo O. Valdés & Leonardo Hernández, 2001. "What Drives Contagion: Trade Neighborhood, or Financial Links?," IMF Working Papers 01/29, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Bierens, H.J., 1995. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Discussion Paper 1995-123, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  6. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian default and the contagion to Brazil," Textos para discussão 420, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  7. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Jang, Hoyoon & Sul, Wonsik, 2002. "The Asian financial crisis and the co-movement of Asian stock markets," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 94-104.
  9. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 1998. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 6508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  11. Ray Yeu-Tien Chou & Victor Ng & Lynn K. Pi, 1994. "Cointegration of International Stock Market Indices," IMF Working Papers 94/94, International Monetary Fund.
  12. R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
  13. Brendan McCabe & Stephen Leybourne & David Harris, 2003. "Testing for Stochastic Cointegration and Evidence for Present Value Models," Econometrics 0311009, EconWPA.
  14. Harris, David & McCabe, Brendan & Leybourne, Stephen, 2002. "Stochastic cointegration: estimation and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 363-384, December.
  15. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-68, March-Apr.
  16. Francisco J. Climent & Vicente Meneu, 2001. "Has 1997 Asian Crisis increased Information Flows between International Markets?," Working Papers 01-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  17. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  19. Charemza, Wojciech W. & Majerowska, Ewa, 2000. "Regulation of the Warsaw Stock Exchange: The portfolio allocation problem," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 555-576, April.
  20. Ogaki, M. & Park, Y.Y., 1989. "A Cointegration Approach To Estimating Preference Parameters," RCER Working Papers 209, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  21. Gilmore, Claire G. & McManus, Ginette M. & Tezel, Ahmet, 2005. "Portfolio allocations and the emerging equity markets of Central Europe," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 287-300, July.
  22. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
  24. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  25. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-57, March.
  26. Voronkova, Svitlana, 2004. "Equity market integration in Central European emerging markets: A cointegration analysis with shifting regimes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 633-647.
  27. Colm Kearney, 1998. "The Causes Of Volatility In A Small, Internationally Integrated Stock Market: Ireland, July 1975–June 1994," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 85-104, 03.
  28. Gilmore, Claire G. & McManus, Ginette M., 2002. "International portfolio diversification: US and Central European equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 69-83, March.
  29. Claire G.Gilmore & Brian Lucey & Ginette M.McManus, 2005. "The Dynamics of Central European Equity Market Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp069, IIIS.
  30. Breitung, Jorg, 2002. "Nonparametric tests for unit roots and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 343-363, June.
  31. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
  32. Scheicher, Martin, 2001. "The Comovements of Stock Markets in Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 27-39, January.
  33. Ratanapakorn, Orawan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Interrelationships among regional stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 91-108.
  34. Hall, Stephen & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Switching error-correction models of house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-527, October.
  35. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M & Tremayne, A R, 1996. "Can Economic Time Series Be Differenced to Stationarity?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 435-46, October.
  36. Davies, Andrew, 2006. "Testing for international equity market integration using regime switching cointegration techniques," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 305-321.
  37. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 3790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Chan Leong, Su & Felmingham, Bruce, 2003. "The interdependence of share markets in the developed economies of East Asia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 219-237, April.
  39. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  40. Panton, Don B. & Lessig, V. Parker & Joy, O. Maurice, 1976. "Comovement of International Equity Markets: A Taxonomic Approach," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 415-432, September.
  41. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  42. Thierry D. Buchs, 1999. "Financial crisis in the Russian Federation: Are the Russians learning to tango?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 7(3), pages 687-715, November.
  43. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
  44. Lieven Baele, 2004. "Measuring European Financial Integration," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 509-530, Winter.
  45. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1992. "Recursive Estimation in Cointegrated VAR-Models," Discussion Papers 92-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  46. Mateus, Tiago, 2004. "The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-266, June.
  47. McCabe, Brendan & Leybourne, Stephen & Harris, David, 2006. "A Residual-Based Test For Stochastic Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(03), pages 429-456, June.
  48. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  49. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2002. "A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 213-221, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:27:y:2008:i:8:p:1303-1324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.