Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war

This article endeavors to reveal the asymmetric effects of the Ukraine-Russia War (URW) on various markets, including energy, metals, and agriculture. To do so, the study deploys the cross-quantilogram technique while utilizing the daily data from February 22, 2022, to October 21, 2022. The results for metal commodities determine that, owing to the war, the aluminum, copper, and gold markets have to face significant losses across the various quantiles, except for silver, which demonstrates a mixed response. Meanwhile, the case of energy commodities discloses that war markedly deteriorates the crude and Brent oil markets throughout the different quantiles. However, the gas market gains significant benefits during the URW. In the case of agricultural markets, all the commodities are crippled with significant losses throughout the entire quantile spectrum due to the war. In addition, the novel rolling window multiple correlation (RWMC) technique supports the main findings by affirming the significant effects of URW across the various time horizons. The findings of this study may assist policymakers in reducing geopolitical risks through attempts to end war and suggest the diversification of energy and agricultural commodities to reduce the reliance on specific countries for trading.