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The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities

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  • Adam Rose
  • Zhenhua Chen
  • Dan Wei

Abstract

Using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium model, we analyze the economic impacts of grain export disruptions caused by the Russia–Ukraine War during the first year of hostilities. The simulation results indicate that these disruptions not only affect Ukraine and Russia but also generate significant economic impacts across other world regions. Ukraine is projected to experience the largest impact on its own economy, with a real GDP loss of $859 million. In contrast, Russia's GDP is projected to decline by only $3.8 million, primarily due to its much lower dependence on grain exports and to favorable terms of trade effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Rose & Zhenhua Chen & Dan Wei, 2023. "The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 645-665, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:apecpp:v:45:y:2023:i:2:p:645-665
    DOI: 10.1002/aepp.13351
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. James A. Giesecke & Nhi Hoang Tran & Erwin L. Corong & Steven Jaffee, 2013. "Rice Land Designation Policy in Vietnam and the Implications of Policy Reform for Food Security and Economic Welfare," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 1202-1218, September.
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    7. Zhenhua Chen & Xinmeng Li, 2021. "Economic impact of transportation infrastructure investment under the Belt and Road Initiative," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 131-159, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

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