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Using Remotely Sensed Data to Assess War-Induced Damage to Agricultural Cultivation : Evidence from Ukraine

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  • Deininger, Klaus W.
  • Ali, Daniel Ayalew
  • Nataliia, Kussul
  • Lemoine, Guido
  • Shelestov, Andrii
  • Shumilo, Leonid

Abstract

This paper explores whether satellite imagery can be used to derive a measure to estimate conflict-induced damage to agricultural production and compare the results to those obtained using media-based conflict indicators, which are widely used in the literature. The paper combines area for summer and winter crops from annual crop maps for 2019–24 with measures of conflict-related damage to agricultural land based on optical and thermal satellite sensors. These data are used to estimate a difference-in-differences model for close to 10,000 Ukrainian village councils. The results point to large and persistent negative effects that spill over to conflict-unaffected village councils. The predicted impact is three times larger, with a distinctly different distribution across key domains (for example, territory controlled by Ukraine and the Russian Federation) using the preferred image-based indicator as compared to a media-based indicator. Satellite imagery thus allows defining conflict incidence in ways that may be relevant to agricultural production and that may have implications for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Deininger, Klaus W. & Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Nataliia, Kussul & Lemoine, Guido & Shelestov, Andrii & Shumilo, Leonid, 2025. "Using Remotely Sensed Data to Assess War-Induced Damage to Agricultural Cultivation : Evidence from Ukraine," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11221, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11221
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