IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iatrcp/344185.html

Agricultural and Economywide Effects of the War in Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Countryman, Amanda M.
  • Litvinov, Valentyn
  • Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan
  • Bogonos, Mariia
  • Nivievskyi, Oleg

Abstract

The war in Ukraine caused export disruptions that jeopardize the availability and affordability of agricultural and food products around the world. This research employs a computable general equilibrium modeling framework to understand the global economic effects of warinduced agricultural export declines under varying success of alternate transport from Ukraine given inability to export through the Black Sea. Results show net global welfare effects ranging from more than $5 billion to nearly $20 billion depending on the success of transport through European Solidarity Lanes.

Suggested Citation

  • Countryman, Amanda M. & Litvinov, Valentyn & Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan & Bogonos, Mariia & Nivievskyi, Oleg, 2024. "Agricultural and Economywide Effects of the War in Ukraine," Commissioned Papers 344185, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iatrcp:344185
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.344185
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/344185/files/Amanda%20M.%20Countryman%2C%20Valentyn%20Litvinov%2C%20Ivan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.344185?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nerlinger, Martin & Utz, Sebastian, 2022. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy firms: A capital market perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    3. Noah S. Diffenbaugh & Thomas W. Hertel & Martin Scherer & Monika Verma, 2012. "Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 514-518, July.
    4. Md. Kausar Alam & Mosab I. Tabash & Mabruk Billah & Sanjeev Kumar & Suhaib Anagreh, 2022. "The Impacts of the Russia–Ukraine Invasion on Global Markets and Commodities: A Dynamic Connectedness among G7 and BRIC Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Moritz Laber & Peter Klimek & Martin Bruckner & Liuhuaying Yang & Stefan Thurner, 2022. "Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability," Papers 2210.01846, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    6. He, Xi & Carriquiry, Miguel & Elobeid, Amani & Hayes, Dermot & Zhang, Wendong, 2023. "Impacts of the Russian-Ukraine Conflict on Global Agriculture Commodity Prices, Trade, and Cropland Reallocation," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2).
    7. Angel Aguiar & Maksym Chepeliev & Erwin Corong & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2022. "The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base: Version 11," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 7(2), pages 1-37, December.
    8. Glauber, Joseph W., 2023. "Assessing tight global wheat stocks and their role in price volatility," IFPRI book chapters, in: The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global food security, chapter 10, pages 52-56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    9. Thomas Glauben & Miranda Svanidze & Linde Götz & Sören Prehn & Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani & Ivan Đurić & Lena Kuhn, 2022. "The War in Ukraine, Agricultural Trade and Risks to Global Food Security," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(3), pages 157-163, May.
    10. Ihle, Rico & Bar-Nahum, Ziv & Nivievskyi, Oleg & Rubin, Ofir D., 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the synchronisation of global commodity prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(04), January.
    11. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2023. "How does the Russian-Ukrainian war change connectedness and hedging opportunities? Comparison between dirty and clean energy markets versus global stock indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    12. repec:aen:journl:2010v31-01-a04 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bougias, Alexandros & Episcopos, Athanasios & Leledakis, George N., 2022. "Valuation of European firms during the Russia–Ukraine war," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    14. Ajeigbe Kola Benson, 2023. "Does the Russia-Ukraine war affects trade relations and foreign Direct investment flows from Europe into Asia and Africa?," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 12(2), pages 287-300, March.
    15. Pierre Boulanger & Hasan Dudu & Emanuele Ferrari & George Philippidis, 2016. "Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri-food Import Ban," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 272-291, June.
    16. Adam Rose & Zhenhua Chen & Dan Wei, 2023. "The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 645-665, June.
    17. Mamun, Abdullah & Glauber, Joseph W. & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2023. "How the war in Ukraine threatens Bangladesh’s food security," IFPRI book chapters, in: The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global food security, chapter 34, pages 175-180, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    18. Chowdhury, Tahreen Tahrima & Dorosh, Paul A. & Islam, Rizwana & Pradesha, Angga, 2023. "Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine War price shocks on the Bangladesh economy: A general equilibrium analysis," IFPRI discussion papers 2182, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    20. Fan Feng & Ningyuan Jia & Faqin Lin, 2023. "Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 15(2), pages 241-258, January.
    21. Elleby, Christian & Dominguez, Ignacio Pérez & Genovese, Giampiero & Thompson, Wyatt & Adenauer, Marcel & Gay, Hubertus, 2023. "A Perfect or Persistent Storm for Global Agricultural Markets: High Energy Prices and the Russia-Ukraine War," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2), August.
    22. Smith, Aaron, 2023. "How Did Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Affect Global Food Supplies?," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2).
    23. Breisinger, Clemens & Diao, Xinshen & Dorosh, Paul A. & Mbuthia, Juneweenex & Omune, Lensa & Oseko, Edwin Ombui & Pradesha, Angga & Thurlow, James, 2023. "Rising commodities prices driven by the Russia-Ukraine crisis threaten to undermine Kenya’s economy, increase poverty," IFPRI book chapters, in: The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global food security, chapter 33, pages 170-174, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amanda M. Countryman & Valentyn Litvinov & Ivan Kolodiazhnyi & Mariia Bogonos & Oleg Nivievskyi, 2025. "Global economic effects of war‐induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 624-665, May.
    2. Chishti, Muhammad Zubair & Khalid, Ali Awais & Sana, Moniba, 2023. "Conflict vs sustainability of global energy, agricultural and metal markets: A lesson from Ukraine-Russia war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Sinha, Avik & Murshed, Muntasir, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict sentiments and energy market returns in G7 countries: Discovering the unexplored dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Ahn, Soojung & Kim, Dongin & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "Global Grain Trade Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War," 2023 Annual Meeting, July 23-25, Washington D.C. 335482, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Erik Braun & Emese Braun & András Gyimesi & Zita Iloskics & Tamás Sebestyén, 2023. "Exposure to trade disruptions in case of the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A product network approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(10), pages 2950-2982, October.
    6. Simone Boccaletti & Paolo Maranzano & Caterina Morelli & Elisa Ossola, 2024. "ESG Performance and Stock Market Responses to Geopolitical Turmoil: evidence from the Russia-Ukraine War," Working Papers 544, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    7. Jiang, Wei & Chen, Yunfei, 2024. "Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on the time-frequency and quantile connectedness between energy, metal and agricultural markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Deininger, Klaus & Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Fang, Ming, 2025. "Impact of the Russian invasion on Ukrainian small and medium farmers’ productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Ahmed, Shamima & Assaf, Rima & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Tabassum, Fariha, 2023. "Is geopolitical risk interconnected? Evidence from Russian-Ukraine crisis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    10. Balash, Vladimir & Faizliev, Alexey, 2024. "Volatility spillovers across Russian oil and gas sector. Evidence of the impact of global markets and extraordinary events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Wu, Feng-lin & Zhan, Xu-dong & Zhou, Jia-qi & Wang, Ming-hui, 2023. "Stock market volatility and Russia–Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    12. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Lucey, Brian M. & Kumar, Satish, 2023. "Border disputes, conflicts, war, and financial markets research: A systematic review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Farrukh Nawaz & Mrestyal Khan & Umar Kayani & Indry Aristianto Pradipta & Aulia Luqman Aziz, 2024. "Impact of Volatility Spillovers upon Electric Utilities during the Russia-Ukraine Conflict," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, vol. 14(6), pages 597-604, November.
    15. Patel, Ritesh & Kumar, Sanjeev & Bouri, Elie & Iqbal, Najaf, 2023. "Spillovers between green and dirty cryptocurrencies and socially responsible investments around the war in Ukraine," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 143-162.
    16. Soojung Ahn & Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 291-299, January.
    17. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Karamti, Chiraz & Jeribi, Ahmed, 2023. "Stock markets from COVID-19 to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Structural breaks in interactive effects panels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    20. Marta Anita Karaś & Michał Boda, 2024. "Stabilność i wyniki finansowe banków w krajach Europy graniczących z konfliktem militarnym w Ukrainie," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 64-111.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iatrcp:344185. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iatrcea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.