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Global Economic Effects of War-Induced Agricultural Export Declines from Ukraine

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  • Countryman, Amanda M.
  • Litvinov, Valentyn
  • Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan
  • Bogonos, Mariia
  • Nivievskyi, Oleg

Abstract

The war in Ukraine caused export disruptions that jeopardized the availability and affordability of agricultural and food products around the world. This research employs a computable general equilibrium modeling framework to understand the global economic effects of war‐induced agricultural export declines from Ukraine, given the inability to export through the Black Sea. Results show net global welfare losses ranging from more than $5 billion to nearly $20 billion depending on the success of transport through European Solidarity Lanes.
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Suggested Citation

  • Countryman, Amanda M. & Litvinov, Valentyn & Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan & Bogonos, Mariia & Nivievskyi, Oleg, 2023. "Global Economic Effects of War-Induced Agricultural Export Declines from Ukraine," 2023: The Future of (Ag-) Trade and Trade Governance in Times of Economic Sanctions and Declining Multilateralism, December 10-12, Clearwater Beach, FL 339542, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iats23:339542
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.339542
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    1. repec:ags:aaea22:335482 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Goyal, Raghav & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "Agricultural commodity markets in the wake of the black sea grain initiative," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and global trade reallocations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
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    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Farm Management; Financial Economics; International Relations/Trade;
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