IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jforec/v5y2023i1p19-373d1104608.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil

Author

Listed:
  • Florin Aliu

    (Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, Okružní 517/10, 370 01 České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

  • Jiří Kučera

    (Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, Okružní 517/10, 370 01 České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

  • Simona Hašková

    (Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, Okružní 517/10, 370 01 České Budějovice, Czech Republic)

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 accelerated agricultural commodity prices and raised food insecurities worldwide. Ukraine and Russia are the leading global suppliers of wheat, corn, barley and sunflower oil. For this purpose, we investigated the relationship among these four agricultural commodities and, at the same time, predicted their future performance. The series covers the period from 1 January 1990 to 1 August 2022, based on monthly frequencies. The VAR impulse response function, variance decomposition, Granger Causality Test and vector error correction model were used to analyze relationships between variables. The results indicate that corn prices are an integral part of price changes in wheat, barley and sunflower oil. Wheat prices are also essential but with a weaker influence than that of corn. The additional purpose of this study was to forecast their price changes ten months ahead. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VECM) fanchart estimates an average price decline in corn, wheat, barley and sunflower oil in the range of 10%. From a policy perspective, the findings provide reliable signals for countries exposed to food insecurities and inflationary risk. Recognizing the limitations that predictions maintain, the results provide modest signals for relevant agencies, international regulatory authorities, retailers and low-income countries. Moreover, stakeholders can become informed about their price behavior and the causal relationship they hold with each other.

Suggested Citation

  • Florin Aliu & Jiří Kučera & Simona Hašková, 2023. "Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:5:y:2023:i:1:p:19-373:d:1104608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/19/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/19/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    2. Cornelis Gardebroek & Manuel A. Hernandez & Miguel Robles, 2016. "Market interdependence and volatility transmission among major crops," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 141-155, March.
    3. Miranda Svanidze & Linde Götz & Dmytro Serebrennikov, 2022. "The influence of Russia's 2010/2011 wheat export ban on spatial market integration and transaction costs of grain markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 1083-1099, June.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    5. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    6. Michael Pedersen, 2011. "Propagation of Shocks to Food and Energy Prices: an International Comparison," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 648, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Olga Dodd & Adrian Fernández-Pérez & Simon Sosvilla-Rivero, 2024. "Currency and commodity return relationship under extreme geopolitical risks: evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 46-55, January.
    8. Stephan Dietrich & Valerio Giuffrida & Bruno Martorano & Georg Schmerzeck, 2022. "COVID‐19 policy responses, mobility, and food prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 569-588, March.
    9. Roman V. Gordeev & Anton I. Pyzhev & Evgeniya V. Zander, 2022. "Does Climate Change Influence Russian Agriculture? Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
    10. José de Gregorio, 2012. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation," Working Papers wp359, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    11. Soojung Ahn & Dongin Kim & Sandro Steinbach, 2023. "The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 291-299, January.
    12. Svanidze, Miranda & Götz, Linde & Serebrennikov, Dmytro, 2022. "The influence of Russia's 2010/2011 wheat export ban on spatial market integration and transaction costs of grain markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 1083-1099.
    13. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    14. Espitia,Alvaro & Rocha,Nadia & Ruta,Michele, 2020. "Covid-19 and Food Protectionism : The Impact of the Pandemic and Export Restrictions on World Food Markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9253, The World Bank.
    15. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2016. "Macroeconomic Effects of Disruptions in Global Food Commodity Markets: Evidence for the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 183-286.
    16. Jasmien De Winne & Gert Peersman, 2016. "Macroeconomic Effects of Disruptions in Global Food Commodity Markets: Evidence for the United States," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 183-286.
    17. Kinateder, Harald & Campbell, Ross & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2021. "Safe haven in GFC versus COVID-19: 100 turbulent days in the financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    18. Marek Vochozka & Svatopluk Janek & Zuzana Rowland, 2023. "Coffee as an Identifier of Inflation in Selected US Agglomerations," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, January.
    19. Anatolijs Prohorovs, 2022. "Russia’s War in Ukraine: Consequences for European Countries’ Businesses and Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-15, July.
    20. Algieri, Bernardina & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Koch, Nicolas, 2017. "A tale of two tails: Explaining extreme events in financialized agricultural markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 256-269.
    21. Miranda Svanidze & Ivan Đurić, 2021. "Global Wheat Market Dynamics: What Is the Role of the EU and the Black Sea Wheat Exporters?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-13, August.
    22. Loretta J. Mester, 2022. "The Role of Inflation Expectations in Monetary Policymaking: A Practitioner’s Perspective," Speech 94404, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    23. Ajanovic, Amela, 2011. "Biofuels versus food production: Does biofuels production increase food prices?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 2070-2076.
    24. Rico Ihle & Ziv Bar‐Nahum & Oleg Nivievskyi & Ofir D. Rubin, 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the synchronisation of global commodity prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(4), pages 775-796, October.
    25. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    26. Clark Lundberg & Ryan Abman, 2022. "Maize price volatility and deforestation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 693-716, March.
    27. Madhu Khanna & Deepak Rajagopal & David Zilberman, 2021. "Lessons Learned from US Experience with Biofuels: Comparing the Hype with the Evidence," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 67-86.
    28. Just, Małgorzata & Echaust, Krzysztof, 2022. "Dynamic spillover transmission in agricultural commodity markets: What has changed after the COVID-19 threat?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    29. Vasily Astrov & Mahdi Ghodsi & Richard Grieveson & Mario Holzner & Artem Kochnev & Michael Landesmann & Olga Pindyuk & Robert Stehrer & Maryna Tverdostup & Alexandra Bykova, 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian, economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 331-381, May.
    30. Svanidze, Miranda & Đurić, Ivan, 2021. "Global wheat market dynamics: What is the role of the EU and the Black Sea wheat exporters?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(8).
    31. Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Johnson & Michael Helmar & Harry Baumes, 2014. "Long-run and Short-run Co-movements in Energy Prices and the Prices of Agricultural Feedstocks for Biofuel," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 991-1008.
    32. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo, 2019. "Price volatility and speculative activities in futures commodity markets: A combination of combinations of p-values test," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 40-54.
    33. Kapustová, Z. & Kapusta, J. & Bielik, P., 2018. "Food-Biofuels Interactions: The Case of the U.S. Biofuels Market," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 10(4), December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
    2. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "The rolling causal structure between the Chinese stock index and futures," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(4), pages 491-509, November.
    3. Isabel Cortés-Jiménez & Manuel Artís, 2005. "The role of the tourism sector in economic development - Lessons from the Spanish experience," ERSA conference papers ersa05p488, European Regional Science Association.
    4. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S Hiremath, 2020. "Do external commercial borrowings and financial development affect exports?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1796269-179, January.
    5. Fredj Jawadi & Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2009. "Nonlinear Cointegration Relationships Between Non‐Life Insurance Premiums and Financial Markets," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 753-783, September.
    6. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    7. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    8. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Fu, Hsin-Chia, 2013. "The causal relationship between energy resources and economic growth in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 793-801.
    9. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Martha Misas A, 1995. "La tasa de interés en Colombia: 1958-1992," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 14(27), pages 63-94, June.
    10. Guender, Alfred V. & Lees, Kirdan, 1999. "Optimal Revenue Smoothing: The Case of New Zealand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 597-617, July.
    11. Héctor F. Salazar-Núñez & Francisco Venegas-Martínez & José Antonio Lozano-Díez, 2022. "Assessing the interdependence among renewable and non-renewable energies, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in Mexico," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(11), pages 12850-12866, November.
    12. Sandrine Lardic & Valérie Mignon, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and the term structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 723-736, December.
    13. Neeraj, & Panigrahi, Prasanta K., 2017. "Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 481(C), pages 284-313.
    14. Efimova, Olga & Serletis, Apostolos, 2014. "Energy markets volatility modelling using GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 264-273.
    15. Saghaian, Sayed & Nemati, Mehdi & Walters, Cory & Chen, Bo, 2018. "Asymmetric Price Volatility Transmission between U.S. Biofuel, Corn, and Oil Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 43(1), January.
    16. Bonato, Matteo, 2019. "Realized correlations, betas and volatility spillover in the agricultural commodity market: What has changed?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 184-202.
    17. Boswijk, H. Peter & Franses, Philip Hans & van Dijk, Dick, 2010. "Cointegration in a historical perspective," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 156-159, September.
    18. Halil Alt ntas & Melike Kum, 2013. "Multivariate Granger Causality between Electricity Generation, Exports, Prices and Economic Growth in Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 41-51.
    19. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2022. "Identifying supply and demand shocks in the South African Economy, 1960–2020," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(3), pages 349-389, September.
    20. Chen, Jyh-Yaw Joseph & Giles, David E.A., 2004. "Gender convergence in crime: Evidence from Canadian adult offense charge data," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 593-606.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:5:y:2023:i:1:p:19-373:d:1104608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.