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Covid-19 and Food Protectionism : The Impact of the Pandemic and Export Restrictions on World Food Markets

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  • Espitia,Alvaro
  • Rocha,Nadia
  • Ruta,Michele

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of Covid-19 and uncooperative trade policies on world food markets. It quantifies the initial shock due to the pandemic under the assumption that products that are more labor intensive in production are more affected through workers' morbidity and containment policies. It then estimates how escalating export restrictions to shield domestic food markets could magnify the initial shock. The analysis shows that, in the quarter following the outbreak of the pandemic, the global export supply of food could decrease between 6 and 20 percent and global prices increase between 2 and 6 percent on average. Escalating export restrictions would multiply the initial shock by a factor of 3, with world food prices rising by up to 18 percent on average. Import food dependent countries, which are in large majority developing and least developed countries, would be most affected.

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  • Espitia,Alvaro & Rocha,Nadia & Ruta,Michele, 2020. "Covid-19 and Food Protectionism : The Impact of the Pandemic and Export Restrictions on World Food Markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9253, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9253
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Trade and Globalization

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    Cited by:

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    2. Florin Aliu & Jiří Kučera & Simona Hašková, 2023. "Agricultural Commodities in the Context of the Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from Corn, Wheat, Barley, and Sunflower Oil," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Maximilian Koppenberg & Martina Bozzola & Tobias Dalhaus & Stefan Hirsch, 2021. "Mapping potential implications of temporary COVID‐19 export bans for the food supply in importing countries using precrisis trade flows," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 25-43, January.
    4. Petrescu-Mag, Ruxandra Malina & Petrescu, Dacinia Crina & Todoran, Silviu Ciprian & Petrescu-Mag, Ioan Valentin, 2021. "Us and them. Is the COVID-19 pandemic a driver for xenophobia in land transactions in Romania?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Samir Mili & Maria Bouhaddane, 2021. "Forecasting Global Developments and Challenges in Olive Oil Supply and Demand: A Delphi Survey from Spain," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, February.
    6. Mohammad Hasan Mobarok & Wyatt Thompson & Theodoros Skevas, 2021. "COVID-19 and Policy Impacts on the Bangladesh Rice Market and Food Security," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Amjad Masood & Junaid Ahmed & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2022. "Gravity of Covid-19," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(1), pages 60-68.
      • Masood, Amjad & Ahmed, Junaid & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2021. "Gravity of Covid-19," MPRA Paper 109651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Claudiu-Cătălin MUNTEANU, 2020. "Food Insecurity And Pandemics: Addressing The Food Shock Of Covid-19 In Romania," Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics, vol. 17(2), pages 265-273.
    9. Anna Zielińska-Chmielewska & Dobrosława Mruk-Tomczak & Anna Wielicka-Regulska, 2021. "Qualitative Research on Solving Difficulties in Maintaining Continuity of Food Supply Chain on the Meat Market during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-19, September.
    10. Al-Ababneh, Hassan Ali & Osmonova, Ainur & Dumanska, Ilona & Matkovskyi, Petro & Kalynovskyy, Andriy, 2021. "Analysis of export of agricultural products in the context of the global food crisis," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 7(4), December.
    11. Marco Grassia & Giuseppe Mangioni & Stefano Schiavo & Silvio Traverso, 2020. "(Unintended) Consequences of export restrictions on medical goods during the Covid-19 pandemic," Papers 2007.11941, arXiv.org.
    12. Mindy L. Mallory, 2021. "Impact of COVID‐19 on Medium‐Term Export Prospects for Soybeans, Corn, Beef, Pork, and Poultry," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(1), pages 292-303, March.
    13. Simon Evenett & Matteo Fiorini & Johannes Fritz & Bernard Hoekman & Piotr Lukaszuk & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Filippo Santi & Anirudh Shingal, 2022. "Trade policy responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic crisis: Evidence from a new data set," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 342-364, February.
    14. Luciano Gutierrez & Guillaume Pierre & Maria Sabbagh, 2022. "Agricultural Grain Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis, Insights from a GVAR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-13, August.
    15. B. A. Kheifets & V. Yu. Chernova, 2022. "Effects of Export Control Policy on Food Security: The Case of the Grain Market in Russia," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 211-217, April.
    16. Marta Wincewicz-Bosy & Adam Sadowski & Katarzyna Wąsowska & Zbigniew Galar & Małgorzata Dymyt, 2022. "Military Food Supply Chain during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-22, February.
    17. Priyanka Mitra & Rajib Shaw & Vibhas Sukhwani & Bijon Kumer Mitra & Md Abiar Rahman & Sameer Deshkar & Devesh Sharma, 2021. "Urban–Rural Partnership Framework to Enhance Food–Energy–Water Security in the Post-COVID-19 Era," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-16, November.
    18. Wenshou Yan & Yan Cai & Faqin Lin & Dessie Tarko Ambaw, 2021. "The Impacts of Trade Restrictions on World Agricultural Price Volatility during the COVID‐19 Pandemic," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(6), pages 139-158, November.
    19. Roengchai Tansuchat & Suparak Suriyankietkaew & Phallapa Petison & Khanyapuss Punjaisri & Suthep Nimsai, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on Sustainable Agriculture Value Chain Development in Thailand and ASEAN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-29, October.
    20. Samuel Kwaku Agyei & Zangina Isshaq & Siaw Frimpong & Anokye Mohammed Adam & Ahmed Bossman & Oliver Asiamah, 2021. "COVID‐19 and food prices in sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 102-113, April.
    21. Nashwan M. A. Saif & Jianping Ruan & Bojan Obrenovic, 2021. "Sustaining Trade during COVID-19 Pandemic: Establishing a Conceptual Model Including COVID-19 Impact," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-20, May.

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    Keywords

    International Trade and Trade Rules; Trade and Multilateral Issues; Trade Policy; Rules of Origin; Climate Change and Agriculture; Crops and Crop Management Systems;
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