IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/109651.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Gravity of Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • Masood, Amjad
  • Ahmed, Junaid
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada

Abstract

In this study, we analyze the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on bilateral trade using monthly data from January to June 2020. Imports of the OECD member states are analysed using a structural gravity model of trade estimated with the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. The analysis is conducted for total imports and for fruit and vegetables. Our findings show a significantly negative impact of the pandemic on both import measures, which is more pronounced for the perishable goods than for aggregate imports.

Suggested Citation

  • Masood, Amjad & Ahmed, Junaid & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2021. "Gravity of Covid-19," MPRA Paper 109651, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:109651
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/109651/1/MPRA_paper_109651.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/111455/9/MPRA_paper_111455.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Barbero & Juan José de Lucio & Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo, 2021. "Effects of COVID-19 on trade flows: Measuring their impact through government policy responses," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Maliszewska,Maryla & Mattoo,Aaditya & Van Der Mensbrugghe,Dominique, 2020. "The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on GDP and Trade : A Preliminary Assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9211, The World Bank.
    3. Harald Oberhofer & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2021. "Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(1), pages 338-375, February.
    4. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 0. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    5. Warwick McKibbin & Roshen Fernando, 2021. "The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 1-30, Summer.
    6. Egger, Peter & Larch, Mario, 2008. "Interdependent preferential trade agreement memberships: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 384-399, December.
    7. Espitia,Alvaro & Rocha,Nadia & Ruta,Michele, 2020. "Covid-19 and Food Protectionism : The Impact of the Pandemic and Export Restrictions on World Food Markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9253, The World Bank.
    8. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    9. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    10. Abel Brodeur & David Gray & Anik Islam & Suraiya Bhuiyan, 2021. "A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 1007-1044, September.
    11. Keogh-Brown, Marcus Richard & Smith, Richard David, 2008. "The economic impact of SARS: How does the reality match the predictions?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 110-120, October.
    12. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Kohei Imai, 2022. "Who sends me face masks? Evidence for the impacts of COVID‐19 on international trade in medical goods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 365-385, February.
    13. Dunia Rassy & Richard D. Smith, 2013. "The economic impact of H1N1 on Mexico's tourist and pork sectors," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(7), pages 824-834, July.
    14. Rebecca Freeman & Samuel Pienknagura, 2019. "Are all trade agreements equal? The role of distance in shaping the effect of economic integration agreements on trade flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(2), pages 257-285, May.
    15. Abban, Stanley, 2020. "The Effect of the Ebola Virus Disease on intra-regional trade in West Africa," MPRA Paper 100587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.
    17. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    18. George E. Battese, 1997. "A Note On The Estimation Of Cobb‐Douglas Production Functions When Some Explanatory Variables Have Zero Values," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1‐3), pages 250-252, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masood, Amjad, 2021. "Anatomy of the trade-effect of regional trade agreements and agenda for future research," MPRA Paper 108284, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Das, Sanchita Basu & Sen, Rahul, 2022. "Trade Interdependencies in COVID-19-Related Essential Medical Goods: Role of Trade Facilitation and Cooperation for the Asian Economies," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 666, Asian Development Bank.
    3. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 431-451, October.
    4. Satoshi Tanaka, 2022. "Economic Impacts of SARS/MERS/COVID‐19 in Asian Countries," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 41-61, January.
    5. Omodara Damilola & Ikhile Deborah & Ogundana Oyedele & Akin-Akinyosoye Kehinde, 2020. "Global pandemic and business performance: Impacts and responses," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(6), pages 01-11, October.
    6. George, Ammu & Li, Changtai & Lim, Jing Zhi & Xie, Taojun, 2021. "From SARS to COVID-19: The evolving role of China-ASEAN production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Quy Ta, 2022. "Pandemics and Economic Growth: Evidence from the 1968 H3N2 Influenza," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 73-93, March.
    8. Alvaro Espitia & Aaditya Mattoo & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Deborah Winkler, 2022. "Pandemic trade: COVID‐19, remote work and global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 561-589, February.
    9. Ka Shing Cheung & Chung Yim Yiu & Chuyi Xiong, 2021. "Housing Market in the Time of Pandemic: A Price Gradient Analysis from the COVID-19 Epicentre in China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Dhruv Sharma & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Stanislao Gualdi & Marco Tarzia & Francesco Zamponi, 2020. "V-, U-, L-, or W-shaped economic recovery after COVID: Insights from an Agent Based Model," Papers 2006.08469, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
    11. Atif Saleem Butt, 2022. "Mitigating the Spread of COVID-19: What are firms doing and what they need to do?," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    12. Stephany, Fabian & Dunn, Michael & Sawyer, Steven & Lehdonvirta, Vili, 2020. "Distancing Bonus or Downscaling Loss? The Changing Livelihood of US Online Workers in Times of COVID-19," SocArXiv vmg34, Center for Open Science.
    13. Orhan Cengiz & Müge Manga, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1195-1219, October.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2022. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and European Trade Flows: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9848, CESifo.
    15. Fang, Da & Guo, Yan, 2022. "Flow of goods to the shock of COVID-19 and toll-free highway policy: Evidence from logistics data in China," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    16. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & D'Imperio, Paolo & Felici, Francesco, 2022. "The fiscal response to the Italian COVID-19 crisis: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
    18. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.
    19. Sadananda Prusty & Anubha & Saurabh Gupta, 2021. "On the Road to Recovery: The Role of Post-Lockdown Stimulus Package," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 11(2), pages 206-224, June.
    20. Torsten Heinrich, 2021. "Epidemics in modern economies," Chemnitz Economic Papers 045, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised May 2021.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Bilateral Trade; Structural Gravity; PPML; OECD;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:109651. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.