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Pandemic trade: COVID‐19, remote work and global value chains

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  • Alvaro Espitia
  • Aaditya Mattoo
  • Nadia Rocha
  • Michele Ruta
  • Deborah Winkler

Abstract

This paper studies the trade effects of COVID‐19 using monthly disaggregated trade data for 28 countries and multiple trading partners from the beginning of the pandemic to June 2020. Regression results based on a sector‐level gravity model show that the negative trade effects induced by COVID‐19 shocks varied widely across sectors. Sectors more amenable to remote work contracted less throughout the pandemic. Importantly, participation in global value chains increased traders’ vulnerability to shocks suffered by trading partners, but it also reduced their vulnerability to domestic shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvaro Espitia & Aaditya Mattoo & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Deborah Winkler, 2022. "Pandemic trade: COVID‐19, remote work and global value chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 561-589, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:45:y:2022:i:2:p:561-589
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13117
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    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2024. "The Covid‐19 pandemic and European trade flows: Evidence from a dynamic panel model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2563-2580, July.
    3. Bas, Maria & Fernandes, Ana & Paunov, Caroline, 2024. "How resilient was trade to COVID-19?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
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    5. Cristina Constantinescu & Ana Margarida Fernandes & Arti Grover & Stavros Poupakis & Santiago Reyes, 2022. "Globally Engaged Firms in the Covid-19 Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 9711, CESifo.
    6. Orhan Cengiz & Müge Manga, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1195-1219, October.
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    8. Ruohan Wu, 2023. "COVID‐19's impacts on business activities and female workers: Empirical evidence from global developing economies," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 163-197, January.
    9. Kozhaya, Mireille, 2022. "The double burden: The impact of school closures on labor force participation of mothers," Ruhr Economic Papers 956, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    10. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Container Trade Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322364, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Katja Zajc Kejžar & Alan Velić & Jože P. Damijan, 2022. "COVID‐19, trade collapse and GVC linkages: European experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3475-3506, November.
    12. Bojan Obrenovic & Goran Oblakovic & Asa Romeo Asa, 2024. "Bibliometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Implications during the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-17, March.
    13. Gianmarco Cariola, 2023. "Trade in the time of COVID-19: an empirical analysis based on Italian data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1427, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Khorana, Sangeeta & Escaith, Hubert & Ali, Salamat & Kumari, Sushma & Do, Quynh, 2022. "The changing contours of global value chains post-COVID: Evidence from the Commonwealth," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 75-86.
    15. Kowalska Aleksandra & Budzyńska Anna & Białowąs Tomasz, 2022. "Food export restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic: Real and potential effects on food security," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 58(4), pages 409-424, December.
    16. Jonas Böschemeier & Karsten Mau, 2023. "Foreign Supply Shocks and the Structure of Trade in a Small Open Economy," De Economist, Springer, vol. 171(4), pages 303-342, December.
    17. Carter, Colin A. & Steinbach, Sandro & Zhuang, Xiting, 2022. "Global Shipping Container Disruptions and U.S. Agricultural Exports," Working Papers 320397, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    18. Lebastard, Laura & Matani, Marco & Serafini, Roberta, 2023. "GVC exporter performance during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of supply bottlenecks," Working Paper Series 2766, European Central Bank.
    19. Khan, Ali Nawaz & Jabeen, Fauzia & Mehmood, Khalid & Ali Soomro, Mohsin & Bresciani, Stefano, 2023. "Paving the way for technological innovation through adoption of artificial intelligence in conservative industries," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    20. Bartosz Korinth, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on International Tourism Income in Tourism Receiving Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-12, October.
    21. Ruohan Wu, 2023. "Contingent impacts of COVID relief policies under global value chain shortage," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 877-914, October.

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